Senior Policy Advisor of 'Alliance Against a Nuclear Iran': Israel Has Eliminated a Generation of Hezbollah Leadership

Norman Roule, senior advisor to the 'Alliance Against a Nuclear Iran', in an interview with Voice of America regarding his assessment of the killing of Hassan Nasrallah stated: 'Israeli defense forces have eliminated a generation of Hezbollah's leadership apparatus. What they have lost is not limited to administrative coordination. They have lost decades of experience from wars and conflicts in Syria and in relation to Tehran. The Israeli defense forces have changed Hezbollah's identity.' He commented on the potential successor to Nasrallah, saying: 'Naim Qassem, who is a potential successor to Hassan Nasrallah, does not have the same relationship with the leader of the Islamic Republic as Nasrallah did. He is not internationally recognized. It is even unclear whether Naim Qassem can survive, considering that Israel has identified and eliminated so many commanders. The change in this organization is still unclear as this conflict is ongoing.' Roule discussed the impact of Nasrallah's death on the Islamic Republic, stating: 'The Islamic Republic is facing two issues. First, how to maintain Hezbollah as part of the resistance axis, just as they are doing with Hamas. Diplomatic action is needed for this because a ceasefire could keep Hezbollah where it is. The Islamic Republic must also consider the internal situation in Lebanon to ensure that no one potentially removes Hezbollah from its position of power. Then the Islamic Republic will seek to rebuild Hezbollah using the Quds Force and provide them support through Syria. The second issue is that the Islamic Republic has always had successful operations against Israel and the U.S. through its proxies. However, since October 7, it has been unable to support Hamas or the Houthis and has only provided some information and personnel to them in Yemen. Now we see that it cannot support Hezbollah in Lebanon. There is certainly a serious discussion happening in Tehran with the presence of Quds Force officials and others because they want to say we need to find a way to stand by our proxies. The challenge is that the presence of U.S. military forces in the region and Israel's air defense capabilities have made any missile attack have a very low chance of success. The support line from Tehran to Hezbollah in Lebanon is continuously being attacked by Israel in Syria. Syria has also decided to withdraw from this conflict. This will be a serious challenge for them. I am concerned about terrorism. Activities outside the region in Africa, Latin America, and Asia are also worrisome. I think all possibilities should be kept open.' He compared the impact of Nasrallah's death to that of Qassem Soleimani, stating: 'It is certainly similar to the loss of Qassem Soleimani. Both were trusted and valuable advisors to the leadership in Iran. Both faced favorable positions from the Quds Force and the hardliners in Iran. Both were key pillars in the export of power by the Islamic Republic to the world. Therefore, in terms of loss, it is equally significant.' Regarding whether this presents an opportunity for Lebanon and the allies of the central government to have overarching authority in the country, he said: 'This is a very difficult question because the issue is not just one variable, namely Hezbollah's power. It involves several variables and how politicians and decision-makers in Lebanon and the Lebanese military each assess their own capabilities. This is a current and ongoing issue. What they think about it and what they can do will take time. Certainly, many support the return and formation of a strong government in Lebanon, but Hezbollah is not the only reason Lebanon still does not have a president. Hezbollah also has thousands of supporters in Lebanon that cannot be ignored, and even though the main management and leadership classes of Hezbollah have currently been eliminated, there are still hundreds of mid-level commanders and thousands of armed Hezbollah forces, and dealing with them will take time. However, I think this is a question that still does not have a convincing answer regarding what the Lebanese government can do, but the ideal is that both security is established and the international community stands by the people of Lebanon and provides financial and political support, but the situation is difficult. We are in the midst of elections in the U.S. and it is still much more complicated than we can predict.