Seoul: North Korea Likely to Seek Negotiations in 2018

The ministry overseeing North Korean affairs in South Korea has predicted that North Korea will continue its efforts to be recognized as a nuclear power in the coming year and will likely seek a way to negotiate with the United States. Concurrently, a newspaper has reported, citing security officials in Seoul, the possibility of a new satellite launch by Pyongyang. The latest reports on North Korea come as the UN Security Council has approved a new round of international sanctions against Pyongyang, which the North Korean government has described as a 'war-like action.' The Ministry of Unification, the agency monitoring North Korean affairs in Seoul, stated in a report published on December 26 that Pyongyang is 'likely to continue increasing its missile and nuclear capabilities while simultaneously seeking an external escape route.' According to this ministry, North Korea will soon make efforts to mitigate the consequences of international sanctions, but these effects are expected to manifest in the country next year. In 2017, despite unprecedented tensions, threats, and warnings, North Korea avoided negotiations and continued its military and missile tests; last summer, it conducted a new nuclear test reportedly related to a 'hydrogen bomb.' North Korea's actions have faced international condemnation, and the U.S. President has threatened that the country will face 'fire and fury.' However, the U.S. State Department still expresses hope for negotiations and finding a diplomatic solution. Pyongyang claims that its missile and nuclear programs are 'preventive' and for 'defense against nuclear attack.' The Ministry of Unification states that due to the consequences of sanctions, North Korea is likely to seek negotiations between Seoul and Pyongyang and find a way to negotiate with the United States in the coming months. Part of Pyongyang's potential policy in the upcoming months may be revealed in Kim Jong-un's New Year's speech. Alongside these predictions, the 'JoongAng Ilbo' newspaper in Seoul has reported, citing South Korean security officials, that it seems Pyongyang will soon launch a satellite. These officials have stated that North Korea may launch a new model of the 'Kwangmyongsong' satellite. Last March, Pyongyang tested an advanced engine for satellite launches, which is believed to also have applications in ballistic missiles. The latest round of UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea was approved at the end of December and targets items such as the import of oil products and workers employed abroad. According to estimates from the South Korean government, the current sanctions against North Korea have reduced its exports to China - Pyongyang's main supporter - by more than 30%, and signs of a sudden increase in the prices of several goods and basic necessities are also being observed.