Significant Decline in Iran's Oil Exports Amid Tensions with Israel
Event Summary: Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed Israel's Defense Minister. The U.S. Secretary of State urged Israel to take more actions to deliver aid to Gaza. According to Axios, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia are negotiating a security agreement that does not include normalization of relations between Riyadh and Israel, unlike previous discussions. Antony Blinken stated that the extremist group Hamas has once again rejected a ceasefire proposal. The Lebanese Health Ministry reported that the number of casualties from Israeli attacks has exceeded three thousand. Two senior commanders of the IRGC reiterated their promise to attack Israel.
Significant Decline in Iran's Oil Exports Amid Tensions with Israel
Event Summary: Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed Israel's Defense Minister. The U.S. Secretary of State urged Israel to take more actions to deliver aid to Gaza. According to Axios, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia are negotiating a security agreement that does not include normalization of relations between Riyadh and Israel, unlike previous discussions. Antony Blinken stated that the extremist group Hamas has once again rejected a ceasefire proposal. The Lebanese Health Ministry reported that the number of casualties from Israeli attacks has exceeded three thousand. Two senior commanders of the IRGC reiterated their promise to attack Israel.
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Protests in Israel Following Sudden Dismissal of Defense Minister In the wake of the dismissal of Yoav Gallant from the position of Defense Minister by the Prime Minister, hundreds of protesters took to the streets. After families of Israeli hostages held by the extremist group Hamas and opposition parties called for protests against Benjamin Netanyahu's decision, demonstrations began in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Caesarea on Tuesday evening. Some protesters blocked the entrances and exits of the Ayalon Highway, which connects Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.
Iran's Oil Exports Declined Sharply Amid Conflict with Israel Reuters reported, citing informed sources and tanker tracking companies, that Iran's oil exports have sharply declined due to the potential threat of Israeli attacks on the Islamic Republic's oil facilities last month. Estimates from the commodity intelligence firm, Kpler, indicate that Iran's daily oil exports in October fell by 340,000 barrels compared to the previous month. The energy consulting firm, Vortexa, also stated that the most significant drop in Iran's oil exports occurred in the first half of October, with oil loadings during this period plummeting from 24 million barrels to 16 million barrels compared to the same period in previous months. The decline in Iran's oil loadings has also led Iran to reduce discounts to Chinese refineries. Last year, Iran offered a $13 discount per barrel to small and independent Chinese refineries, which are its only oil customers after Syria. Reuters notes that this figure dropped to $5 to $6 earlier this year and fell below $4 last month and this month.
Yoav Gallant, Israel's Defense Minister, Dismissed The Prime Minister of Israel announced that he has dismissed his cabinet's Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant. Benjamin Netanyahu explained in a video message released on Tuesday evening that the management of the war requires complete understanding between him and the Defense Minister, and despite productive cooperation during months of war, his trust in the Defense Minister has been lost due to the Minister's lack of support for all decisions made by the cabinet.
Two Senior IRGC Commanders Again Promised to Attack Israel Continuing the threats from Iranian military officials regarding a third attack on Israel, the Deputy Commander of the IRGC stated that the people of Iran should expect a "response to Israel's crimes." Iraj Masjedi, the Deputy Coordinator of the IRGC Quds Force, also stated at the fortieth memorial of Hassan Nasrallah, the former Secretary-General of Hezbollah Lebanon, that the Islamic Republic has repeatedly told Israel and the U.S. that if they threaten Iran, we will respond with power, and they should expect such an issue. He added that these two countries should not expect "restraint" from the Islamic Republic. On November 5, Israel attacked several Iranian military sites in response to Iran's missile attack on October 1, which reportedly caused significant damage to some of these sites.
Criticism from a Democratic Congressman Over Suspension of American Airlines Flights to Israel Richie Torres, a Democratic Representative in the U.S. House, wrote to executives of American Airlines, United Airlines, and Delta, stating that the suspension of all flights by these three companies on the U.S.-Israel route amounts to an "effective boycott of Israel." According to Fox News on Monday, November 14, Mr. Torres wrote to the heads of the three major American airlines that "my understanding is that for travel to Israel, the only option is El Al (one of Israel's commercial airlines) with its high prices. The lack of access to air travel (by the three American airlines) has led to increased prices and the lack of competition has resulted in fewer flights available to Israel, leaving customers facing a true monopoly." Richie Torres also told Fox News Digital that travel to Israel for Americans has essentially become unfair due to the high cost of travel (with El Al). Thirteen months after the extremist group Hamas attacked Israeli territory, leading to ongoing conflict between the Israeli army and Iranian proxy groups in the region, no major American airline operates flights on the U.S.-Israel route. Only Israeli airlines El Al, Arkia, and Israir have a few flights to New York. Major airlines announced this week that they have extended the suspension of flights to Israel until next fall. According to Mr. Torres, this long suspension amounts to a practical boycott of Israel, and if these companies intend to indefinitely suspend flights to Israel, they should clearly explain this to the public. This Congressman stated that although there is a distance between the request from the Palestinian-supporting BDS movement to boycott and isolate Israel and the current practical sanctions due to the lack of flights, it is not unlikely that BDS has played a role in the decisions of the airlines. He said it is naive to think that the U.S. airline industry is immune to intense pressures from BDS. The U.S. aviation service has allowed each of these airlines to independently decide on the risks of flying to Israel.
Israel Must Be Prepared to Destroy Iran's Nuclear Facilities Benny Gantz, leader of the "National Camp" party in Israel, called for his country to prioritize attacking the nuclear sites of the Islamic Republic of Iran. According to Israeli media, Mr. Gantz stated at a party meeting that Israel must be "politically, economically, and militarily prepared to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities." He said that as someone who knows Israel's capabilities, he sends a message to the Islamic Republic that "there is no place in Iran and facilities in this country that are safe, and Iran's attacks will ultimately lead to severe blows to military capabilities, further collapse of the economy, and rebellion of the Iranian people against their ruling government." Gantz, who previously served as the Chief of Staff of the Army and Minister of Defense of Israel, added: "I advise Iranian leaders to calculate correctly."
Israeli Media: No Signs of Imminent Iranian Attack Observed Channel 13 of Israel reported, based on assessments from military and security sources in the country, that no signs of an imminent attack by the Islamic Republic of Iran on Israel have been observed. The military reporter of this channel stated that Iran has the capability to go from "zero to one hundred" in a very short time for the intended attack. According to this channel, the upcoming U.S. presidential election is one of the "main" considerations for Tehran in choosing the timing of an attack on Israel, and based on assessments, if Donald Trump wins the election, the nature of the attack on Israel will be "moderated," as Iran understands that Israel will have a freer hand for a large-scale and strong attack on Iran. Channels 12 and 13 of Israel reported on Tuesday night that regardless of the timing of a possible Iranian attack, their country continues to provide extensive military supplies to defend its interests and citizens, and the U.S. military has also transferred a squadron of its fighter jets from outside the region to Israel, in addition to deploying the "THAAD" air defense system in Israel. The military has not yet provided differing recommendations to the Israeli people regarding necessary changes to protect themselves, which would indicate an imminent Iranian attack.
U.S. Warns Iran Against New Attack on Israel The U.S. announced this week that Washington has warned Tehran that if a new attack occurs against Israel, it will not be able to prevent a broader attack on Iran. However, the Wall Street Journal reported that Iranian officials have informed Middle Eastern diplomats that Iran will respond with a "complex" reaction this time, launching different weapons, including missiles with stronger warheads, towards Israel. The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, the President, and senior commanders of the IRGC have recently emphasized the third direct military attack of their regime on Israel. However, Masoud Pezeshkian stated that establishing a ceasefire in the Gaza and Lebanon war will "influence" the nature of Iran's attack. This time, Iran has announced that its army will also participate in the third attack on Israel following the death of four members of its air defense force in the Israeli operation on November 5.
U.S. Secretary of State Urges Israel to Take More Actions to Deliver Aid to Gaza Antony Blinken, the U.S. Secretary of State, in a call with Yoav Gallant, his Israeli counterpart, once again urged Israel to take more actions to allow civilians in the Gaza Strip to access humanitarian aid. According to a statement from the U.S. State Department, Mr. Blinken and his Israeli counterpart discussed the "dire humanitarian conditions in Gaza." The U.S. Secretary of State urged Israel to take further steps to increase humanitarian assistance such as food, medicine, and other essential supplies to civilians throughout Gaza. A few days ago, Antony Blinken also called for more actions from Israel in this regard during a call with Ron Dermer, Israel's Minister of Strategic Affairs. On Monday morning, Matthew Miller, spokesperson for the U.S. State Department, emphasized that the steps Israel has taken so far in this regard have been insufficient.
"U.S. and Saudi Arabia Negotiating a Security Agreement That Does Not Include Agreement with Israel" Axios reported that U.S. and Saudi officials are negotiating a security agreement that is more limited than what was pursued last year, which was a broader agreement that included normalization of relations between Riyadh and Israel. Axios, citing three informed sources about the negotiations, reported that discussions between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia regarding this security agreement are ongoing, and last week, Musaad al-Aiban, Saudi National Security Advisor, met and discussed with U.S. officials in Washington. According to this report, despite the current security agreement being less extensive than the comprehensive defense treaty previously discussed.