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Significant Decrease in the Probability of Asteroid WY2024 Colliding with Earth

Jan 23, 2026 January 23, 2026 3 min read 📰 Radio Farda
📋 Key Takeaway

Astronomers have significantly reduced the likelihood of asteroid WY2024 colliding with Earth from 3.1% to 0.001%. This decrease is based on new observations from telescopes worldwide, and the threat level on the Torino scale has dropped to zero. The James Webb Space Telescope will continue to monitor the asteroid, ensuring preparedness for any future threats.

🔍 Quick Context Guide
💡 Bottom Line: The significant reduction in the collision risk of asteroid WY2024 alleviates immediate concerns about planetary safety.

👥 Key Players

NASA MENTIONED
Space agency of the United States
"NASA plays a crucial role in planetary defense and monitoring near-Earth objects, which is significant for global safety."
European Space Agency (ESA) MENTIONED
Intergovernmental organization dedicated to the exploration of space
"ESA contributes to international efforts in monitoring asteroids and enhancing planetary defense capabilities."
Richard Moissel MENTIONED
Head of the planetary defense office at ESA
"Moissel's insights on asteroid monitoring are vital for understanding the current state of planetary defense."
Paul Chodas MENTIONED
Director of NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS)
"Chodas oversees the identification and tracking of potentially hazardous asteroids, which is essential for global safety."

📰 What Happened

Astronomers have significantly reduced the likelihood of asteroid WY2024 colliding with Earth from 3.1% to 0.001%. This decrease is based on new observations from telescopes worldwide, and the threat level on the Torino scale has dropped to zero.

  • The asteroid was previously observed in December 2024.
  • NASA's DART mission successfully altered the trajectory of a small asteroid in 2022.

💡 Why It Matters

🇮🇷 For Iran: Iran, like other nations, benefits from international cooperation in planetary defense, which enhances global safety.
🌍 Regional: The Middle East region is not directly impacted by this specific asteroid, but regional cooperation in science and technology is important.
🌐 International: International efforts in monitoring asteroids reflect global collaboration in addressing potential existential threats.

📚 Background

Asteroids pose potential threats to Earth, and monitoring them is essential for planetary defense. The Torino scale helps assess the risk of such celestial objects.

Planetary defense Asteroid monitoring
📡 Source: NEUTRAL
📊 Confidence: 70%
The information is based on scientific observations and statements from credible space agencies.

Astronomers say the likelihood of an asteroid, which is set to pass near Earth in 2032, colliding with the planet has significantly decreased and is no longer a cause for concern. Previous estimates indicated about a three percent chance that this asteroid, named 'WY2024', would collide with Earth. This celestial object was previously observed in December 2024 by a telescope in Chile. A week ago, this asteroid recorded the highest percentage chance of collision for an observed object with Earth, with NASA announcing a 3.1 percent chance that it could collide on December 23, 1411. However, as scientists had previously anticipated, new observations from telescopes around the world gradually reduced the likelihood of a direct collision with Earth. The European Space Agency states that the probability of WY2024 colliding with Earth has now dropped to 0.001 percent, adding that the threat level on the Torino scale has reached zero. The Torino scale, also known as the 'Close Encounter Hazard Assessment' scale, is a ranking system used to measure the potential risk of asteroids or comets colliding with Earth. This scale ranges from zero to ten, with zero meaning no risk of collision or negligible risk, and ten indicating an imminent collision that could pose a serious threat to life on Earth. Despite the significant reduction in risk, the James Webb Space Telescope is set to continue observing the WY2024 asteroid in the coming months. Scientists say that even if this asteroid were heading directly towards Earth, we would be able to protect ourselves. Previously, in 2022, NASA's DART mission, which stands for 'Double Asteroid Redirection Test', successfully altered the trajectory of a small asteroid as a test. Richard Moissel, head of the planetary defense office at the European Space Agency, told AFP that monitoring this asteroid and then ruling out a direct collision with Earth was 'a very exciting and educational exercise'. Moissel stated that several new telescopes, such as 'Vera Rubin' and 'FlyEye', which are on the verge of becoming operational, will allow astronomers to detect asteroids more quickly. Paul Chodas, director of NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), told National Public Radio that most large celestial objects that pose a potential collision risk with Earth have been identified. However, many smaller objects remain unidentified. The United States Congress had asked NASA in 2005 to identify 90 percent of all near-Earth objects larger than 140 meters by 2020. Chodas states that his center at NASA has now identified 45 percent of these objects. NASA plans to launch an infrared space telescope by 2027 to hunt for near-Earth celestial bodies. This telescope could identify more asteroids than have been recorded so far.

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Translated from the original and edited for English readers. View original source →

Translation confidence: 85%

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