Significant Increase in Missile Production at Two IRGC Sites Near Tehran

Reuters reported based on new satellite images that Iran has undertaken a "significant development" in ballistic missile production at two of its key missile sites. Two American researchers assessed that these military sites near Tehran have been developed to increase the production of ballistic missiles. This assessment was confirmed by "three Iranian officials" in an interview with Reuters. The report published on Monday, July 9, indicates that the expansion of Iran's sites is linked to an agreement made two years ago in the fall between Tehran and Moscow for the transfer of missiles to Russia, following the Russian army's war in Ukraine. American officials stated that Tehran is also supplying missiles to the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Hezbollah militants, both of which are proxy groups supported by Iran in the so-called "Resistance" axis in the region, and have increasingly engaged in military operations against Israel recently. An overview of the Islamic Republic's missile program shows that Reuters examined images taken by the commercial satellite company Planet Labs from the Modarres military base and the Khajir missile production complex in Iran. Both sites are under the supervision of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam, whom the Islamic Republic refers to as the father of its missile program, was killed 13 years ago in an explosion at the Modarres site (or Al-Ghadir), located 50 kilometers west of Tehran. Khajir is located southeast of Tehran, near the city of Pakdasht, and a major explosion occurred in this area in 1399 (2020) that was reportedly related to solid rocket fuel. Satellite images taken from these two sites in Farvardin and Ordibehesht of this year show an increase of more than 30 buildings at these locations. Reuters states that many of the structures are surrounded by earthen berms. Jeffrey Lewis, a researcher at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, said that these types of earthen berms are associated with missile production and are created to prevent explosions in adjacent structures during missile warhead testing. According to this researcher, the development of the Khajir site began in mid-summer last year, and the expansion of the Modarres site started in early fall of last year. Satellite images showing new changes at the Khajir site in eastern Tehran indicate that the Islamic Republic of Iran has so far stockpiled about 3,000 missiles of various models in its missile arsenal, which may be capable of carrying conventional warheads as well as potentially nuclear warheads. The "three Iranian officials" who requested anonymity in the Reuters report stated that the Khajir and Modarres sites are being developed to enhance the production of conventional ballistic missiles. One of these Iranian officials told Reuters that some of the structures at these two sites also allow for a doubling of drone production. This source added that Iran sells drones and missile production components at these sites to Russia and also supplies drones to the Houthis and missiles to Hezbollah. The Iranian delegation to the United Nations did not respond to Reuters' request for comment regarding the development of these two sites. Hezbollah also did not respond to Reuters' request for comment on this matter. One of the three Iranian officials who spoke with Reuters confirmed that the development of the Modarres site has accelerated since last year. It is unclear whether the three Iranian officials who spoke with Reuters were from the missile and drone forces of the IRGC or what motivation they had for confirming the accuracy of this report. Conversations between Iranian officials and Western news agencies confirming the accuracy of Western experts' assessments regarding the development of Iran's missile programs are rare. The commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force and other senior IRGC commanders recently supported conservative rival Masoud Pezeshkian during the Iranian presidential election campaigns. The "confirmation" of Reuters' report regarding the development of Iran's missile and drone sites by these three Iranian officials occurred three days after the announcement of Masoud Pezeshkian's victory in the second round of the Iranian presidential election, where this politician defeated his hardline rival, Saeed Jalili, and has not yet begun his work. Shortly after Iran and world powers reached an agreement on the JCPOA during Hassan Rouhani's government, the IRGC, which opposed the JCPOA, expanded its missile tests. Hassan Rouhani and his supporters at that time said that "concerned parties" sabotaged the JCPOA by launching missiles, encouraging Donald Trump to withdraw the US from the agreement. Iran's attack on Israel ended with the destruction of the majority of missiles and drones. The Islamic Republic of Iran, which considers Israel an enemy, has expanded its missile and drone program during the Gaza war. Israel emphasizes that it is at war with Iran and Tehran-affiliated groups on seven fronts. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of Iran's Aerospace Force, said last week that this force "is eager to repeat the Promise of Truth operation." Ninety-nine percent of the more than 300 missiles and drones that Iran launched towards Israel from Iranian territory and airspace during the military operation on April 14, known as the "Promise of Truth," were intercepted by Israel and its allies before entering Israeli airspace.