Silent Crisis in Tehran; '3 Million' Will Die Following an Earthquake

The head of the Tehran Disaster Prevention and Management Organization has described the city's resistance to earthquakes as 'critical,' while the head of the 'Nazr' Research Institute has warned that 3 million people could die in the event of an earthquake, criticizing policies aimed at 'reducing risks.' According to the Tehran-based newspaper 'Payam-e Ma,' Ali Nasiri, the head of the Tehran Disaster Prevention and Management Organization, stated, 'My main concern (regarding the earthquake) is the lack of coordination among responsible agencies and the fragmented perspectives; all responsible agencies want to be the leader.' He added that no new study has been conducted to 'assess Tehran's preparedness for an earthquake,' but it is certainly 'not high.' On October 21, Ali Nasiri told the 'Khabar Online' website that estimates regarding 'potential earthquake casualties in Tehran' are confidential and mentioned that 'in a potential earthquake in Tehran, people will have to fend for themselves for three days.' On the other hand, Amir Mansouri, a professor at Tehran University and head of the 'Nazr' Research Institute, reacted to the statements of the head of the Disaster Prevention and Management Organization on the social media platform X, writing, 'Who gave you the authority to hide the greatest danger threatening citizens from them? Instead of shouting and alerting the sleeping people to the danger, you are trying to conceal the reality?' The head of the 'Nazr' Research Institute also described the policies of the Islamic Republic government and Tehran's mayors aimed at reducing potential earthquake risks as 'ineffective,' stating that '3 million people' are at risk from an earthquake in the capital. According to some officials of the Islamic Republic, such as former mayor of the capital, Pirouz Hanachi, 'If an earthquake of over 7 on the Richter scale occurs under the worst conditions, meaning when people are asleep in their homes, it is predicted that 400,000 people will die in this earthquake.' Additionally, Ali Bitahli, head of the Earthquake Engineering and Risk Assessment Department at the Road, Housing, and Urban Development Research Center, criticized the 'poor quality' of construction in Iran on September 8, stating that with a 7-magnitude earthquake, about 60% of buildings would be destroyed. In this context, Ahmad Shahroudi, a housing expert, told Voice of America that an earthquake in Tehran could be due to the city's historical urban planning and catastrophic mismanagement. Ahmad Shahroudi: An earthquake in Tehran could be due to the city's historical urban planning and catastrophic mismanagement. Poor construction quality in Iran; a 7-magnitude earthquake would destroy 60% of buildings. Warning about the potential consequences of an earthquake in Tehran; the deputy of the International Earthquake Research Institute: Officials are shirking their responsibilities. Several schools in Tehran and Isfahan have been evacuated due to 'land subsidence.' Two earthquakes occurred in Damavand; eastern Tehran province shook. Warning from the Engineering System Organization; a thousand towers in Tehran are at risk of fire.