Small but Noticeable Change; Boundaries are 'Broken' in Iranian Elections

On Wednesday, May 10, the Associated Press reported that the Iranian presidential elections are breaking the boundaries of what can be publicly discussed or said on social media, from a former president's defiance of the Supreme Leader's opinion to discussions about the mass executions of the 1980s. This is a small but significant change in a system that controls all details related to elections. According to the Associated Press, the breaking of certain discussion boundaries does not mean that the Supreme Leader's unquestionable power or his control over the vetting process of candidates and the approval of laws is being challenged. However, it indicates that as more people turn to encrypted social media platforms (like Telegram) ahead of the elections, the ruling power's ability to control and suppress dissenters and critics has diminished. Initially, it seemed that Hassan Rouhani, the moderate president who signed the nuclear agreement with the international community, would easily win this election as well. However, despite signing major contracts with foreign companies, the economic benefits of lifting sanctions have not reached all people, especially low-income groups, leading to dissatisfaction. Then, we witnessed the surprising entry of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad into the competition. Ultimately, the regime's leadership, through the Guardian Council and other responsible institutions for controlling elections, prevented Ahmadinejad's candidacy by disqualifying him. However, his short campaign and defiance of the Supreme Leader's opinion challenged his authority. As the candidates began to compete, Iranians of all political leanings started using Telegram to exchange opinions, news, and images related to the event. Telegram's designers claim that about 40 million of the active users of this network are Iranian citizens. This is the first presidential election since Telegram became popular in Iran. Supporters of Ebrahim Raisi, the hardline candidate, released a video of a car bombing in the streets of Tehran, allegedly carried out by the Mujahedin-e Khalq. The aim was to justify Ebrahim Raisi's involvement in the execution of thousands of political prisoners, most of whom were members of the Mujahedin-e Khalq. At the same time, it reflects a very radical justification of the executions, an event that is one of the darkest chapters in the history of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which the government has never officially acknowledged. The Associated Press adds that Hassan Rouhani's supporters have also actively utilized Telegram. After censorship of parts of Rouhani's campaign advertisements by the state-run radio and television, where supporters chanted slogans in favor of reformist leaders who were arrested after the 2009 elections, the uncensored video was quickly published and circulated on Telegram. In an unprecedented move, Hassan Rouhani has intensified his criticisms of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). During a televised debate on Friday, Rouhani referred to a ballistic missile test in March 2016, which had the Hebrew phrase 'Israel must be wiped off the map' written on it, describing the IRGC's action as an attempt to undermine the nuclear agreement. He continued these criticisms on Monday at an election rally in Hamadan, stating, 'Tell the extremists and those who use violence that their time is over.' Some analysts believe this move by Hassan Rouhani could be dangerous. While it may help consolidate the reformists and attract voters dissatisfied with the current situation, it could also raise concerns for Ayatollah Khamenei regarding the security of the regime and his control over the country's affairs as the main decision-making power.