Speculation About Zarif's Return to Tehran

Iranian newspapers Iran and Qanoon have focused on "Mohammad Javad Zarif's extraordinary flight to Tehran" ahead of the July 1 deadline and various speculations surrounding it. Iran newspaper reported: "Mohammad Javad Zarif left Vienna for Tehran last night to consult with high-ranking officials, and will return to the negotiation table after 24 hours." Qanoon also highlighted various speculations from Iranian experts regarding "Zarif's back and forth," with the first speculation suggesting that "the probable proposal of new suggestions" from the P5+1 countries is the reason for the Iranian Foreign Minister's return. According to this newspaper, the second speculation relates to "issues of espionage and the risk of leaking the contents of the talks," while the third speculation is that "it is highly likely that the final draft of a comprehensive agreement has been prepared," and Zarif has returned to Tehran for "approval" from the Supreme Leader or to consult with the Supreme National Security Council for "final confirmation." Etemad newspaper reported on its front page about "three fateful dates in the final agreement," stating: "The final document will have three timelines: the date of agreement, the date of operation, and the date of implementation." Abrar Eghtesadi reported on the issuance of a permit for a "10% increase in dairy prices." This newspaper also quoted the Minister of Industry, Mine, and Trade in Hassan Rouhani's government about allocating a "$500 million credit line from Iran to Venezuela." Resalat newspaper focused on the statements of the Supreme Leader during a meeting with the President and senior officials of the judiciary, quoting Ali Khamenei as saying: "Those who cover up the monstrous face of America are committing treason." This newspaper also quoted the Supreme Leader as saying: "The nation must be prepared to confront soft warfare." Simultaneously, Kayhan newspaper, in a note titled "Historical Turning Point and Betrayal of the Nation," identified some "media and press" as examples of the Supreme Leader's remarks on Sunday, stating that some media and press "are directly and indirectly guided by the enemies of the Islamic Revolution." Economic researcher Hassan Soltani, in a note in the Jahan San'at newspaper, wrote: "Considering the 30% inflation rate, the costs of urban households in the two-year period (1393 and 1394) and the cash subsidies received based on household size, it is determined that this year, on average, cash subsidies will cover 5% of urban residents' expenses, which increases gradually from 1.8% for the lowest decile to 18% for the highest decile." The note writer of Jahan San'at reminded that "according to the latest report on the 'Results of Household Budget Survey in Urban Areas of Iran' by the Central Bank, the average cost of urban households in 1392 was '2 million and 850 thousand tomans.' Speculation by newspapers about the reason for Zarif's return to Tehran. Iran newspaper, in its front page on Tuesday, referring to "Zarif's extraordinary flight to Tehran," wrote: "Mohammad Javad Zarif left Vienna for Tehran last night to consult with high-ranking officials, and will return to the negotiation table after 24 hours." This newspaper stated: "The boiling point of nuclear negotiations has been reached. Last efforts in the final days of the July 1 deadline continue behind closed doors," and diplomats are hard at work to "untangle the knots of negotiations, knots that move along the red lines of both parties, making it difficult to find collectively acceptable solutions." The newspaper emphasized that "in the absence of official information; the market for unofficial news and speculation is hot, and reputable media are also publishing unconfirmed news intertwined with nuclear obstacles and measures, each of which pleases a group," stating: "Opponents of the agreement cling to obstacles to witness the empty-handed exit of diplomats from Vienna, while supporters of the agreement are focused on the negotiators' cleverness to provide middle-ground solutions, stamping the 'void' mark on the long-standing nuclear challenge and sanctions." Iran newspaper emphasized that "both opposing and supporting groups have scrutinized official and unofficial news to find material for their hopes," stating: "News that pleases one is unpleasant for another, but there are few news items that are shocking for both groups; news such as Zarif's return to Tehran for 24 hours and his subsequent flight back to Vienna." According to this government-aligned newspaper, "Although the media affairs officer of the Iranian negotiating team announced on Sunday that Zarif's return to Tehran was according to a pre-determined schedule, few doubt that the Foreign Minister's flight from Vienna to Tehran is a sign of entering the final decision-making moments, and Zarif has gone to the capital to convey the outcomes of the consultations and obtain directives from high-ranking officials of the system." Iran newspaper wrote: "The announced and official schedule of Zarif's trip also indicates the intensity of his work: entering Tehran" and returning to Vienna "after 24 hours," although the media affairs officer of the Iranian negotiating team stated that "the foreign ministers of Iran and the United States, after their meetings, have given the necessary instructions regarding how to continue working on the text and its details to their teams, so that the absence of leaders does not waste precious time for consultations." Qanoon newspaper also, in its front page on July 8, examined "three analyses regarding Zarif's back and forth" from the perspective of Iranian experts, stating: "Zarif's back and forth can be analyzed in various ways." Saman Saberian, in a report for Qanoon newspaper, quoted several members of parliament and international experts in Tehran, suggesting the first speculation about Mohammad Javad Zarif's return relates to the probable proposal of new suggestions during the negotiations, and the second speculation pertains to "issues of espionage and the risk of leaking the contents of the talks," while the third speculation is that "it is highly likely that the final draft of a comprehensive agreement has been prepared, and the negotiating team has returned to the country for final confirmation to take the last step." Nouzar Shafiei, a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the 9th Parliament, described Mohammad Javad Zarif's return to Tehran as "diplomacy of back and forth," stating to Qanoon newspaper: "The diplomacy of back and forth means that a new issue has been raised or a new proposal has been put forth by the negotiating parties, and the decision-making regarding this is beyond the expertise and authority of the Foreign Minister, so Mohammad Javad Zarif felt it necessary to consult and negotiate with high-ranking officials regarding the new proposals." According to this parliament member, "the proposals raised may include issues such as the simultaneous lifting of sanctions with the implementation of the agreement, research and development of nuclear technology, inspections and monitoring, and the duration of the agreement or the JCPOA." Shafiei, regarding why consultations and obtaining permission were not done over the phone, stated: "This may be due to recent espionage from the hotels where negotiations are taking place; however, on the other hand, it is possible that for obtaining permission, it was necessary to speak with more individuals, which was not possible with a phone call." This member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the 9th Parliament also stated: "It seems that Mohammad Javad Zarif has returned to Tehran to hold a meeting with the Supreme National Security Council to review new topics, so holding a meeting over the phone was not possible, although a phone call is one of the diplomatic methods," but this time Mohammad Javad Zarif "deemed it appropriate to conduct consultations and negotiations in person rather than over the phone." Regarding the possibility of Mohammad Javad Zarif meeting with the Supreme Leader "to obtain permission," Shafiei stated: "The issue of nuclear negotiations falls under the responsibilities of the Supreme National Security Council, and therefore this council must make the final decision for the agreement, and the Foreign Ministry will implement it." Hassan Beheshti Pour, an international affairs expert, also commented on the reason for the Iranian Foreign Minister's return to Tehran ahead of the July 1 deadline, stating to Qanoon newspaper: "The first theory is that he comes to Tehran for urgent consultations with high-ranking officials regarding nuclear negotiations, and the second theory is that 'the Iranian Foreign Minister has left the negotiations and returned to Tehran' can be seen as a critical move regarding the performance of the negotiating party." He also mentioned the possibility of proposing new suggestions during the negotiations as one of the potential reasons for Mohammad Javad Zarif's return to Tehran, stating: "Apparently, this issue is of high importance, and for this reason, the Foreign Minister has come from Austria to Iran to follow up on the process." Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, a representative from the 8th Parliament and a former member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, emphasized that "Zarif's unexpected trip to Tehran indicates the high sensitivity of the negotiations," stating to Qanoon newspaper: "This trip may indicate that the final drafts of the agreement have been prepared, and the Iranian Foreign Minister comes to discuss it with the officials and the Supreme National Security Council." According to Falahatpisheh, "If this theory is correct, after the approval of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohammad Javad Zarif, as the executor of foreign policy, will convey the final decision to the negotiations." Falahatpisheh described the issue of espionage from the negotiations in case of phone consultations as a "second-degree speculation" and emphasized that "the main issue is the content of the discussions that Mohammad Javad Zarif has with the country's officials, which seems to be of high importance." Qanoon newspaper also referred to a fourth speculation regarding the "possibility of extension," stating: "Some believe that Mohammad Javad Zarif has returned to Tehran to seek more time and continue negotiations, which is not widely discussed, as many foreign policy experts emphasize that extending and prolonging negotiations is not in favor of either party, and this principle can be heard in the statements of responsible officials as well." Three "fateful days" in the final agreement. Etemad newspaper reported on its front page on Tuesday about "three fateful dates in the final agreement," stating: "The final document will have three timelines: the date of agreement, the date of operation, and the date of implementation." Sara Masoumi, in a report for Etemad newspaper, wrote: "Only 24 hours remain until the end of the deadline of June 30, equivalent to July 1, but in front of the Palais Coburg hotel, there is not much sign of despair. This file has experienced many deadlocks over the past 13 years and has faced several deadlines in the past two years. The duel of Iran's nuclear diplomacy with the sanctions war of the P5+1 will not end even with the ringing of the bells on June 30. This diplomacy resembles a baseball game that cannot be considered finished even in the final seconds." The reporter of Etemad newspaper pointed out that "in conditions where Iran and the P5+1 can reach an agreement even a few days after the deadline, they will still only pass through one phase of negotiations and enter another phase that is more operational." It was reported that with a potential nuclear agreement, three days will be recorded in the history of cooperation between Iran and the P5+1 under the supervision of the Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency. The day of agreement, the day of operation, and the day of implementation." According to this newspaper, "On the day of agreement, both sides will only announce the end of disputes and reaching a step of understanding. It has been previously stated that this text of the JCPOA is not an international document, and there will be no news of its signing in the form of an international agreement," but "the current discussion is that a Security Council resolution under Chapter VII will likely be issued the day after the agreement, which has faced opposition from the Americans." After this day, "the JCPOA" will go for review to the U.S. Congress on one side and the Iranian Parliament on the other side, and Etemad newspaper stated that "the Parliament in Iran does not intend to vote on this matter, and the negotiating team must explain the provisions and details to the representatives of the people," and "this time frame will vary between 30 to 60 days depending on the time of reaching an agreement." Etemad reported that "On the day of operation, the U.S. and Europe will lift their sanctions. On this day, given that Iran has not yet taken its steps based on the provisions of the JCPOA, the opposing side will announce the lifting of various financial and economic sanctions along with their subcategories," but "the implementation of this will be postponed until after Iran's commitments are executed." This newspaper pointed out that the third important day in the potential agreement is the "day of implementation," stating that on the day of implementation, "both sides will take the final operational steps, and it is predicted that Iran will need two to three months to implement its actions," while "Iran will likely also postpone the implementation of the Additional Protocol to the day of implementation. Additionally, both sides have not yet reached an agreement on when Iran's file will be removed from the Security Council." Etemad emphasized that "there is no longer any doubt that both Iran and the six countries opposite it want an agreement in the negotiations, but an agreement whose specifications are different for each of them, and combining these specifications and reaching a common outcome is difficult." According to this newspaper, "Currently, all parties are focused on reaching a comprehensive nuclear agreement in the early days of July and in the shortest distance after June 30," and "extending for several more months" has become a forbidden act that both sides are afraid to express, and if "Iran and the six countries opposite it cannot reach an agreement within this time frame, they will find themselves in a situation where the political, legal, and technical specifications of that space will be debatable."