Speculations by Government Media on Succession Options for Ali Shamkhani; Lineup of IRGC Commanders

Hours after Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, deemed the interpretation of "some inside" regarding the "heroic flexibility" he had mentioned years ago as "incorrect," unofficial news emerged about the "resignation" of Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic. Shamkhani hinted at the end of his tenure in a tweet, a news that was confirmed by "Noor News," a media outlet close to the council's secretariat. Shamkhani was appointed to the position by Hassan Rouhani after he took office as President of Iran ten years ago, with Khamenei's approval. Now, after ten years and precisely in the months when Shamkhani played a more prominent role in the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic in the last months of the year 1401, unofficial news indicates his "resignation." In the final months of last year, Shamkhani's presence at the head of negotiating delegations that traveled to China and the region for agreements with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq raised discussions. Some believed that the "ineffectiveness" of the Foreign Ministry under Ibrahim Raisi's government had led to the resolution of some "strategic" issues, including the tense relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, being entrusted to the Supreme National Security Council. Although Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, the Foreign Minister of Raisi's government, denied any disagreement and claimed that "everything is coordinated." While Khamenei's implicit criticism of the previous government's foreign policy approach and the use of the term "begging diplomacy" seems to be directed more towards Hassan Rouhani and Javad Zarif, Shamkhani's decade-long tenure in such a significant position as the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council positions him, in the eyes of many, including opponents and critics of the previous government, as a "co-conspirator" in the approaches criticized by Khamenei. Although no official news regarding Shamkhani's "resignation" had been published at the time of this report, the proximity of the initial source of this news and the listing of alternative options in government-affiliated media indicates that it is "imminent." One of the names that has circulated among domestic media as a "potential" replacement for Shamkhani is an IRGC commander named Ali Akbar Ahmadian. He is currently a "real member" of the Expediency Discernment Council and has been the head of the IRGC's Strategic Center since 2007. Ahmadian, 62, born in Shahrbabak, served as the commander of the IRGC Navy from 1997 to 2000 and held the position of Chief of Staff of the IRGC from 2000 to 2007. Besides Ahmadian, several other IRGC commanders, including Gholamali Rashid and Yahya Rahim Safavi, have also been mentioned in recent hours as possible successors to Shamkhani. Gholamali Rashid is currently the commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters and also serves as the Deputy for Defense Affairs at the Supreme National Security Council's secretariat. Yahya Rahim Safavi, a former IRGC commander, currently acts as a senior advisor to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic on armed forces matters.