Speculations Surrounding the Trump-Putin Dialogue

On the eve of the meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on Monday, July 16, speculations about the content of the negotiations between the leaders of the United States and Russia are unprecedentedly ongoing. Issues between the U.S. and Russia, the ambiguous outcomes of the U.S. President's meeting with NATO leaders, and the results of Trump's meetings with British politicians have created a unique situation that has no precedent in the history of U.S. foreign relations. The current conditions compel Donald Trump to return from these negotiations with significant achievements to demonstrate that his European trip was fruitful. What are the influencing factors on the Helsinki negotiations? - The formal indictment by the U.S. federal judiciary against 12 Russian citizens, just before Trump's meeting with Putin, has severely impacted the relations between the two countries. This judicial body has accused Russian military intelligence agents of hacking Hillary Clinton's computer network and the Democratic Party, as well as money laundering. However, this indictment does not implicate the U.S. President or his associates, but Trump aims to undermine the existing accusations regarding possible collaboration between his election campaign and close associates with Russia by suggesting that the Russian interference occurred during Barack Obama's presidency. - The competition between the Democratic and Republican parties ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, on one hand, and the American parties' view of Russia's policies with these accusations have reached a critical stage, with some Democratic members even urging Trump to cancel his meeting with the Russian President. - The skepticism and rumors surrounding the relationship between Putin and Trump lead the U.S. President to want to demonstrate America's authority as a global superpower in the negotiations, and for this purpose, he must address issues that allow him to return to Washington with significant achievements. In the negotiations between the two leaders, multiple issues will be raised, some of which are chronic problems in the bilateral relationship, and it is almost unlikely that the parties will want to grant each other specific concessions. President Trump does not directly defend Putin and the allegations of election interference, but before this indictment, he questioned the basis of the allegations in two different ways: first, by stating that this investigation is fundamentally pointless and baseless, leading to a decline in U.S.-Russia relations; and second, that the Russians insist they did not interfere in the U.S. elections. The U.S. President's statements come at a time when security and counterintelligence officials have repeatedly confirmed Russia's role in hacking the Democratic Party's computers. Given this background, it is clear that the issue of Russian allegations will not hold a significant position in the negotiations between the two presidents. Whether the U.S. wants Russia to influence North Korea or expects major changes in Russia's policies regarding Ukraine and Crimea are also topics that have somewhat pre-prepared responses. Russia usually promises cooperation regarding North Korea, but this cooperation never goes beyond promises, as the essence of the U.S.-Russia rivalry contradicts reaching a final solution based on cooperation to end North Korea's nuclear capabilities. Regarding Ukraine and Crimea, Russia typically resorts to justifications such as spheres of interest, national security, or strategic depth, and despite existing sanctions, it has not been willing to offer any concessions beyond cliché diplomatic promises. In this area, Russia's relations with Europe play a more decisive role, and by creating mutual dependencies with European countries (e.g., Germany in the energy sector), Russia has managed to reduce the impact of sanctions. The U.S. President cannot change Russia's approach, and for this reason, he criticizes Germany's policies, which is an ally of the U.S. in NATO and Europe. The NATO Secretary-General's statements, which define the organization's approach towards Moscow as a combination of dialogue and defense and do not see dialogue as a sign of weakness, do not provide a clear outlook regarding the possibility of using NATO allies against Russia due to Ukraine. Putin has shown that he effectively plays and utilizes the card of energy resources close to the European market. John Bolton, the U.S. National Security Advisor, who met with Vladimir Putin late last month to discuss the details of Trump's trip, has not provided any specific explanations regarding the discussions between the two presidents, leaving the door open for discussions on multiple topics. The current conditions compel Donald Trump to return from these negotiations with significant achievements to demonstrate that his European trip was fruitful. However, the possibility of negotiating with Russia regarding economic exchanges between the two countries is among the topics mentioned by Mike Pence, the U.S. Vice President, in an interview late last month. The complexity of economic development in this regard will be influenced by some congressional sanctions against Russia, which Trump signed after a long delay in August of the previous year. Will the topics of Syria, Iran, and Israel be discussed between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump? The point that Mike Pence briefly mentioned in his interview late last month was the potential discussion of 'Syria and other sensitive issues...' in Trump's meeting with Putin. The key to the dialogue between Putin and Trump lies within this framework. For Russia, the unique situation created after the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA has provided a golden opportunity. On one hand, Iran has become heavily reliant on Russian support, and on the other hand, Russia is exploiting Iran in a multifaceted manner by showing a green light for unlimited support. Moscow is carefully watching what the U.S. wants from Iran, and then Putin simply requests that from Iran, knowing that Iran will not resist Russia's demands. For example, when Israel and the U.S. demanded Iran's withdrawal from Syria, Russia also emphasized the withdrawal of foreign forces, including Iran and Hezbollah, which is supported by Iran. On the eve of the dialogue between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, Finland, the conversation between Putin and Ali Akbar Velayati, Iran's special representative and international advisor to the leader, in Moscow also held special significance. It does not seem coincidental that the simultaneous visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Velayati is happening, but the details of it may not be disclosed soon. A kind of deal with Israel - ranging from de facto recognition to a non-aggression commitment - could be among the topics raised. It does not seem coincidental that the simultaneous visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Velayati is happening, but the details of it may not be disclosed soon. However, the issue of barter trade between Russia and Iran is another topic that will certainly be discussed alongside Iran's regional role in the Middle East during Putin and Trump's negotiations. Perhaps this is why the Russians have not been willing to provide further explanations about what they promised Iran at the negotiating table or even confirm or deny it. For the Russians, the urgency of time does not hold the same definition as it does in the U.S. or Europe. The Russians play with the element of time until the essence of the matter undergoes transformation. The launch of the Bushehr nuclear reactor and the sale of the S-300 or S-400 systems to Iran and Turkey are examples of this type of Russian time play. It is unclear what promise Putin will make to Trump and to what extent and at what speed any promise made will be implemented. Russia has a convoluted path ahead to repair its relations with the U.S. and restore the level of diplomatic relations to the level of two years ago at the end of Barack Obama's presidency (before the onset of the crisis). Playing the Iran card could remove some of these obstacles from Russia's path. There is no doubt that when larger interests are at stake, governments easily abandon smaller interests and sacrifice them for their long-term benefits. For Putin, using the Iran card incurs much lower costs.