Statistical Manipulation and Misinformation Continue; Raisi Claims Budget Deficit Compensation Without Borrowing

Ebrahim Raisi, the President of the Islamic Republic, claimed during a meeting with clerics and Friday prayer leaders in South Khorasan that he compensated for a budget deficit of 480 trillion tomans without printing money or borrowing from the Central Bank. This claim, praised by Ali Khamenei, comes despite existing statistics indicating extensive and indirect borrowing by the government to cover the budget deficit. To verify Raisi's claim, a report from the Research Center of the Islamic Consultative Assembly shows that the total debts of the government and state-owned companies at the end of the year 1401 (2022-2023) increased by 61% compared to the end of Shahrivar 1400 (September 2021). During this period, bond debts also grew by 42%. Furthermore, recent reports from the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic indicate that borrowing by state-owned companies from the Central Bank increased by about 60%, and borrowing from the entire banking system rose by over 77%. According to official statistics, the public sector's debts to the Central Bank reached 272 trillion tomans at the end of 1401, reflecting a 52.1% increase for that year, while this figure had grown by 20% in 1400. Additionally, public sector debts are divided into government debts and debts of state-owned companies, with the growth rate of government debt to the Central Bank rising from 15.2% in 1400 to 38.5% in 1401. Moreover, government debts to banks, which had increased by about 14.6% in 1400, surged to 59% last year. Regarding money printing, 'Quds Online' reported on Ordibehesht 9 (April 28) that the 32% increase in the monetary base over eleven months in 1401 was significantly higher than the increases in the past two decades, indicating that Raisi's government has set a record in money printing. The Research Center of the Islamic Consultative Assembly also reported on Mordad 26 (August 17) that 'the average withdrawal from the National Development Fund during Ahmadinejad's second term was $453 million per month, during the eight years of Rouhani's two administrations it was nearly $700 million per month, and in the thirteenth government (one and a half years), the average was $1.12 billion per month.' During this meeting, Raisi also claimed that in the past two years, the average inflation rate for food in European countries was 19% and in regional countries between 28% to 29%. This claim comes despite the fact that the inflation rate in the Eurozone, after recording a peak of 10.6% in October 2022, has been on a downward trend, with inflation rates dropping to single digits in 19 Eurozone member countries, except for Slovakia, which remains above 10%. In regional countries, according to the International Monetary Fund, inflation rates in Iraq, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia in 2023 will be less than 5%. In the region, Egypt is experiencing 12% inflation and Yemen 17%. Meanwhile, inflation predictions for Turkey are at 51% and for Iran above 45%. The consequences of a command economy; a member of parliament stated that 'inflation' has 'almost' halted bank investments. No one is willing to accept the government's ceiling on rent prices; the rental housing market is suffering from exorbitant prices. The exchange rate for petrochemical products has reached 37,500 tomans; 'Farzin Dollar' will be abolished. Khamenei, without mentioning his role in imposing sanctions, urged Raisi to neutralize the sanctions by reducing inflation. The escalating trend of migration; from doctors and engineers to workers and drivers leaving Iran. The government's unfulfilled promises; increasing the 'fever' of rental costs. Protests by retirees over living conditions in Iranian cities: 'The offspring of the elite are American, our children are destitute.'