Following the Iranian presidential election extending into a second round, with reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian competing against hardliner Saeed Jalili for the presidency, the value of the Iranian rial and the Tehran Stock Exchange index experienced a downward trend. The dollar rate rose by 450 tomans yesterday, and according to various currency rate websites and channels, on Sunday, July 1st, it again increased by 750 tomans to reach 62,250 tomans, the highest figure in the past two months. The decline in the national currency's value comes despite statistics from tanker tracking company Vortexa and commodity information company Kpler indicating a 30% increase in Iran's oil exports in volume this spring. Customs statistics also show that the country's oil export revenues grew by 35% in the spring season. Pezeshkian and Jalili will compete in the second round of the presidential election. On the other hand, the Tehran Stock Exchange index fell by 23,000 units, equivalent to over 1%, dropping below 2,073,000 units on Sunday. The Iranian stock market faced a massive outflow of 942 billion tomans in real money on the same day. Islamic Republic officials have not explained why the value of the Iranian national currency is declining while the stock market is experiencing a drop in the overall index and capital flight. However, following the presidential election extending to a second round and the presence of Saeed Jalili from the hardline conservative faction, uncertainty about the prospects of reviving the JCPOA and Iran's removal from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) blacklist has increased. In the first round of the presidential election, the vote difference between Masoud Pezeshkian, a supporter of the JCPOA and the approval of FATF laws, and Saeed Jalili was only 4%, while Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf garnered nearly 14% of the total votes. Mr. Qalibaf and two withdrawn candidates, Alireza Zakani and Amir Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, have supported Saeed Jalili in the second round. It is unclear how many of Qalibaf's supporters will back Jalili in the second round and how many will vote for Pezeshkian. According to the Ministry of Interior's electoral headquarters, the participation rate in the first round of the 14th presidential election in Iran was 39.9%, the lowest participation rate in all such elections in the country. Meanwhile, the performance of current President Joe Biden and his opponent Donald Trump in the first election debate has been described as 'very weak,' raising doubts among Democrats about winning the upcoming U.S. presidential election and even continuing support for Biden's candidacy. Unlike Joe Biden, whose administration supports reviving the JCPOA, Trump, who withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, maintains a very hardline approach towards the Islamic Republic.
Stock Market and Rial Value Drop One Day After Presidential Election Results Announced
The Iranian rial and stock market fell sharply following the announcement of the presidential election results, where reformist Masoud Pezeshkian will face hardliner Saeed Jalili in a runoff. This economic decline occurs amidst increased uncertainty regarding Iran's international agreements and economic stability, particularly in light of rising oil export revenues.
👥 Key Players
📰 What Happened
Following the Iranian presidential election results, the Iranian rial and stock market experienced significant declines. This economic downturn is linked to uncertainty surrounding Iran's international agreements and economic policies.
- The Iranian rial's value dropped, with the dollar rate increasing by 750 tomans.
- The Tehran Stock Exchange index fell by over 1%, with a significant outflow of capital.
💡 Why It Matters
📚 Background
Iran's presidential election results are pivotal in determining the country's approach to international agreements like the JCPOA and economic policies.
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