Stockholm and the Future of Yemen

The talks between Yemen's warlords in Stockholm were only a small step in alleviating the endless suffering of the Yemeni people. However, there is still a long and perilous road ahead to achieve peace and establish a central government. Even the limited ceasefire agreement for the port of Hodeidah does not seem very sustainable. Last Sunday, news agencies reported that after a brief pause, the fighting between the Houthis and supporters of Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi has reignited in this port. The Houthis and representatives of Hadi Mansur—better said, the Houthis and Saudi Arabia—had agreed that all fighters would withdraw from this strategic port, hand over security to local forces, and allow UN observers to enter the port to monitor the ceasefire. But we still do not know who the local forces are and whether such a neutral force exists in Hodeidah. Each side wants to convince the UN to accept its supporters as local forces. The UN has also taken on another task, which is to collect customs duties and taxes on imported goods, which is a significant amount for today's Yemen. Hodeidah is Yemen's most important port, with over 80% of foreign aid entering Yemen through this port. The UN is supposed to deposit customs duties into the branch of the Central Bank in Hodeidah. However, Yemen has two central banks, one in Sana'a controlled by the Houthis and the other in Aden, the temporary capital of Mansur Hadi. The Houthis have previously paid customs duties to the salaries of port workers, teachers, and other employees through this bank, which has not been sufficient. Global aid organizations, many Western governments, and the UN itself consider the Stockholm agreements a significant victory, as for the first time after five years of devastating war, the leaders of the warring factions were willing to talk. The UN also hopes to gradually extend the Hodeidah ceasefire to other regions of Yemen. The coming days and weeks will show whether this wish will be realized and whether ordinary Yemenis will finally breathe a sigh of relief or not! Both sides have promised to return to Sweden for talks again at the end of January. However, Khalid Yamani, the foreign minister of Mansur Hadi's government, says he and his delegation will only return to Sweden if the Houthis fully comply with the ceasefire. UN Resolution? Martin Griffith, the UN special envoy for Yemen, was the main architect of these talks. Without his round-the-clock activities, the dialogue among these warlords would not have taken place. Now, Griffith says that the UN must quickly issue a strong resolution, not only to declare global support for the agreements in Yemen but also to send armed observers to ensure the achievements of the Stockholm talks are realized. However, Saudi Arabia says that Resolution 2216 must first be implemented. This is the same resolution that the Security Council issued on April 5, 2015, during the early days of the bombing of Yemen by Saudi planes. This resolution calls for the Houthis to hand over their heavy weapons to the government and withdraw their forces from Sana'a. This impossible request is why this resolution has never been implemented. Many Arab newspapers reported before and after the Stockholm talks that if it were not for Saudi pressure, Mansur Hadi's delegation would never have come to Stockholm. Some reporters even claimed that in the final hours, Mohammed bin Salman requested Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi and his prime minister to immediately go to Stockholm in two phone conversations. In any case, after the murder of Khashoggi in Istanbul, international pressure on Saudi Arabia to end the war in Yemen has clearly increased, and Saudi Arabia is also not unwilling to exit this unproductive quagmire with dignity. It has reached a point where even the US Senate, which has a Republican majority, has issued a clear resolution calling for Saudi Arabia to end the war. In addition to the Hodeidah issue, both sides also discussed the release of prisoners and captives. Each side had a list of seven to eight thousand individuals and requested the other to release them. The day after both sides returned from Stockholm, news agencies reported that the Houthis had arrested some supporters of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh in Sana'a. Saleh joined the Houthis in 2014 with part of the army and other armed forces, leading to the rapid victory of the Houthis throughout Yemen, who were able to capture even the port of Aden in the south for a while. However, this alliance did not last long. Saleh soon became disillusioned with the Houthis and gradually decided to join the Saudis. The Houthis quickly realized that Saleh intended to change sides. He was under house arrest for a while, and the Houthis eventually killed him in December 2017 while he was trying to escape from Sana'a. Now his corpse has also become a bargaining chip. The Sana'a Airport, Iranian Weapons. The Role of the UAE. In Stockholm, they tried to reach an agreement on reopening Sana'a Airport, which is under Houthi control, to facilitate the entry of food and medicine. However, this effort did not succeed, as Saudi Arabia says that any plane arriving in Yemen must first land at Aden Airport, be thoroughly inspected, and then fly to Sana'a. With this proposal, Saudi Arabia aims to prevent Iranian weapons from reaching the Houthis by air. The city of Aden, the temporary capital of Mansur Hadi's government, is under the control of the Emiratis, and although they are allies of Saudi Arabia in the war against the Houthis, they do not have a good relationship with Mansur Hadi. In the past two years, there have been several bloody clashes between supporters of Mansur Hadi and Emirati forces in Aden. The Emiratis are pursuing their own agenda in Yemen and are not particularly concerned with Saudi strategy. The Saudis apparently do not have a clear strategy for Yemen's future; in contrast, the Emiratis are trying to establish a long-term economic and military base in southern Yemen and have hired experienced military mercenaries from various countries, including the US, for this purpose. The Emiratis support the Southern Movement, which seeks to separate from Yemen. In the battlefield against the Houthis, the Southerners are much more active with Emirati money and weapons than Mansur Hadi and the Saudis. Currently, 20,000 Southern forces are involved in fighting the Houthis around the port of Hodeidah. The leadership of the Southerners is in the hands of the Transitional Council, which is effectively commanded by the Emiratis. This council was not present at the Stockholm talks and claims that without their participation in future negotiations, no agreement for Yemen will be reached. The city of Taiz is a microcosm of Yemen's tangled situation. In Stockholm, they wanted to reach an agreement regarding the city of Taiz, but they could not. Taiz is Yemen's third-largest city and has been besieged by the Houthis for over two years. However, within the city, fighters from the Islah Party control many neighborhoods. The Islah Party is the Yemeni branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, and since the Emiratis are bitter enemies of the Brotherhood, they support the Houthis' siege against Taiz. However, Mansur Hadi's forces cooperate with Islah fighters in the fight against the Houthis. A glance at this tangled situation and the events in Taiz reveals what is happening in Yemen and how the fronts of this country are fluid and complex, and why there is no hope for an end to the war in sight. Stockholm II? Martin Griffith, the UN representative, wants to gather the Yemeni warlords again in Stockholm at the end of January. However, there is still no agenda for this meeting. Mansur Hadi's supporters continue to insist on disarming the Houthis, and it is unclear whether the Southerners will come to Stockholm this time. Aside from these political disputes, if the UN can truly take the port of Hodeidah out of the hands of the fighters, then there is hope that the endless suffering of the Yemeni people may be alleviated somewhat. A report from the World Health Organization states that a thousand people in Yemen contract cholera every day, and if medicine, food, and humanitarian supplies do not reach Yemen, this trend will take on horrific dimensions. The opinions expressed in this note do not necessarily reflect the views of Radio Farda. Ali Sadrzadeh is an analyst of Middle Eastern and Arab world issues.