Student Movement and the Challenge of Empty Seats

This year, 798,000 people participated in the university entrance exam, and almost all of them were deemed eligible for field selection. However, only 575,000 participated in the field selection process, with 430,000 accepted into concentrated fields. It is estimated that this year the number of new university students in the country will be around 500,000. As a result, there will be approximately 295,000 empty seats in universities. Given the decrease in the percentage of youth in the country's population pyramid, the declining interest in university education among boys, and the changing gender composition of entrance exam candidates, it was predictable that the number of new students would decrease, but the figure of 300,000 is significantly beyond expectations and concerning. According to statistics from the Ministry of Science, nearly half of the capacity of applied science universities, over 65% of the capacity of non-profit universities, and 50,000 seats in Azad University remain unfilled. This situation has serious negative consequences for the job market, the survival of non-profit higher education institutions, the state of awareness in the country, the social status of universities, and the higher education system. However, this article aims to examine its impacts on the functioning of the student movement and its social reach. The decrease in student population will have a negative impact. This diminishing factor is not only related to the numerical decrease in student population but is more influenced by the reduced importance of obtaining a university degree among youth. Previously, access to university and obtaining higher education and the relevant degree were important for Iranian youth and their families in various aspects. All individuals and families considered it essential for gaining prestige and social status. For a significant portion, university education was a pathway to obtaining a good job and securing a future livelihood. However, this is no longer the case for some young people, and in recent years, the number of boys applying for the higher education entrance exam has seen a downward trend, which is expected to continue. The negative aspect of this issue becomes more apparent when the desire for secondary education is also on a downward trend, and the country has a population of ten million illiterates. The main impact of this trend will be a decrease in the social status of universities and students. Although the extent of this decline is not high, and obtaining a university education, especially higher degrees, will still be valued, it will not be as it was in the past. In such circumstances, the role of universities and the student movement will also undergo changes. In fact, students and student life will drift further away from their unique status, and the desire for specific and different activism compared to conventional political engagement in the student movement will decrease. The advantage and unique characteristic of the Iranian student movement, which has granted it high social status, has been its role in carrying the main burden of transformation during transitional periods and facilitating the removal of barriers to fulfilling the people's demands. During Ahmadinejad's second presidential term, the increase in repressive government actions and the regime's tolerance threshold reaching zero in universities brought student movement activities to their lowest level since their revival in the 1990s. During Rouhani's presidency, although the police atmosphere in universities has decreased, there is no significant difference in the level of student movement activities. In recent years, the expansion of student relationships has also had an undeniable negative impact on the criticism of universities. The decrease in student population in this context may increase the likelihood of a paradigm shift in student activism and the politicization of it, transforming it into a following force for political groups outside universities. At the same time, it will not definitively have a deterrent effect on the continuation of the historical identity of the Iranian student movement. However, it will at least reduce the social status of students to some degree, although the extent of this will not be significant in the short term.