Summer 2024 Likely to be the Hottest Summer in History

Copernicus, the EU climate monitoring service, states that since summer 2024 is expected to be the hottest summer on record, the likelihood of this year being the hottest year on record has increased. Experts from Copernicus said on Friday, September 6, that in addition to the trend of global warming influenced by human activities, the occurrence of the weather phenomenon 'El Niño' also played a significant role in raising the average temperature of the Earth last year, and it seems that the rapid increase in global temperatures will not stop soon. According to data from the EU climate monitoring service, the average temperature in the Northern Hemisphere during this summer quarter was 16.8 degrees Celsius, about one hundredth of a degree warmer than last year's record. The climate data collection by this agency began in 1940. However, data from the meteorological agencies of the United States, the UK, and Japan, which have been collecting data since the mid-19th century, show that the last decade has been the hottest period since then, and some climate scientists estimate that the heat of the last 10 years is unprecedented even in the last 120,000 years. Carlo Buontempo, the director of Copernicus, stated that the average temperature in the Northern Hemisphere in August 2023 and 2024 was the same, around 16.82 degrees Celsius, which is the highest recorded temperature for this month. In July this year, no heat records were broken, but since June was much hotter than previous years, the overall summer quarter of 2024 set a new record. Stefan Rahmstorf, a professor at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said, 'These unpleasant figures and statistics show how global warming and the resulting climate crisis have us in their grip.' Buontempo noted that one consequence of higher temperatures is increased humidity, which approached record highs in most parts of the world this summer. Until mid-summer, Mr. Buontempo, like most experts, thought this summer would not be the hottest on record since August 2023 was unprecedentedly hot. However, this August was as hot as last August, leading to the conclusion that this summer is the hottest summer on record. The Copernicus director pointed out that with the arrival of the weather phenomenon 'La Niña,' which cools the central Pacific regions, the remaining four months of this year may not be as warm as the past year and a half, but despite this temporary moderation in the weather in parts of the Earth, 2024 is likely to be the hottest year on record. 'La Niña' is a similar oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon to 'El Niño' but colder and part of the Southern Oscillation of 'El Niño.' The origin of the 'El Niño' phenomenon is the warming of the Pacific waters, but due to changing wind patterns in the Western Hemisphere, it usually leads to severe storms and significant changes in rainfall amounts. This weather phenomenon is a significant factor in intensifying and spreading wildfires, prolonging drought periods, and storms accompanied by flooding, and it has a significant impact on the economic situation of countries, especially developing countries that are more affected by fluctuations in food and energy prices. The 'La Niña' phenomenon is expected to arrive with a 65% probability between July and September. 'El Niño' is a natural weather phenomenon characterized by the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The prominent consequence of the 'La Niña' phenomenon is the cooling of the Pacific Ocean near the equator. What is published in describing the increase in the average temperature of the Earth is not just numbers and statistics but endangers the lives of people. Jonathan Overpeck, director of the Climate and Environment Center at the University of Michigan, says, 'The consequences of what we hear in statistics are a reality of misery and disaster for people in various parts of the world. One example is the city of Phoenix, Arizona, which has experienced a longer period of scorching heat.' This summer, the city of Phoenix experienced over 100 days with temperatures around 38 degrees. Overpeck continues, 'The longer the period of extreme heat lasts, the greater the likelihood of drought in some areas and torrential rain in others. Climate change has become much more evident and costly to ignore.' Jennifer Francis, an expert at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, also believes that the intensification and increased frequency of severe weather phenomena such as droughts, wildfires, and floods worldwide have become a serious threat. She says, 'Like people living in war zones who have become accustomed to bombs falling, cannon fire, and gunshots, we have also become deaf to the warnings about the climate crisis, which is like an air raid siren.' According to the Copernicus director, one of the secondary factors for the unprecedented heat last year was the 'El Niño' phenomenon, but despite the end of its temporary effects, the intensity of heat did not decrease in 2024, proving that the main cause of global warming is human activities, especially the production and consumption of fossil fuels.