Syria in 2014: Choosing Between Bad and Worse

On a cool spring day in March 2011, Syrian security forces opened fire on a group of protesters opposing Bashar al-Assad in the southern city of Daraa, killing several of them. This was not the first time the Assad regime had acted to eliminate opposition, but it was a turning point that strengthened the resolve of the opposition to continue their struggle for their ideals. None of the soldiers who fired on the people that day, none of their commanders, and even Bashar al-Assad himself could have imagined that this order would plunge Syria into an endless conflict with ramifications beyond its borders. Less than two months later, an attack by Assad's loyal military on another group of dissenters drew international reaction and led to the imposition of sanctions and economic restrictions by the United States, while the continued suppression of the people incited hostility from the Arab League. Ultimately, the regime's suppression of dissenting citizens led to Syria's suspension from the Arab League. In the fall of that year, armed groups calling themselves the Free Syrian Army attacked a base near Damascus. In the lexicon of governance and politics, an attack on the capital or its surroundings (even if by internal armed groups) is considered a threat to the existence and territorial integrity of that country. However, such a threat from internal dissenters takes years to materialize, and any regime has enough time to reduce hostilities or turn enemies into friends before it is too late. However, authoritarian regimes like Bashar al-Assad's, instead of attempting to persuade and consolidate dissenting internal units, try to ensure security through suppression and physical elimination of dissenters and opponents. Young Bashar al-Assad, who defines a divine mission for himself to save the nation and country like his father, did not want to give any concessions to the opposition and did not want to resolve existing disputes through power-sharing and participation. Thus, with every bullet fired at the opposition, he sank deeper into a quagmire that he had partly created himself. In 2012, the United Nations accused Syria of war crimes, and the United States closed its embassy in Damascus. In April of that year, the UN announced and implemented a ceasefire, and the Assad government claimed it had managed to bring the situation under control, but less than two months later, the UN withdrew its forces in June. Almost simultaneously, the targeting of a military jet near the Syrian-Turkish border led to a NATO meeting to address the threat posed by Syria to Turkey as a NATO member. During the years 2012 and 2013, due to the Syrian regime's refusal to resolve its internal issues, very complex configurations of rebellious insurgents and dissident groups emerged, comprising every conceivable group and ideological faction. By the end of 2013, according to UN reports, over 93,000 people had been killed in the Syrian civil war. Up to this point, this is just a part of the consequences of Syria's wrong policies in dealing with internal dissent. Suddenly, numerous armed groups sprout up like mushrooms. They are either patriotic Syrians, Assad loyalists, or money-driven groups, or they are groups with external origins receiving dubious financial and military assistance from neighboring countries or foreign supporters, arming themselves and preparing for civil war. Of course, behind all this, professional terrorists seeking territory to establish their own nation-state also get involved. The birth of the Islamic Caliphate (Islamic State or ISIS) turns Syrian territory into fertile ground for the cultivation and growth of terrorism and groups that not only had ties to al-Qaeda but even considered al-Qaeda to be a compromising group. Eventually, one of these groups split from al-Qaeda and announced its existence under the grand title of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or 'ISIS,' and since it saw the bite as bigger than the throat, it quickly shortened its name and claimed to be the 'Islamic State.' It may still not be precisely and definitively stated what factors decisively influenced the formation of this so-called 'Islamic State or Caliphate.' Iran claims this group is a creation of the United States and Israel. Iraq claims it is made by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Kurdistan claims it is made by Turkey and Syria. Syria claims it was created by Turkey and Iraqis, mainly from Sunni tribes in Iraq. Intelligence agencies say these are loyalists to Saddam Hussein and former members of Iraqi intelligence who have managed to gather a bunch of mercenaries around them. The British also believe that the emergence of ISIS or the Islamic Caliphate is due to Iraq falling into Iran's lap and the existence of a Shiite government in Baghdad that, with Iran's support, has suppressed Sunnis and dominated the fate of Sunni people. Many others believe these are new Muslims who have understood only the sword and blood from Islam. Meanwhile, individuals who call themselves the caliphs of the Islamic State possess American weapons, procure their supplies from the Gulf and Turkey, are familiar with relatively modern weaponry, and at least some of them are new Muslims who have come to Syria and Iraq from all five continents, from Africa to Oceania, America, and Europe, and hundreds of other descriptions that not only do not provide a clear definition of this group but depict a hybrid creature that has never been seen in any historical period, even in early Islam. Nevertheless, the representative of the group speaks with a thick British accent and expects the world to recognize them as a ruling power. Chemical weapons During the last three months of 2013, the world faced a new crisis in Syria that strengthened the role of some actors. The United States decided to bomb Syria due to the use of chemical weapons by the Assad government in the civil war. The issue is not taken very seriously within the United States, and the President himself does not make a serious decision about it, but nonetheless, it creates a context for Syrians to believe that the U.S. might attack. After some exploration, with Russia's intervention, a formula is found for the Syrians to surrender their chemical weapons to completely eliminate the threat of U.S. bombing. Bashar al-Assad agrees to this method; things happen quickly, and with the cooperation of some European countries, plans are made and executed for the transfer of Syrian weapons abroad and their destruction by June 2014. Syria, perhaps feeling more secure against external reactions due to the open support of Russia and Iran and the chemical weapons surrender program, intensifies the physical elimination of opponents. The first such action occurs in December 2013 with an airstrike on opposition positions in Aleppo, killing at least one hundred people in one attack. In January 2014, British and American media (The Guardian and CNN) publish the original news, photos, and evidence indicating Syria's widespread use of torture against opponents. Efforts to reconcile the demands of the people and the regime begin. In February 2014, under the initiative of the United Nations, negotiations for reconciliation begin in Geneva, but mainly Assad's representatives in Geneva refuse to give any concessions to the rebels, while representatives of the opposition groups also deem it impossible to allow Bashar al-Assad to be considered part of a transitional government, resulting in the negotiations failing. In March, the Syrian army, in cooperation with Hezbollah and with Iranian support, recaptures parts of the 'Yabroud' and 'Qalamoun' areas located along the border with Lebanon from the rebels. In another part of the border with Israel, there are also unrests, resulting in shots being fired at Israeli forces in the Golan Heights. In June, shortly after the Chemical Weapons Commission of the United Nations confirms that Syria has surrendered all its chemical weapons, an armed group declares its existence as the 'Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).' This armed group, in the territories it occupies, which extend from Aleppo in Syria to Diyala province in Iraq, declares an Islamic Caliphate and shortly thereafter changes its name from ISIS to 'Islamic State.' The international community does not recognize this entity and refers to them in global media by various names such as 'former ISIS' or 'Islamic Caliphate/State.' Choosing Between Bad and Worse An important event in early June 2014 was the limited and symbolic elections of Bashar al-Assad in Syria to prove the people's support for his regime. Not all regions and provinces of Syria are under the control of the central government, and therefore no elections are held in significant parts of northern and eastern Syria controlled by the Free Syrian armed rebels. Two electoral rivals also operated alongside Bashar al-Assad. The purpose of this election was to legitimize Bashar's re-election for another seven years. The parliamentary spokesman announced that of approximately 10 million people who participated in the election, 88.3 percent voted for Bashar al-Assad. Apparently, only 7.5 percent of the votes went to Bashar's two electoral rivals. Bashar al-Assad's victory is the predetermined and perennial outcome of elections in Syria. This time, alongside the two sham candidates, Bashar al-Assad wins. Moreover, Assad's victory is attributed to the fact that he has no intention of relinquishing power. The people of Syria have continuously elected him and his father as president since Hafez al-Assad's coup in 1970 and the declaration of the republic, and there has never been a real election. The 2014 election was just like the others, where the people chose between a rival they did not know (worse) and a president they knew (bad). Iranian Support In addition to military equipment delivered and being delivered by Russia, Iran has also continuously supported Syria in various ways. Iran's military support is primarily provided through the Quds Force and its commander Qassem Soleimani. According to information released by the Quds Force, high-level military advisors and experts from the IRGC are dispatched to Syria for assistance and training of military forces. Opponents of the Iraqi and Syrian governments accuse Iran of sending not only advisors but also militia and Basij forces to Syria. It is said that these forces have mainly been in coastal areas with Syrian identity cards and have been serving in the Syrian army, closely cooperating with the Syrian army in intelligence and counterintelligence operations. Throughout 2014, especially from September onwards, areas between Syria and Lebanon witness the rampage of an armed, brutal, and inhumane group led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who claims the Islamic Caliphate. This group commits massacres against civilians and innocent people in the region, capturing their women and girls and even selling them in local markets. On the other hand, by smuggling oil from the region and looting banks and demanding money for the release of foreign hostages taken during operations, they recruit and purchase weapons. One of the areas targeted by the Islamic Caliphate is the Kurdish region of Kobani in Syria, which, like the Yazidi and Turkmen areas, is considered one of the most important ethnic, cultural, and historical regions in this part of the Middle East. Although to date, the people of Kobani have shown historical resistance against the attacks of the Islamic Caliphate, all these areas have not remained safe from destruction and attacks on the lives, property, and honor of the people. Iran and its ally Hezbollah have participated in direct actions against the Islamic Caliphate. Although Iran did not officially confirm military intervention until very recently, it eventually took military action and bombed Islamic Caliphate positions in December 2014. Although the operational scene has been in Iraq, the results have positively impacted both Iraq and Syria. The United States Against the Islamic Caliphate After some hesitation and indecision regarding the strategy to combat the Islamic State, in September, the President of the United States announced that through airstrikes, the dispatch of military advisors to Iraq, and the creation of an international coalition against the Islamic State, they would engage in the fight to destroy it. Barack Obama emphasized that this action would coincide with strengthening more moderate forces against Syria and Bashar al-Assad. Russia and Iran oppose military intervention, believing it violates Syria's sovereignty. In practice, Western actions leave Syria's hand free to suppress smaller opposing groups. To date, coalition forces formed by the U.S., Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Australia, the UK, France, and some other countries continue to bomb areas of Syria and Iraq controlled by the Islamic State, but negotiations regarding the possibility of the rebels participating in the composition of Bashar al-Assad's government have completely lost their relevance. This entire situation has allowed Bashar al-Assad to have more maneuverability compared to six months ago, but significant parts of Syrian territory remain occupied by Islamic State forces. New Developments and a Look to the Future The Syrian crisis and civil war will soon enter its fifth year. During these five years, between 150,000 to 200,000 people have been killed, and millions have been displaced and sought refuge in neighboring countries. Although the Islamic State terrorist group has emerged from the heart of this conflict and has further expanded the war and hatred in the region, the Assad government, supported by Iran and Russia, remains in power.