Syrian Developments Under the Microscope of Users: A 'Deadly Blow' to the Islamic Republic

Reactions to the fall of Bashar al-Assad among Iranian social media users continue, with observers analyzing the situation of the Islamic Republic in Iran after the severing of its proxy arms, taking a closer look at developments in Syria. Some users have pointed to regional developments in the current solar year. For instance, one user active on social media platform X, who has tens of thousands of followers, scrutinized regional developments on Monday, December 10, and compiled a list of the most significant events in the region and the elimination of the Islamic Republic's proxy arms, emphasizing that there are still three months left until the end of the year. He referred to events such as "April 1: Israel's attack on the Islamic Republic's consulate building in Damascus and the killing of Quds Force commanders, April 15: The Islamic Republic's drone and ballistic missile attack on Israel, April 20: Israel's attack on air defense facilities in Iran, and May 20: The helicopter crash and the death of Ibrahim Raisi and Amir-Abdollahian, the President and Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic." The user further highlighted events such as "August 1: The killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran by Israel, September 18: The explosion operation targeting Hezbollah members by Israel and the blinding of the Islamic Republic's ambassador, October 28: Israel's attack on Hezbollah's headquarters in Beirut and the killing of Nasrallah and Abbas Nilfroushan, October 30: The Islamic Republic's drone and ballistic missile attack on Israel, November 26: Israel's attack on military targets in Iran, the killing of Yahya Sinwar in Gaza by the Israeli army, and December 9: The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria," stressing that "there are still three months left in our year." Some observers have also warned that a bit of patience is needed for an accurate assessment of the current forces in Syria. In this regard, Elaheh Beghrat, a journalist, wrote on X: "Those who chant religious slogans and raise religious flags should not be trusted to respect the rights of others. If that were the case, there would be no need for slogans and religious flags. Unless (optimistically), these are a show to neutralize the main religious figures!" According to Ms. Beghrat, "It will soon be clear which force truly comes to power in Syria: the force of freedom and democracy or the religious and authoritarian force. This is important from the perspective of the interests of the Syrian people." She also emphasized that with the fall of Assad's government in Syria, "from the perspective of the interests of the Iranian people, what is certain is that a significant blow has been dealt to the Islamic Republic, which may well be fatal." Shahryar Shams, a civil activist in Iran, also warned: "The fall of a dictator is very good and pleasing, but it does not necessarily mean the freedom of a country; rather, the model and type of government after the fall will determine freedom." Meanwhile, some users have also referred to the instructions of the rebel forces stationed in Syria and compared the approach of this group with the Islamic Republic in Iran. Among them, Maryam Shekarani, a journalist, wrote: "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham has ordered that intervention under the guise of women is prohibited... your luck, Iranians!" Some users have also pointed out the situation of prisoners released from captivity in Syria and referred to human rights violations by Bashar al-Assad's government. For instance, Mahbubeh Moradi, a political activist, shared a video of a teenager and wrote: "This teenager has spent his entire life in Sednaya prison; the only word he can say is Aleppo." Siamak Ghassami, an analyst, also stated that "the images and narratives coming out of Sednaya prison in Syria are so painful," saying: "People who are imprisoned in places where there is not even a door to find, and when they finally come out, they are looking for Saddam and Hafez al-Assad, Bashar al-Assad's father, and they don't even know what a mobile phone is, meaning they have been completely cut off from the world for over 25 years." On the other hand, Ismail Bakhti, a labor activist, emphasized: "Yes, friends, there are also prisoners in Iranian prisons whose last image of society and the world today dates back three decades, yes, friends, there are also political prisoners in Iran who have not seen a mobile phone up close and a political prisoner whose last photo was taken twenty years ago." Some users also recalled the disappeared individuals, including Saeed Zeynali, a protester who has not been heard from since his arrest during the 1999 protests, and whose parents continue to demand answers from the Islamic Republic authorities about his fate. Some users also referred to Prince Reza Pahlavi's statement after Assad's fall. One user wrote in this regard: "You who are still standing by the regime! See your future in the mirror of Syria and separate from it now. Khamenei has sent thousands of you to death under the pretext of defending the 'Haram' and in reality to keep the criminal Assad in power. Today, look at the fate of Assad and his 'defenders of the Haram'..." Some photographic reports indicate that after Bashar al-Assad, the President of Syria, fled to Russia and his government fell, hundreds of Syrian refugees are waiting in a long line at the Turkish border to return to their country. Benjamin Sadr, a journalist, said: "The world is a strange place, and our fate is stranger; Bashar al-Assad, who made hundreds of thousands of Syrians refugees in other countries, is himself a refugee today, with the same law under which his homeless and suffering opponents became refugees." Prince Reza Pahlavi, in reaction to the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government in Syria, stated that "the domino of the fall in the axis of evil of the Islamic Republic has reached Syria and Bashar al-Assad" and "revived a new hope" that dictators "sooner or later will join the dustbin of history." The fall of Bashar al-Assad's government in Syria has sparked widespread reactions among Iranian social media users, and previously, several political figures and analysts have also emphasized that the joining of dictatorial governments, including the Islamic Republic and its leader Ali Khamenei, to the "dustbin of history" is inevitable. Among them, Amir Etemadi, an opposition political activist, emphasized on social media X that "the criminal Assad and his regime have joined the dustbin of history" and "Khamenei and his regime will have a similar fate." Hamid Ismailian, a well-known human rights advocate, also stated that Bashar al-Assad "committed crimes for years" and "killed hundreds of thousands of Syrians," saying: "The Islamic Republic has supported him and his bloodthirsty father over the past decades. It poured billions of dollars of the Iranian people's wealth into keeping him in power. Through criminals like Qassem Soleimani, it accompanied him in the massacre of the Syrian people, and it is natural that this domino of fall will pave the way for Tehran. The future that is evident for Ali Khamenei." He expressed hope that "Bashar al-Assad, the butcher of Syria, will one day be brought to justice before the people of that country and face the consequences of what he did." A group of users also reacted to the fall of Bashar al-Assad with humor and sarcasm. Among them, Ali Karimi, a prominent and popular Iranian football figure and an opponent of the Islamic Republic, published an image of Zainab Soleimani and, alluding to her hope for "revenge" for the elimination of Qassem Soleimani by the proxy forces of the Islamic Republic, whom she referred to as "uncle," wrote: "Uncle Bashar is gone too! Comment with the remaining uncles for Zainab." Yadeh Kimiaei, a journalist, also stated that with the fall of Bashar al-Assad, "the cry of freedom has echoed in Damascus," saying: "Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, Russia, and now Ali Khamenei and his pool remain." Reactions to the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government in Syria have also reached political prisoners in Iran, as Saeed Afkari recounted that on Sunday, December 9, his family was able to visit his brother Vahid Afkari, and he was "overjoyed with the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime." According to him, Vahid's joy, the brother of the executed protester Navid Afkari, was such that "a smile did not leave his lips until the last moment of the visit." Saeed Afkari also recalled: "My brother Vahid Afkari has been in solitary confinement for 1556 days since September 6, 2020, when he and Navid and Habib were beaten by the prison guards." Asghar Sepahri, a civil activist whose brother and sister, Mohammad Hossein and Fatemeh Sepahri, are also well-known political prisoners opposing the Islamic Republic, referred to the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court for the Israeli Prime Minister, saying: "Now that Bashar al-Assad has fallen, Karim Khan, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court in The Hague, can also issue an arrest warrant for Assad so that it seems that the arrest warrant for Netanyahu and Galant has been issued impartially!" Moloud Hajizadeh, a journalist, also emphasized that "the images and news coming from prisoners being released from Assad's prisons are astonishing" and added: "People who had been missing (abducted) for years or people who were thought to be dead or killed. With the fall of Khamenei, what will we see from the prisons of the Islamic Republic!" Atena Daemi, a human rights activist, also referred to the release of "thousands of prisoners" from Syrian prisons following the fall of Bashar al-Assad, saying: "Bashar al-Assad killed thousands to maintain power, kept his opponents in prison for many years, and made thousands of Syrians refugees, but ultimately, like other dictators, he fell." Ms. Daemi, who has previously spent years in the prisons of the Islamic Republic, wrote on social media X: "I eagerly watched the moment the prison doors opened and prisoners were freed, and involuntarily remembered the days when we waited with all our being for our prison doors to open one day at the hands of the people and we would all be free together." She emphasized: "One day, not too far away, we will also celebrate the fall of the Islamic Republic. The day when Ali Khamenei and the perpetrators of all the crimes of this regime are put on trial and our long-held dream of freedom becomes a reality." Najat Bahrami, a journalist, also stated after the fall of Bashar al-Assad: "Repressive regimes become more vulnerable with external defeat, and the Islamic Republic is now a defeated, miserable, and discredited government. Both to bring this government down and to avoid becoming Syria, Libya, and Iraq, we must emphasize a national revolution aimed at establishing freedom and equal rights for every citizen of Iran." This political analyst also emphasized: "Let us not forget that the other edge of the fall of governments and the lowering of statues can be chaos and civil war. The nature of Iran is different from Syria, and everyone must be careful that political projects and project-takers from abroad do not lead minds to dangerous models and patterns. We must fight the Islamic Republic and also protect the integrity of our country." Hossein Ronaghi, a political activist in Iran, also referred to Bashar al-Assad as a "bloodthirsty and ruthless dictator" in Syria, stating that his fall is "a great lesson for all authoritarian governments" and said: "The Islamic Republic, under the pretext of defending the Haram, has sacrificed Iran and its people's financial resources to preserve this dictator. Tens of billions of dollars of Iran's national wealth, which could have been spent on developing the country's infrastructure and improving the economic and social lives of the people, were wasted on creating a nation, warmongering, and supporting government crimes that had no connection to Iran's national interests." Mr. Ronaghi added: "History has shown that the fate of all dictators is to fall. Just as Bashar al-Assad fell, the Islamic Republic cannot escape this inevitable fate. No power, especially the power of an illegitimate government, can withstand the will and unity of the people of a country. The day the people of Iran restore glory and freedom to their country and reclaim Iran is closer than one might think. This event will not only mark the beginning of the end of dictatorship in the region but will also herald the freedom and revival of the true authority of the Iranian nation." Hamid Fard, a protest rap singer and opponent of the Islamic Republic, recounted part of one of his previous songs with the theme "To the cries of mothers, to their tears, you too will pay for it, Bashar al-Assad," writing: "In 2012, when I was writing the rap text 'Battle for Homs' in our small room in Rasht, I believed that the fall of Assad was near." He stated that at that time, "the half-dead Assad regime, with the artificial respiration of the Islamic Republic and Russian support, lasted a few more years," adding: "Today, his bloodthirsty regime has been sent to the dustbin of history." Abdullah Mousolchi, an opponent of the Islamic Republic in Iran who recently published a picture of raising the Israeli flag next to the Azadi Tower in Tehran, wrote in reaction to Assad's fall: "Hamas fell in a year, Hezbollah fell in a month, Bashar al-Assad fell in a week, and the Islamic Republic will fall in a day!" Shahram Rafieizadeh, a journalist, also referred to a picture of Abbas Araghchi dining in a restaurant in Damascus last week, which some users humorously called "the last supper," saying: "From Abbas Araghchi's trip to 'declare the Islamic Republic's firm support for Assad' and that fake dinner in Damascus to Assad's fall and the destruction of the pictures of Nasrallah and Soleimani at the entrance of the Islamic Republic's embassy in the Syrian capital, only a week passed." Following the rapid and painless advance of the opposition groups against Bashar al-Assad's government, these groups captured cities such as Homs, Deir al-Zor...