Tariq Raouf: Completion of Iran's Commitments Depends on the PMD Report

The first meeting of the Joint Commission of Iran and the 5+1 group was held, led by Abbas Araqchi, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister, and Helga Schmid, Deputy Secretary-General of the European External Action Service. Araqchi described the meeting as constructive and stated that the commission is scheduled to meet again in about a month. However, if not needed, according to the agreement, the Joint Commission must meet every three months in one of the cities of Vienna, Geneva, or New York. This commission was formed to advance preparations for the implementation of the comprehensive agreement and must also review the implementation process during the years of the agreement and take action in case of any issues. Regarding this commission and the process of implementing the comprehensive agreement, Radio Farda interviewed Tariq Raouf, the Disarmament Program Director at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Raouf previously served as the verification and security policy director at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The Joint Commission has just begun its work. I do not want to evaluate what has not been done, but what is your opinion on the mechanism that Iran and the 5+1 have chosen to monitor the implementation of the comprehensive agreement? This is an interesting mechanism and I think it has been chosen based on the experience of Iran and the 5+1 in the past two years of negotiations. This approach works with a mechanism based on decision-making and problem-solving and is limited to those who have reached this comprehensive agreement, excluding any external actors, including the UN Security Council or the US Congress. This issue of external interference was one of Iran's concerns. As a result, although there are six countries and the European Union on one side and Iran on the other, the Iranians concluded that working with the Joint Commission would be beneficial for all. Now, 90 days after the adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, we have reached the acceptance date of the agreement. From today, Iran will begin work to limit various aspects of its nuclear program. Dr. Salehi, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, has stated that these actions will take about two months or a little longer, but the American side believes that this process may take up to six months. In this regard, I wanted to ask you if you have any estimates of how much time is needed for these actions to be completed by Iran? It is hard to say, but estimates can be made. My guess is that Dr. Salehi meant that Iran can stop the operation of the necessary centrifuges in two months, and the collection of them can be done later, which will also be under the Agency's safeguards. The same goes for the Arak heavy water reactor. Construction work will stop, the work of dismantling the reactor core will begin, and the work of reducing the stockpile of low-enriched uranium, which has already been underway, must continue until it reaches 300 kilograms. Therefore, there is the capability to carry out these actions in two months, but considering, for example, the collection of centrifuges and the Agency's verification, not all actions will be completed in two months. However, to enter the day of implementing the agreement and lifting sanctions, which Iran says will probably be in about two months, these actions must be completed and verified by the Agency. Tariq Raouf, a nuclear and disarmament expert at SIPRI, stated that this is correct. First, the Agency must publish its report on the PMD (Possible Military Dimensions) of Iran's nuclear program by December 15. This has been Iran's condition that only when the Agency's final review on PMD is published and the Board of Governors addresses this case, will Iran complete its commitments under the nuclear agreement. Therefore, it seems unlikely that Iran will start collecting its centrifuges from today until December 24. This comes as an American official reiterated in recent days that the roadmap agreed upon by Iran and the Agency and the report on it are not related to the comprehensive agreement between Iran and the 5+1 and that these two are not dependent on each other. This is true. However, as I understand it, the Iranians have said that they will complete their actions after this report. They can carry out the preparations. However, they are concerned that some actions are irreversible and that despite these actions, they will not see the lifting of sanctions by the day of implementing the agreement. This issue is somewhat related to the internal situation in Iran, the parliament, the Guardian Council, and similar entities. But wouldn't it be in Iran's interest to complete actions based on the comprehensive agreement as soon as possible, regardless of the Agency's report on PMD, to witness the lifting of sanctions? You see, there is still a lot of distrust between the parties. Iran's theory is that if it collects the centrifuges and removes the Arak core, and then the Western side does not lift the sanctions as per the agreement, returning to the previous situation will be very difficult. Therefore, it wants the PMD issue to be resolved first and removed from the way, as this issue has also been the creator of the UN Security Council sanctions. After resolving this issue, Iran is ready to complete steps, some of which will be irreversible, and others, such as reinstalling centrifuges at Fordow and Natanz, will take a long time.