The 2024 Budget Arrives at the Majlis; A Winter of Livelihoods, A Spring of Military Spending

The budget for the year 2024 was delivered to the Islamic Consultative Assembly by Ebrahim Raisi today, with experts citing the published text as indicating that the budget will worsen the livelihood conditions of the people. They noted that while significant attention and guarantees have been allocated for military spending, there is no consideration for the people's livelihoods. Experts pointed to the section of the bill that allocates over 134 trillion tomans for 'strengthening defense capabilities' in 2024. Accordingly, the government has proposed that 'in the event of non-allocation' of this amount, the National Oil Company is obliged to allocate crude oil or gas condensates to legal entities introduced by the General Staff of the Armed Forces equivalent to the monthly difference. This has drawn considerable criticism, as the people face numerous challenges, including securing medicine and essential goods due to budget shortfalls, while the government has not proposed any supportive plans or guarantees for their budget. One noteworthy aspect of this budget bill, as reported by ISNA, is that 'the sources and expenditures are written in euros,' which analysts believe indicates the government's intention to replace the dollar with the euro. In this context, Mostafa Hashemi-Taba wrote on December 7 in the newspaper Sazandegi: 'This is a symbolic action; they just wanted to remove the word dollar from the budget.' Meanwhile, the website 'Tejarat News' has also examined the budget bill, stating that 'the first section of the budget bill carries strange numbers.' According to this website, the bill states that 'tax revenues will reach 1,122 trillion tomans, reflecting a 50% increase compared to the current year.' The Mehr News Agency reacted to the 50% increase in tax revenues, stating that 'next year, tax revenues are expected to increase by nearly 50% compared to this year, partly due to rising inflation in the country, although this year's inflation has been reported at around 30 to 40%, not 50%.' However, the head of the Planning and Budget Organization responded to criticisms regarding the budget bill's tax section on December 7, stating that 'the government is in no way seeking to impose new tax burdens on the people, businesses, and wage earners,' emphasizing that taxes are collected according to the law. The 'Tejarat News' website, however, noted that oil revenues are estimated to be 16% lower than this year. Mohammad Taghi Fayyazi told this website: 'Regarding oil revenues in recent years, either oil has not been sold due to sanctions, or if it has been sold, the currency generated has not entered the country.' He added: 'Monthly reports from the Planning Organization also show that only about 50% of the figures projected in the budget have been realized. Therefore, it can be expected that the majority of the resources forecasted in the budget from oil sales will not be achievable.' Another point in the text of next year's budget bill is the government's projected income of 60 trillion tomans from the privatization of state-owned companies. Previously, the Islamic Republic government announced the implementation of a plan known as 'asset generation,' which has faced widespread criticism from opposing economists and labor and professional organizations in Iran. Additionally, according to the budget bill for next year, it is projected that the sale of debt securities will reach 254 trillion tomans, reflecting a 36.1% increase compared to the previous year. The proposed budget also includes an 18% increase in government employees' salaries and a 20% increase in the payments to military and civil retirees. This is occurring at a time when inflation has exceeded 45% just in October of this year.