The Battle of Tikrit

Two weeks after the start of the "Liberation of Tikrit" operation, there are still no clear results regarding its fate. While Shiite news agencies in Iraq and subsequently the news centers of the Islamic Republic in Iran have celebrated the victories of the Shiite militias known as "Hashd al-Shaabi," the Iraqi army's statement indicates that the battle has been halted and they are waiting for new reinforcements. During nearly two weeks of fighting that began on March 2, the Shiite militias, especially "Alaa al-Haq," played a central role in this operation and were the "shock troops," while the Iraqi army did not participate in frontline ground battles. Hadi Ameri, Iran's number one man in Iraq, commands the "Hashd al-Shaabi" or the volunteer militias. He has spent nearly 25 years of his life in Iran and is a trusted figure of Qassem Soleimani. He has a long history of commanding the "Badr Brigade" and served as Minister of Transportation in Nouri al-Maliki's government. Despite Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi describing the attack on Tikrit as part of the fight against terrorism and the liberation of a part of the Iraqi people who fell under the captivity of ISIS forces, Hadi Ameri has dubbed this operation as "the revenge of Speicher," which his forces must exact from the "takfiris." Speicher is an air force base near Tikrit where ISIS executed 1,700 Iraqi soldiers, most of whom were Shiite and from southern Iraq, at the time of its capture. The Shiite militias, led by "Alaa al-Haq," accuse the residents of the "Albu Ajeel" area of Tikrit of being involved in the Speicher massacre. Recently, the name of this area has been on the lips of many Arab television networks, as some news published on websites and social media reported another crime in the Albu Ajeel area, accusing Ala'a al-Haq of completely burning the area along with all its inhabitants and farms. Ahmed al-Tayyeb, the Grand Mufti of Al-Azhar, reacted to the events in Albu Ajeel and issued a strong statement condemning what he termed a "crime" in Salah al-Din province, Iraq. In response to this statement, Haider al-Abadi implicitly acknowledged that crimes have occurred in Tikrit but attributed them to infiltrators and "rogue" groups. One of the Shiite clerics in Najaf, Bashir Najafi, requested that the Grand Mufti of Al-Azhar send a research group to the area for verification, but those close to Ahmed al-Tayyeb have stated that sending a research group to Iraq these days means entering the archives of "whitewashed" files. With the transformation of the Tikrit war into a religious confrontation in the region, especially at the highest level among the religious leaders of the Islamic world, it seems that the United States is reluctant to stand by any of the warring groups and be accused of siding with one side in the ongoing conflict. The U.S. is currently accused by both Shiites and Sunnis of siding with their adversaries in this conflict. Shiite media in recent days have accused coalition forces of bombing Iraqi forces in the "Beiji" area on December 24, killing 22 of them. On the other hand, Sunni forces accuse the U.S. of coming to war against Sunnis alongside Shiite militias. However, the U.S. has attempted to portray ISIS as a common enemy for all and has sought cooperation from everyone in this regard. But when Shiite militias engage in actions similar to those of ISIS, the U.S. efforts face difficulties, and its objectives become obscured in the dust of sectarian strife. The U.S. does not want its war against ISIS in the region to turn into a religious confrontation between Sunnis and Shiites. However, both Shiite extremists and Sunni extremists are fueling sectarian war and using it as an "anti-American mechanism." To counter the propaganda against Shiite militias, both Qassem Soleimani and Hadi Ameri have tried in recent months to form a coalition of Sunni tribal forces similar to what has become known as "Alaa al-Haq" among Shiites. Part of the Al-Jabour tribe, which resides in most Sunni areas of Iraq, cooperated with this plan, and a group of 250 people led by an individual named "Khalid Jabara" was formed in the "Alam" area of Tikrit, known as "Alaa al-Alam." The Al-Jabour tribesmen are divided between government forces and ISIS, and some of the government forces from this tribe have allied with Qassem Soleimani and Hadi Ameri. The Alam area is located north of Tikrit, and its cooperation with forces under Hadi Ameri's command has played an important role in the advance of these forces towards Tikrit and its siege. These forces are the first Sunni forces to join the ranks of Ala'a al-Haq. Their disagreements with ISIS and their non-cooperation with the "Islamic State" have led to the execution of many young people in the area by ISIS. Therefore, these tribes have now risen up for revenge, while ISIS leaders have permitted the shedding of their blood just like that of Shiite militias. However, among all this, Alam is the only place where there are no signs of sectarianism, and Shiite and Sunni militias are fighting together against ISIS. This has raised hopes that such joint cooperation could spread to other areas, especially since the Alam area shows less evidence of war destruction compared to other areas of Tikrit. Challenges of the Tikrit War: Although the Tikrit area fell easily to ISIS, there are significant challenges ahead for the Iraqi government and its allies in reclaiming it: 1- The problem of protecting liberated areas: The fundamental question now is which force will be responsible for protecting Tikrit after its liberation? In the past, the Iraqi army, despite all its equipment and training, proved that it could not sustain against ISIS terrorists, and based on this experience, the current leadership of the Iraqi government is unwilling to assign this duty to them. During the attack on Tikrit, we also saw that the army's role was complementary and supportive and not at the forefront of the attacks. However, handing over liberated areas to Shiite militias like Ala'a al-Haq will fuel a permanent conflict in the region and increase the likelihood of Shiite-Sunni war. Therefore, finding a local partner in the area to manage the liberated cities and regions has become very important. However, this partner faces two fundamental problems. First, some radical Shiite groups do not tolerate any Sunni partners in these areas and consider all Sunnis to be terrorists and collaborators with ISIS or the Ba'ath Party. Second, leaders of some Sunni parties still do not trust the Shiite government of Iraq and prefer to reach an understanding with the U.S. and European countries to manage their areas instead of the Haider al-Abadi government. The future approach amid these conflicting views is still unclear, and for this reason, it is not easy to speak about the future of these areas. 2- Regional Alliances: The Tikrit war has already led to the emergence of regional alliances to stop the advance of the Islamic Republic in Arab countries. Iran has openly declared its involvement in the Tikrit war, and Qassem Soleimani no longer hides his presence in Iraq. The forces currently at the forefront of the attack on Tikrit, whether Hashd al-Shaabi or security forces, are close to Iran, thus reinforcing the hypothesis that they are all led by Qassem Soleimani. In recent weeks, King Salman of Saudi Arabia met with leaders of eight regional countries, and after lengthy discussions, the idea of a "Sunni bloc" against the expansionist ambitions of the Islamic Republic was raised. A country outside the Arab sphere, such as Pakistan, has announced its readiness to join this new coalition, and Turkey has expressed its willingness to participate in the liberation of Mosul in the not-too-distant future. Iran's entry into the Tikrit war could even accelerate the subsequent actions of regional countries, and Iranian leaders would be gravely mistaken if they assessed their calculations for entering Iraq in the same way as their intervention in a poor country like Yemen. It only takes someone with Khamenei's expansionist spirit to ignite another war in the region like in 1980.