The Beginning of the Post-Dryness Era

The increasing dryness of the Hoor al-Azim wetland due to improper oil programs during Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's administration and the news of a 50% reduction in Iran's surface runoff are two reports that indicate an unpleasant reality: the risk of drying up water resources in Iran. The construction of certain oil structures in the Hoor al-Azim wetland, as stated by Masoumeh Ebtekar, head of Iran's Department of Environment, has prevented water from entering this wetland. Hoor al-Azim, or the Great Hovizeh Wetland, is the largest wetland in Khuzestan province, located on the Iran-Iraq border, and has recently faced the danger of complete drying and destruction. On Saturday, the head of Iran's Department of Environment spoke to the Iranian Students' News Agency (ISNA) about the oil pollution in Hoor al-Azim, stating that the oil exploration program in the wetland area during Mohammad Khatami's presidency was conditional on not harming the wetland, and some oil projects were approved with this condition. However, according to Ebtekar, after Khatami's administration ended and Ahmadinejad's presidency began, some oil structures hindered water from entering the wetland. This is a problem that Ebtekar says the current government wants to rectify. Ismail Kahrma, an environmental expert and university professor in Tehran, explains the threat to Hoor al-Azim, saying: 'This very important wetland, where about four thousand old residents lived and had a very ancient civilization, has been burned like a candle from both sides. During the war, Saddam Hussein ordered that this wetland be dried up and its water drained. On the other side, we started building oil facilities in the eastern part of the wetland. As a result, oil has again sidelined environmental issues in our country. Now we have a wetland that is half dried up, producing dust storms, and the eastern part, which borders us, is suffering from various oil pollution that has made it impossible for valuable migratory birds to pass through.' Masoumeh Ebtekar also told ISNA that in the early days of the current administration, the Department of Environment requested water to be brought into the wetland, which has been operational since mid-last year, and water has entered Hoor al-Azim, with some parts of the wetland now being filled with water. Meanwhile, the amount of surface runoff in Iran has decreased by 53% compared to the long-term average, about two decades ago, across six main watersheds. Nasser Karami, a climatologist and environmental expert residing in Norway, in a statistical comparison regarding the reduction of Iran's runoff volume, states: 'Looking back over two decades, we had about 450 billion cubic meters of inflow, of which about two-thirds evaporated and became inaccessible, and around 130 to 140 billion cubic meters of rainfall fell on Iran. This water was renewable. However, now we have over-exploited it. Dam constructions and uncontrolled agricultural growth aside, the bigger problem, which unfortunately has not received much attention from the Iranian academic community, is that real climate change has occurred in Iran. The previous statistics of 250 mm of annual rainfall or 130 to 140 billion cubic meters of inflow no longer exist. Anyone analyzing based on this will certainly be wrong. Now rainfall in Iran has decreased from 250 mm to about 200 mm, which is at least a 20% reduction. But runoff has decreased even more because, in addition to reduced rainfall, we are also facing increased temperatures, which raises evaporation rates. The statistics announced yesterday, meaning what the Ministry of Energy announced, indicates that we have gone from 130 billion cubic meters to 80 or 90 at most. I believe this is the water that is realistically falling in Iran and is accessible and usable.' Given this situation, Iran's water resources are threatened more each year than the previous one. But what should be done to combat this situation? Nasser Karami also states: 'We need to change our lifestyle. This is a difficult task. We must significantly limit agriculture in Iran. We need to change the ways we consume drinking water, urban water, and household water. In industry, the entire concept of industrial development in Iran needs serious reconsideration. Perhaps many water-intensive industries no longer make sense and should be phased out. We have entered a new era, a post-normal climatic era. Our normal climate used to have about 130 billion cubic meters of accessible water, and that era has ended; we have stepped into a new period. We must adapt ourselves to this post-normal climatic era, the post-dryness era. A drying has occurred in Iran. It is not a drought because if it were a drought, it would return. However, this drying will never return.' During rainfall, some of the fallen water is absorbed by the ground, and some flows on the surface, draining into rivers and seas. This remaining water is known as surface runoff, which has significantly decreased in volume in Iran.