The British Referendum and the Likelihood of Trump's Victory

The majority vote of British citizens in the referendum on Thursday, June 23, was stunning and surprising. The day before, many pro-EU politicians in London were optimistic about the referendum's outcome, and the situation was similar in major European capitals, although they viewed the referendum as a tactic for Britain to negotiate for more concessions from the EU. Many analysts and political observers believed that the British were well aware of the consequences of leaving the EU and the damage it would inflict on the economy and financial markets of the country and the world, and would never vote for chaos and disorder. An Iranian economist teaching at universities in Europe and the US had privately expressed confidence that after nearly half a century of shared life with the EU, Britain would not divorce it, but all this optimism, based on a collective rationality, suddenly turned into a big question mark that needed to be answered in the context of the rise of populist politicians on both sides of the Atlantic and the significant support from ordinary people for such politicians. The transformation resulting from the British referendum has now cast doubt on many beliefs regarding the possible victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election, and whispers have arisen in political and media circles that the chances of the controversial Republican candidate defeating a strong opponent like Hillary Clinton should not be underestimated. One of the first reactions in this regard can be referenced in an article in Friday's Washington Post, which stated, 'When we consider all the controversies surrounding Donald Trump and the damage he has inflicted on himself in just the past month, along with the minimal costs he has incurred in key states, we realize the depth of polling results and are surprised at how closely his supporters' votes match those of his Democratic rival.' The Washington Post further adds that 'in Britain, the campaign for leaving the EU, like Trump's advertisements, was fueled by fiery emotional appeals, while the frantic effort to separate from the continent was less organized and chaotic compared to the campaign of those supporting continued EU membership [of 28 European countries]. Ultimately, what mattered was the result of the people's votes, which reflected a significant dissatisfaction of a portion of British society with the status quo.' In a hasty reaction, Donald Trump said, 'They [the British people] have taken back their country, and this is a great thing.' After this brief statement made in Scotland before media representatives, he stated in a press release, 'They [the British] declared their independence from the EU and reiterated their control over their policies, borders, and economy.' Trump's statement also noted that 'in November, the American people will also have the opportunity to declare their independence again and vote on issues such as [trade] agreements, immigration, and foreign policy, placing America and its citizens above others and in the first position, and they will also have the chance to reject the rule of global elites and favorites, embracing real change that represents government of the people, by the people, and for the people.' In Washington, some analysts claim that in the short term, the unfortunate consequences of the British referendum will benefit Hillary Clinton, Trump's Democratic rival. Mrs. Clinton supported Britain's continued membership in the EU, while Mr. Trump supported its exit. The vote for Britain's separation from the EU brought financial market turmoil, and according to American analysts, the relentless tsunami of its damages to the global economy will be such that its undeniable negative effects on the value of American pension funds and savings accounts will be immediate. On the other hand, the potential benefits of Britain's exit from the EU will become clear in the long term and after the US general elections; however, it is important not to overlook that worldwide, with the resurgence of nationalism and the rise of populist methods, there is widespread and intense opposition to the status quo and the prevailing traditional order, often accompanied by public anger. The famous slogan 'Make America Great Again,' which Donald Trump constantly repeats, may serve as the key to this controversial Republican's entry into the White House and transform the political landscape of the United States—a surprising transformation that, if it occurs, will depict an astonishing reality.