The Catastrophic War in Yemen; Saudi Arabia and the U.S. Deadline

In the early hours of April 6, 2015, a military intervention in Yemen named "Decisive Storm" began with airstrikes by a coalition of Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia. This operation was one of the first actions taken by Mohammed bin Salman after he became Minister of Defense. At that time, Houthi militants (Ansar Allah movement), who the Riyadh government believes are fighting on behalf of Iran, had ousted the then-President of Yemen, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, from the country by controlling the capital, Sana'a. The overall goals of "Decisive Storm" were to establish a new political order in the Middle East by preventing the Islamic Republic from interfering in the internal affairs of Arab countries. The military objectives of this operation included restoring legitimacy to the legal president of Yemen, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi; pushing back Houthi militants from urban areas and streets; and disarming the Houthis. During this operation, coalition forces led by Saudi Arabia bombarded Houthi positions and units loyal to Ali Abdullah Saleh (President of Yemen from 1978 to 2012) and their supply lines, halting the offensive operations against Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi's forces to create better conditions for negotiations in their favor. In such circumstances, Saudi Arabia and other coalition countries launched a new operation named "Renewal of Hope" just 26 days after the execution of the initial operation. Some media and political observers interpreted this operation as a gradual shift away from military attacks by Saudi Arabia and the beginning of efforts to resolve the Yemen crisis through dialogue and diplomacy. The statements of the coalition's spokesperson at the time, Brigadier General Ahmed Asiri, also reinforced this change in Saudi strategy. In a press conference on April 20, 2015, he stated that with the end of the first phase of operations: "In the second phase, during the Renewal of Hope operation, we will strive for political solutions, and simultaneously with humanitarian operations, Houthi positions will be bombed if necessary." Despite some optimism following Saudi Arabia's decision to place diplomacy alongside military operations, the Renewal of Hope operation has continued for three and a half years, and political efforts to resolve the Yemen crisis have gone nowhere. Despite miscalculations and the failure of its ineffective military strategy to resolve the crisis, Saudi Arabia continues to base its political dialogue efforts on UN Security Council Resolution 2216. One of the demands of this resolution is that the parties involved in the Yemen crisis, especially the Houthis, unconditionally end violence and withdraw from the areas they have occupied, avoiding any actions that would undermine the political transition in Yemen. The continuation of Saudi military operations and the ongoing struggle of the Houthis, along with the ineffectiveness of diplomatic efforts to end the Yemen war, have pushed the country to the brink of disaster, and Yemen is now referred to as the largest humanitarian crisis in the world. So far, over 17,000 Yemenis have lost their lives in this conflict, and 22 million Yemenis (three-quarters of the country's population) are in need of humanitarian assistance. At least 14 million Yemenis, especially children, are at risk of famine, and nearly one million have contracted cholera. The "Global Peace Foundation" affiliated with Tufts University in the U.S. published a comprehensive report in October this year, attributing the humanitarian crisis in Yemen to two main factors: the airstrikes of the coalition countries and the food and economic war that has intensified over the past two years. "Examining the damage inflicted on food producers (farmers, livestock breeders, and fishermen), along with targeting food processing and storage facilities and transportation means in urban areas, and generally a broader economic war, indicates that the coalition forces aim to destroy the production and distribution resources of food in areas controlled by the Houthis... and thus the deliberate destruction of [resources and facilities]... constitutes a war crime." An international investigative group led by Kamal Jendoubi recently reported to the UN that in the Yemeni civil war, the parties involved have repeatedly violated international humanitarian laws, and some of their actions amount to war crimes, including arbitrary detentions, torture, sexual assaults, and the conscription of children as young as seven or eight as child soldiers. Despite the humanitarian crisis in Yemen and the destruction of the country's infrastructure, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the main members of the Arab coalition, have, with the unconditional support of the U.S., so far ignored international criticisms and calls from human rights organizations to end military attacks. The Trump administration had supported the effectiveness of the coalition countries' strategy in Yemen until very recently. The U.S. President, in his last speech at the UN General Assembly, held Iran responsible for the "massacre and destruction" in Yemen and praised Saudi Arabia and the UAE for their willingness to provide billions in financial aid to Yemen, stating: "These two countries are seeking various ways to end the horrific civil war in Yemen." However, he did not mention the fact that the military operations of Saudi Arabia and other coalition countries have significantly increased the internal conflict and its human and inhumane toll over the past three and a half years. Two weeks before Trump's speech at the UN (September 12), Mike Pompeo assured Congress that the coalition forces led by Saudi Arabia were doing everything possible to reduce civilian casualties and assist in delivering humanitarian aid—statements that contradict most independent assessments regarding the Yemen war, including reports from UN investigative groups and Human Rights Watch. Meanwhile, according to the Atlantic magazine, Mike Pompeo noted in a memo to Congress that one of the main reasons for U.S. support for the Arab coalition was to "contain Iran and its influence over the Houthis." While the coalition countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the U.S., blame Iran for the Yemeni civil war at every opportunity, many experts, including Thomas Juneau, a professor at the University of Ottawa in Canada, have concluded that Iran's minimal assistance to the Houthis before Saudi military intervention in Yemen increased with the country's entry into the Yemeni civil war, and parallelly, Hezbollah also sent military advisors to train the Houthis. For Iran, the Yemen war is a low-cost way to wage proxy warfare and weaken Saudi Arabia. The Islamic Republic's objectives in Yemen are more opportunistic than strategic, aiming to exploit the Yemeni civil war to its advantage. The cost of the naval blockade of Yemen and the execution of thousands of operational flights and airstrikes against the Houthis is estimated to be between five to six billion dollars monthly for Saudi Arabia, which so far has not been able to dislodge the Houthis from Sana'a, the capital of Yemen, or restore political power to the government of Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. Saudi Arabia and the UAE seek a decisive victory in Yemen that would allow them to subdue the Houthis and cut off the Islamic Republic's influence in Yemen, and in pursuing these goals over the past three and a half years, as previously mentioned, they have received unconditional support from the U.S. During this time, the Pentagon has assisted the Saudi Navy in continuing the naval blockade of Yemen and, in addition to providing weapons and refueling Saudi bombers, has provided operational and processed intelligence to the Saudi military. Furthermore, in some cases, the U.S. has sent special forces personnel to the Saudi-Yemeni border to locate and destroy Houthi missile sites. Recently (November 9), the U.S. announced it had ceased aerial refueling of Saudi aircraft. Despite this vital assistance, the Saudi and Emirati military have been unable to achieve a military victory against the Houthis, and the U.S. has recently changed its position, asking Saudi Arabia to establish a ceasefire. In this context, U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis set a 30-day deadline for a ceasefire between the Arab coalition countries led by Saudi Arabia and Houthi fighters in a speech at the "U.S. Institute of Peace" in Washington on November 8. He stated that a ceasefire is the only way to resolve the Yemen crisis, saying: "We must move toward peace. This cannot be postponed to a future time. We must achieve this within 30 days. We have been observers of this problem long enough." Hours after these remarks, Mike Pompeo, the U.S. Secretary of State, reiterated Mattis's statements, saying: "Now is the time to stop hostilities." Meanwhile, Britain, which provides Saudi Arabia and the UAE with military, training, intelligence, and logistical support, welcomed the U.S. request and the UN-led peace talks in Yemen. What are the reasons for the U.S. change of position regarding the Yemen war and the establishment of a deadline? One reason could be the issue of the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, which has drawn international attention to the overall behavior of Saudi leaders and their military operations in Yemen. Donald Trump seeks to maintain U.S. political, military, intelligence, and economic relations with Saudi Arabia, especially with Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince and Minister of Defense, who has been attributed with ordering Khashoggi's murder. Trump has made every effort to shield him from the flood of global condemnation. Another reason for the U.S. change of position is internal pressures and serious warnings and criticisms from the UN and other international organizations regarding the Yemen catastrophe and the responsibility of Saudi leaders, which have provoked strong and angry reactions globally against them. The UN has warned that the continuation of the Yemen war could lead to the worst famine in the past century in the world. While the U.S. is trying to distance itself from Riyadh regarding Yemen, Saudi Arabia, along with Yemeni government forces, has launched a new offensive to seize the port of Hodeidah. Hodeidah, a key port in Yemen on the Red Sea, has been under Houthi control since 2014 and is essentially the gateway for food, fuel, medicine, and humanitarian aid for northern Yemen, where about 80% of the Yemeni population lives. This offensive operation is essentially a continuation of the two strategies that Saudi Arabia has relied on for three and a half years: airstrikes and depriving Yemenis in Houthi-controlled areas of food, medicine, and basic necessities. Despite the U.S. deadline for a ceasefire, Saudi Arabia's goal in this operation is to take control of the port of Hodeidah and improve the position of government forces in the anticipated negotiations with the Houthis. Following the cancellation of peace talks between the parties in Geneva in September, the UN Special Envoy for Yemen, Martin Griffiths, hopes to hold a meeting between Houthi representatives and the government of Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi before the end of the current year. Despite the Yemen catastrophe, much of which stems from Saudi strategic errors and military attacks, Riyadh still believes that the path to peace in Yemen is through defeating the Houthis. The Houthis, who have gained greater combat skills in recent years with relative assistance from the Islamic Republic and Hezbollah, do not intend to lay down their arms. The leader of the Ansar Allah movement, Abdul-Malik Badreddin al-Houthi, stated in mid-October of this year: "We want honorable peace and will not surrender." In such conditions, the pressure from foreign actors in this matter, especially the U.S. and Britain, could be decisive, as the aircraft and helicopters of the Saudi Air Force, which are entirely dependent on these two countries, would not be effective without their logistical support. Currently, there are no signs in the U.S. or Britain of resorting to such actions to pressure Saudi Arabia. Even some experts and Western media consider the U.S. distancing from Saudi Arabia to be superficial, stemming from the pressure of bipartisan parties in Congress to address the Yemen catastrophe and halt arms shipments to Saudi Arabia if it continues its attacks against the Houthis. Additionally, there are ongoing actions in Congress calling for punishment against Saudi Arabia for the murder of Khashoggi. Meanwhile, despite condemning Khashoggi's murder, Donald Trump is not seeking punitive actions against Saudi Arabia, as he himself emphasized that he considers Riyadh a strategic ally in countering Tehran. Therefore, to deflect internal pressures and criticisms and to downplay the Khashoggi murder, Trump has shifted everyone's attention to the Yemen catastrophe and his administration's deadline for establishing a ceasefire. While halting attacks from either Saudi Arabia or the Houthis could prevent the expansion of the catastrophe, it remains unclear whether adopting such a disingenuous approach that resembles a political maneuver will be fruitful and lead anywhere. In this context, the UN Special Envoy for Yemen is expected to implement the U.S. deadline and revive peace talks. For this, it is essential to hope that Saudi Arabia will end its military attacks in the coming month. The opinions expressed in this note do not necessarily reflect the views of Radio Farda. Hossein Aryan is a military and strategic affairs analyst.