The Clash of the JCPOA with Iran's Defense Needs

Following the cancellation of the IAEA Board of Governors' resolutions against Iran, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) will take a significant step towards implementation. The complexities of the JCPOA may present numerous challenges for the reciprocal commitments of Iran and the international community from the day of its implementation announcement until the next ten years. After the aspects directly related to nuclear activities, the issue of missile activities and Iran's defense capacity is the most sensitive and complex part that has already sparked multiple differences of opinion even before the announcement of the JCPOA's implementation day. The intensification of these disagreements, especially under different political conditions - including the change of the U.S. government at the end of next calendar year, could even halt the implementation of the JCPOA. The simple concept of halting the JCPOA means the reinstatement of current sanctions against Iran, after going through the legal steps outlined in the text of the agreement, and of course, the retaliatory resumption of Iran's nuclear activities. The legal process for lifting sanctions came shortly after the signing of the JCPOA, with Resolution 2231 being adopted in the Security Council, which is expected to replace previous punitive resolutions against Iran on the day the JCPOA is implemented, anticipated to be in 2016 after Iran fulfills its commitments. According to Security Council Resolution 1929, adopted in 2010, Iran was placed under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, allowing the use of military force to halt its suspicious nuclear programs, and part of Iran's missile activities was also sanctioned and prohibited. Resolution 2231 maintains Iran's arms and missile sanctions for 5 and 8 years, respectively. During this period, if a complaint is raised to exempt a case from the sanctions or if a violation is reported, the specific case must be presented and examined in the relevant commission. The issue of selling the S-300 missile defense system or Iran conducting a Emad missile test, which was protested by France and the U.S., are examples that could be separately raised in the specialized commission related to the violation of the JCPOA and put to a vote. In the review commission, Western countries hold a majority with eight members. Evidence presented in agency reports and statements from Iranian officials indicate Iran's disregard for the provisions of the sanctions, especially in the area of arms and missile activities. According to published reports, parts of the private sector and several universities and higher education centers in Iran have been engaged in providing necessary components for the Islamic Republic's arms and missile production under various covers. Hassan Rouhani, the President of Iran, admitted in statements on October 30 last year that Iran would spare no effort to circumvent sanctions. He also claimed that Iran would not implement parts of Security Council Resolution 2231 in a timely manner. These 'parts' are apparently related to Iran's missile and arms programs, although accepting and implementing Security Council resolutions in their entirety is a potential obligation of all officially member states of the Security Council. With the approval of a new resolution in the Board of Governors, and the conditional replacement of previous resolutions with the new document, similar to the stage that occurred in the Security Council, the ground for announcing the day of JCPOA implementation is prepared, while potential violations, especially in arms and missile areas in the coming months and years could halt the verification process and even lead to the suspension of the JCPOA's implementation.