The Composition of Political Forces from the Perspective of Electoral Statistics

On Thursday, reformist-aligned newspapers published a significant number of notes and reports attempting to encourage undecided citizens to participate in the elections. The newspaper Shahrvand reported that the President of the Islamic Republic, Hassan Rouhani, sent a text message to the people stating, "Dear people! Iran needs your vote." This newspaper also cited results from a poll conducted by the Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA) on March 3 and 4, indicating that among respondents, "40% stated they would definitely participate, and 17% said they were likely to participate. In contrast, 15% had not yet decided, 5% were unlikely to participate, and 23% stated they would definitely not participate." The newspaper Etemad, in its Thursday headline titled "The Storm of People's Votes," wrote that on March 7, "Iranians will go to the polls for two important elections: the Parliament and the Assembly of Experts, and widespread public participation is expected." Sociologist Hamid Reza Jalai-Pour, a reformist figure, wrote in Etemad that "based on predictions, 60% of the people will participate in the parliamentary elections, and this figure is likely to be even higher." Mohammad Reza Tajik also wrote in this newspaper that on voting day, "the social body must support those who have endured numerous hardships to play a role in the political arena." The newspaper Hamdeli published a front-page design titled "We Vote," reporting on a letter signed by 754 university professors, which stated, "If we had voted four years ago, the composition of Parliament would have been different." Adil Jahan Ara, in the editorial of this newspaper, urged citizens to participate in the elections to help form a Parliament that reflects Iranian society and not allow "others" to dance joyfully on their rights. The newspaper Shargh, in a report titled "The Composition of Social and Political Forces from the Perspective of Electoral Statistics," analyzed several past elections, stating: "There are two groups in Iran whose positions on these issues are clear; the first group consists of those who never participate in elections, and the second group includes those who always vote for the principlist faction, regardless of whether the reformist rival is present or not, they cast their ideological votes for the principlist faction." Mohsen Sharifzadeh in a report for the newspaper Shargh wrote that "15 to 20% of the people have no desire to participate in elections and have not participated in any election," and it can be estimated that about 15% of eligible voters are a special social force for the principlist faction, meaning "about 15% of eligible voters vote for the principlist faction with ideological motivation." The newspaper Qanoon emphasized on its front page that "Tomorrow is the turn of the people," addressing them with the message "On March 7, be at home." University professor Fayyaz Zahed wrote in a note in this newspaper that "if we had a more effective lever than voting, we would recommend it," but those who boycott the polls "give their opponents more power to act." Sadegh Zibakalam, in a note titled "A Great Wave is Coming," wrote in Qanoon that if reformists "convince their potential social base to go to the polls," then "a wave will start that can be compared to June 76 and June 24, 92," and it will take many extremists with it. The newspaper Arman also wrote in a note titled "The Nightmare of the Concerned 96" that not only do some factions of the principlists have a desire for Ahmadinejad's return, which they have purposefully raised on the eve of the parliamentary elections, but some are also thinking of placing Saeed Jalili in the presidency. Motahareh Shafiei, in a note for the Arman newspaper, warned Rouhani's supporters that "if they are negligent in attending the polls on Friday, the chances of Jalili's allies entering Parliament will naturally increase," and "if the concerned factions can take over the tenth Parliament in the absence of the people, just as they did in the seventh, eighth, and ninth Parliaments, then their main plan will begin: discord with the government in the last year and paving the way for its defeat against the candidate of the concerned faction, namely Saeed Jalili, in the 96 presidential election." The newspaper Iran, close to the government, also emphasized on its front page the need for "renewing the House of the People for the post-JCPOA era." According to this newspaper, in the elections on March 7, "55 million people will be eligible to vote," of which 3 million 800 thousand are first-time voters. Most newspapers close to the principlists, including Kayhan, Javan, Khorasan, Quds, Resalat, and Siyasat-e Rooz, welcomed the remarks of the Supreme Leader on Wednesday and published parts of it on their front pages. The newspaper Kayhan quoted Ali Khamenei as saying, "The enemy's intention regarding moderates is to portray them as capitulating appeasers," and also reported that Ahmad Jannati, Secretary of the Guardian Council and a candidate for the Assembly of Experts, stated at a "No to England" conference that "the fervor of the revolutionary and devout people these days reminds us of 57." The newspaper Siyasat-e Rooz also quoted the Supreme Leader stating, "The dichotomy of government and anti-government Parliament is false." This newspaper simultaneously published a note titled "The People Do Not Have Alzheimer’s," stating that when the reformists held the majority in the sixth Parliament, they had also "administered the second cup of poison" to the "Leader." The newspaper Javan also referred to this issue in its editorial and recalled the letter from 127 reformist representatives of the sixth Parliament in 2001 to the Supreme Leader, stating that they had "recommended the Leader to drink the cup of poison in submission to the excessive demands of the system of domination and, of course, their own extremism," and for this reason, in the elections on March 7, the duty of "faithful forces to the revolution is heavier than ever" because they must "neutralize the outcomes of the strategies of the past 37 years of the system of domination" and also "the various pressures and unjust and treacherous propaganda." The newspaper Resalat, in a note emphasizing that "some are caught between the Imam's line and the English line," wrote that the reformists in this year's elections attempted to "create an English wave" and "angrily shout for the removal of house arrest" to "stay in the political competition," but they "avoid clearly stating their intentions," because "in this case, not only will the people not vote for them, but they are also ready to take revenge for a series of events from before the Constitutional Revolution until now." Hamid Haji Heydari, a columnist for the Resalat newspaper, emphasized that Hassan Rouhani has descended to a "populist level of discourse." This newspaper, while referring to what it described as the decline of Hassan Rouhani's supporters, wrote that "the loss of social base" is what has happened "to the forces of moderation," and with the "decline of trust" in the eleventh government, now "talking about a second JCPOA or a second key or a second step becomes more of a mockery or anger than a stirring phrase."