The Coordinated Game of Iran's Radical Conservatives and Saudi Arabia

The execution of 47 Saudi opponents, including a Shia cleric, the attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran and its consulate in Mashhad, and the severing of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran have drawn widespread global attention. The high tensions between the two countries may complicate efforts to end the Syrian civil war and defeat ISIS. Adel al-Jubeir, the Saudi foreign minister, has threatened that his country may take new actions against Iran. The question is: what causes and motivations prompted both sides to such reactions? Radical conservatives in Iran will do anything to undermine Hassan Rouhani. Their goal is a monopolistic government, unified and subordinate to Ayatollah Khamenei. They are deeply concerned that in the two elections for the Assembly of Experts and the Islamic Consultative Assembly on February 26, 2016, reformist and moderate forces could enter the parliament, and worse, could gain a majority in the Islamic Consultative Assembly. They have prepared extensive attacks against Rouhani's domestic and foreign policies. In foreign policy, they were forced to accept the nuclear agreement. At the same time, they regarded it as a shameful and treacherous Treaty of Turkmenchay, in which hundreds of concessions were given to Western governments led by the United States without receiving any in return. They have been worried about the intended and unintended consequences of the nuclear agreement. Improving relations with Western governments is one of their problems. They are certainly opposed to negotiating with the U.S. government and establishing friendly relations with it. Iran was subjected to the harshest sanctions in history under the pretext of ambiguities in its nuclear program. However, the final report of the International Atomic Energy Agency emphasized that the military aspect was related to the past and was limited to studies. One of Hassan Rouhani's electoral promises in 2013 was that centrifuges and the wheels of the economy should turn together, rather than the economy being trapped in stagflation due to the lack of a nuclear compromise, which resulted in a negative economic growth of 6.8% and inflation of 40%. General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, the commander of the Basij Organization of the Revolutionary Guards, responded to Rouhani on January 6, 2016, saying that your eyes were on the outside and the JCPOA: 'It was supposed that both the centrifuges and the factories would run, but we saw that both wheels were punctured, and our economy fell into recession, and we saw no good.' General Naqdi explained the reason for this situation: 'It is clear that when we break our firmness and walk under the American flag fifty times, laughing and strolling, all countries feel that Iran is falling apart, and they can do anything with Iran.' Such attacks against Rouhani and Zarif have continued over the past two years, but have intensified as elections approach. However, Iranian moderates and reformists are not only facing internal radical opponents, but foreign enemies also consider them dangerous for their interests. The governments of Israel and Saudi Arabia were strongly opposed to the nuclear agreement and spared no effort to undermine it. The power struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran has lasted for at least several decades. The main goals of Saudi Arabia include: the political isolation of Iran, maintaining economic sanctions, continuing the hostile relations between Iran and the U.S., and preventing the increase of Iran's regional power. The new Saudi rulers have taken dangerous risks to achieve these goals. The ten-month bombing of Yemen under the pretext of military support for the Houthis was an act to provoke Iran. However, Iran's restraint led human rights organizations such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International to acknowledge Saudi war crimes in Yemen. The contradictory statistics from Saudi Arabia regarding the victims of the Mina incident during this year's Hajj, which are estimated by the Associated Press to be at least 2,177, with 464 of them being Iranian, also faced Iranian restraint. The Saudis saw that the Iranians not only did not take any action that would benefit them but were also invited to the Geneva conference on peace in Syria. With Russia's military intervention, the developments in the Syrian civil war did not progress in favor of the Saudi-backed Islamist groups either. The Saudi action of executing 47 individuals on January 2 was a fully conscious act aimed at provoking Iran into reaction. Sheikh Nimr was arrested in 2012 and was sentenced to 'execution by sword and crucifixion in public' on October 15, 2014. On October 25, 2015, the Saudi Supreme Court and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef issued a swift death sentence for Sheikh Nimr without prior warning. The announcement of whispers regarding the possibility of issuing a death sentence for Sheikh Nimr elicited threatening reactions from Iranian extremists. Some of the statements are as follows: Ayatollah Makarem Shirazi wrote in a statement on July 1, 2014, that this sentence is 'unbearable' for religious authorities and Shia around the world. Ayatollah Nouri Hamadani warned on July 2, 2014, in a statement regarding the situation of Shia in Saudi Arabia that the seminaries 'will not tolerate the death sentence for this great scholar.' Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami called this sentence unjust and tyrannical during Friday prayers in Tehran on October 17, 2014, saying: 'This morsel will not easily go down your throat because the execution of this free cleric will have very heavy consequences and costs for you.' Seyyed Mohammad Saeedi, the Friday prayer leader of Qom, said in a gathering of seminarians that if this sentence is carried out, 'they can be sure they will pay a heavy price. If this Mujahid cleric is executed, a quake will occur in the House of Saud, and the fall of the House of Saud will happen.' General Naqdi stated on October 17, 2014, that the death sentence for Ayatollah Nimr was not issued by Sunnis but 'is the decree of an infidel and cursed regime... If such a crime is committed by the House of Saud, this act will not go unanswered, and according to the verse of the Holy Quran, Muslims will make this world hell for them.' Dissatisfied Saudis with Barack Obama, who were aware of all the threats from Iranian extremists, executed Sheikh Nimr to provoke them into reaction and thus isolate Iran and complicate the implementation of the nuclear agreement. Extremists also constructed a fiery discourse in which the attack on the embassy and consulate of Saudi Arabia was a natural result of that rhetoric. Thus, they were pleased that the regional de-escalation policy of Rouhani's government with neighboring countries was turned into failure and enmity. Ayatollah Nouri Hamadani stated that he was 'not upset' about the severing of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Ayatollah Sadeq Larijani, the head of the judiciary, said, 'The Saudi rulers have fallen into a downward spiral,' and Iran 'has no need for relations with them and their masters.' Hassan Rouhani reacted quickly. In a statement, he called the execution of Sheikh Nimr 'inhumane and in clear contradiction to human rights and Islamic values,' but added that the people of Iran would not allow this crime to be 'used by individuals and groups to commit illegal acts and insult the sacred system of the Islamic Republic. The actions taken by a group of extremists last night in Tehran and Mashhad, which resulted in damage to the embassy and consulate of Saudi Arabia— which should be protected by the Islamic Republic of Iran—are in no way justifiable and are considered an insult to the system and a blow to the reputation of the Islamic Republic of Iran. All officials of the system are determined to seriously confront these acts of lawlessness and criminal acts.' In the end, he called on the Minister of Interior, the Minister of Intelligence, and the judiciary to punish the perpetrators of this attack decisively to 'put an end to such ugly acts forever.' Hassan Rouhani, on January 6, sent a letter to the head of the judiciary requesting immediate and urgent attention to the case of the attack on the Saudi embassy and consulate in Tehran and Mashhad. He emphasized that the perpetrators and instigators of this clear crime must be punished to prevent such assaults on the security of the country and insults to the authority and position of the system. Zero Ali Baratloo, the political deputy and head of the election headquarters of Tehran during Ahmadinejad's presidency, not only remained in his position during Rouhani's presidency but also was entrusted with the security deputy of the governorate. Now, the Ministry of Interior has dismissed him due to negligence in the attack on the Saudi embassy. However, the threats from the radical clergy have not ceased. Ayatollah Alamolhoda, the Friday prayer leader of Mashhad and a member of the Assembly of Experts, responded to Hassan Rouhani, saying, 'Why do you call the attackers on the Saudi embassy extremists, lawbreakers, and radicals and condemn them? They sever relations? Let them go to hell.' Hojjatoleslam Aghatahrani, the secretary-general of the Stability Front, recently said, 'If we were to physically enforce the command of good and forbid evil, believe me, we would tear Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani to pieces.' Radical conservatives are doing everything to seize the parliament and pressure Rouhani's government ahead of the elections. The widespread disqualification of reformist and moderate candidates is one of their plans. Ayatollah Khamenei has repeatedly emphasized in recent months that the U.S. intends to infiltrate through the nuclear agreement and elections in important institutions of the Islamic Republic. If they can topple Rouhani's government today, they will not hesitate to do so. Ayatollah Khamenei emphasized on January 8, 2016, that the elections for the Assembly of Experts are very important. The people must elect representatives who, if the Assembly of Experts wants to appoint a successor for the current leadership, choose someone who 'stands against the enemy's onslaught.' However, the future is open and uncertain, and it is not clear whether the course of events will entirely work out in their favor. Radical conservatives in Iran do not care much about the international consequences of their actions for Iran and Iranians and thus serve the interests of the governments of Israel and Saudi Arabia.