The Death of a Key Figure in Iran's Leadership; A Major Surprise with Significant Consequences

The death of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani is a major surprise with significant political consequences. He was the second most important figure in the Islamic Republic for years, playing a crucial role in key positions and major decisions of the regime. Some of these decisions were recorded and published in his daily memoirs, while he noted confidential parts of his writings in a small calendar he always carried, known only to himself. The death of this 82-year-old Ayatollah can be considered the most important political event in recent decades. Now, his absence, despite all the criticisms, changes the balance of power and complicates the position of reformists, moderates, democrats, and groups associated with him. Hashemi Rafsanjani was the only close associate of Ayatollah Khomeini who still retained some influence in central power and played a role during critical moments. Although his disagreements with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, became public during the events of 2009, Rafsanjani's social base had also been restored and strengthened. Furthermore, after his disqualification by the Guardian Council in the presidential elections, Hassan Rouhani's victory provided him with an opportunity to somewhat regain his political position. Now, above all, Hassan Rouhani, the President of Iran, has lost a supporter and an influential figure, as Hashemi's influence was somewhat a buffer against the hardliners. This will complicate the competition for Rouhani ahead of the upcoming presidential elections. On the other hand, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was a significant and decisive figure in the Assembly of Experts. He always maintained deep and effective relationships with the seminaries, to the extent that throughout his membership in this institution, he had the influence to change the internal factions of the Assembly alone. Although his position among clerics had weakened somewhat after the events of 2009, he still maintained his special status. His absence now, considering the role that the clerics in the Assembly will have in electing the future leader of the Islamic Republic, shifts the balance of power towards groups aligned with Ayatollah Khamenei and hardliner factions. In fact, a significant obstacle has been removed from the path of these factions in terms of future leadership options. Besides the aforementioned points, since the end of his presidency, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani had chaired the Expediency Discernment Council, which serves as an advisory arm for the Supreme Leader and a decision-making and mediating body within the political apparatus. Rafsanjani had attempted to maintain balance in this center and pursue five-year economic plans and increased oversight of economic performance. Now, with his passing, it seems that this key center will also slip from the hands of moderate groups. Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was an influential player and a leader-making figure in the Islamic Republic, whose life and even death could have significant political repercussions. These repercussions will continue in the months and even years to come.