The Death of Hamas Leader Shortens Israel's Target List, But Is This the End of the Gaza War?

The death of Yahya Sinwar just a few months after his appointment as the senior leader of Hamas, while highlighting the weaknesses of this extremist group, may not have a major impact on the course of the war in the Gaza Strip. Israeli officials confirmed on Thursday, October 26, the killing of Yahya Sinwar by soldiers of this country. He was the leader of this extremist group, which is recognized as terrorist by the United States and Europe. The 62-year-old Sinwar was accused of organizing and leading Hamas's deadly attack on Israel on October 15 of last year, which placed him at the top of Israel's target list. Lucas Weber, a threat intelligence analyst at the Technology Against Terrorism Center, states that the death of the Hamas leader reflects the high level of changes among senior members of this extremist group, as well as Israel's "very deep intelligence coverage and its ability to strike quickly upon identifying valuable targets." Mr. Weber also noted the timing of Yahya Sinwar's death as significant, as Israel is renewing its attacks in northern Gaza and expanding military operations against Hezbollah, Hamas's ally, in southern Lebanon. He said, "This is considered a tactical success. Israel eliminated a valuable target at a time when they needed some internal support to expand their military campaign both domestically and externally." However, Lucas Weber is skeptical about the impact of Sinwar's death on the end of the war in Gaza. Emphasizing Sinwar's extensive experience and high position within Hamas and among his supporters, he stated, "I don't think that killing him will fundamentally change the course of the conflict in any way." This analyst further noted, "Hamas continues to fight about a year after Israel's retaliatory invasion of Gaza, and defeating this extremist group will be difficult." In his view, Sinwar's death may necessitate a "shift in Hamas's policies," but it will not be "very influential" in Israel's efforts to win the war. Thanasis Cambanis, director of the Century Foundation think tank based in the United States, also states that assessing the impact of Sinwar's death on Hamas's ability to remain in power in Gaza is difficult. However, he believes that this event will have two consequences: "First, Israel may dare to pursue the complete destruction of Hamas and Gaza more aggressively, and the other, which is more positive, is that this death creates space for negotiations that could actually lead to an end to the conflict." The director of the Century Foundation further states that neither Hamas nor Israel has shown serious interest in ending the war so far, and both sides view the continuation of the war as beneficial to themselves. Thanasis Cambanis also said, "Sinwar's death could make the space a bit more dynamic and create an opportunity for Hamas to either surrender or somehow reach an agreement through negotiation that its leadership has really not been inclined to pursue until now." He sees two possibilities for Hamas: "We have seen that after periods of extreme radicalism, more pragmatic individuals have come to power, and we have also seen that in some factions or parties, individuals have even doubled down on their positions, and with the death of each leader, their successor has been even more hardline." Trita Parsi, one of the founders of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, also warned that the idea of forming Hamas, "that is, establishing a Palestinian state solely through armed resistance against Israel, has not only not disappeared but has likely grown." He added, "Israel's indiscriminate bombing in Gaza and the widespread killing of civilians, including forced starvation, has likely radicalized the Palestinian people and provided more ground for Hamas to recruit forces."