The Disappointment of Jeb Bush

In the last days of June, Donald Trump, the New York billionaire, descended from an elevator in Trump Tower to announce his intention to run for the presidency of the United States in front of a small group of his employees. At that time, Jeb Bush, the younger brother of former President George W. Bush, son of another former President George Bush, former governor of Florida, and the main hope of the Republicans for the presidency after Barack Obama, was meeting with high-ranking leaders in Eastern Europe and engaging in diplomatic negotiations. If anyone had predicted back then that Jeb Bush would last only three weeks in the Republican primaries and that Trump would be the frontrunner, many would have thought they were crazy! Jeb Bush was still the most popular candidate in all polls until late July, while some warned about the destructive effects of what they called 'hereditary democracy.' However, when the results of the South Carolina primary were announced on Saturday, Jeb Bush's campaign was so severely damaged that he tearfully announced in front of television cameras that he was withdrawing from the race. In fact, the most significant outcome of the Republican primary in South Carolina was Jeb Bush's withdrawal. Otherwise, Trump's decisive victory was what had been repeated in polls since July, as he had always been significantly ahead of his rivals in South Carolina. (If you want to know why this state was so important for Jeb Bush and why he withdrew after the unfavorable result, read my previous article on this blog that I wrote before the election in this state.) The second important outcome of Saturday's election was Marco Rubio's second-place finish; he is trying to find similarities between his campaign and Bill Clinton's campaign in 1992, seeking the title 'The comeback kid.' (Bill Clinton did not finish first in any state at the beginning of the Democratic primaries in 1992, but gradually after Super Tuesday, he managed to attract more votes and eventually became not only the nominee of his party but also defeated the rival party's candidate in the general election and became president.) With his second place in South Carolina, Marco Rubio has more chances than ever to become the favored candidate of the Republican establishment and to secure the main financial support from party backers. Among the group supported by established Republican members, only John Kasich remains besides Rubio, who finished fifth in South Carolina. However, Mr. Kasich had essentially given up on his campaign in South Carolina and was currently in states where simultaneous primaries would be held on the Tuesday of the following week. One of the most important hopes for a candidate like Marco Rubio is that Bush supporters will vote for him from now on, thus increasing his votes enough to surpass Trump. Although the demographic composition of the upcoming states does not resemble each other or the previous states, some observers still believe that the withdrawal of candidates supported by the Republican core will help the final candidate (who will be either Rubio or Kasich by now). Ted Cruz, the favored candidate of the religious layers of the Republican Party, also finished third in South Carolina, showing that he is still a contender in this race and has a long way to go before withdrawing. Now, Republicans are looking to Nevada. In this state, the desired candidate will be determined through party caucuses held on the Tuesday of this week. In the polls for this state, Donald Trump is also in the lead. But now everyone is waiting to see the results of Jeb Bush's withdrawal and Marco Rubio's success in these votes. After Nevada, the big battle will take place on Super Tuesday (March 1). The extraordinary momentum of Bernie Sanders' campaign in Nevada on Saturday hit a wall with black and Latino voters, and Hillary Clinton won in this state. Of course, Clinton had been leading in the polls in this state for months, but suddenly after Sanders' victory in New Hampshire, the polling dynamics shifted, and Sanders surged. It had reached a point where even Clinton's campaign staff were discussing the difficulties of their campaign in Nevada on social media, stating that the competition there was close. However, when the results of the caucuses were finalized, the Clinton campaign breathed a sigh of relief. They won. In this context, winning in Nevada is not a significant success for Clinton, as everyone expected it. But if she had lost there, everyone would have been talking about a major defeat. The next stop for the Democratic Party is the South Carolina primary, which will be held on Saturday of the following week, and the situation in that state is somewhat similar to Nevada. That is, everyone expects Clinton to win there. If she wins, she will have met expectations. But if for any reason the tide turns in this week and she loses (which is unlikely), it would mark a significant defeat in her record. Given that the Democratic elections in South Carolina will be held just three days before Super Tuesday, such a defeat could have severe repercussions for Clinton's campaign. So far, the outcomes for three states have been clarified for both parties, and the final results regarding who stays and who goes do not differ remarkably from the initial elections. The day after that election, five individuals established themselves as the main contenders for the presidential nomination: Trump, Rubio, and Cruz from the Republican Party, and Clinton and Sanders from the Democratic Party. All five of these individuals still have the chance to ultimately become the presidential nominee and then the next President of the United States.