The Disappointment of Reformists in Ali Larijani's 'Fresh Air'

With the onset of discussions about candidates for the 2021 presidential elections, some reformists are trying to distance themselves from Ali Larijani, the Speaker of the Parliament, and criticisms regarding his role have begun. Previously, supporters of Ali Rabiei, the former Minister of Labor, criticized Larijani's role in his dismissal, and now Mohammad Ali Afshani, the former mayor of Tehran, has spoken about Larijani's collusion for the upcoming presidential elections. On November 20, Mr. Afshani stated in his farewell session: "Some said Afshani colluded with Larijani to plan for the 2021 elections, but these issues (the retirement of the mayor of Tehran) arose for everyone to understand with whom Larijani has plotted for the 2021 elections." Ali Larijani has been trying to become an independent power outside the influence of political groups in the Iranian government for about a decade, possibly imitating the role of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. He has faced attacks from conservatives and has been labeled a politician by some reformists due to his past programs like 'Identity' and 'Lamp' and accusations regarding the film 'Asr Ashura' during his presidency at IRIB. His failure in the 2005 presidential elections and his dismissal from the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad created new conditions for Larijani, who, like figures such as Ali Akbar Nategh Nouri, tried to emerge from the shadow of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, and present an independent image. Larijani stepped into the presidency of the 8th Parliament against the wishes of some conservatives and was nominated from Qom, which one journalist interpreted as an attempt to show support for the clergy. He sought to establish his new and independent image during his presidency of the 8th and 9th Parliaments. After the 2009 presidential elections, Mohammad Jafar Behdad, the CEO of IRNA, announced that the Speaker of the Parliament had congratulated him by phone on Mir Hossein Mousavi's victory on election day. However, Mr. Behdad was sentenced to prison for this claim. Initially, Larijani did not take a strong stance on the protests following the elections and actions such as forming a committee to follow up on the events after the elections did not sit well with members of the Stability Front. However, after the protests on Ashura in 2009, he joined the ranks of the Stability Front members and strongly attacked the protesters. Hassan Rouhani's presidency in 2013 created a special situation for Larijani. The two had known each other since the early years of the revolution and had close relations in IRIB and the Supreme National Security Council. Contrary to the expectations of reformists, Larijani received a significant share during cabinet formation, and some of his close associates, including Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, entered the cabinet. After a while, some members of the Stability Front in the 9th Parliament accused him of standing against the impeachment of government ministers. In the 10th parliamentary elections, according to Vahid Yaminpour, members of the Stability Front tried to reduce Larijani's votes, but reformists included him in their list. In the matter of the presidency of the 10th Parliament, some of Rouhani's close associates preferred Larijani over Mohammad Reza Aref, the reformist list leader, and after Larijani's presidency, the government appointed Hossein Ali Amiri instead of the reformist Majid Ansari as its parliamentary deputy. Now, with the emergence of candidates for the upcoming presidential elections, the political landscape has changed, and criticisms of Ali Larijani have begun. Some analysts say that although reformists accepted Hassan Rouhani's presidency, due to this failed experience, their acceptance of Ali Larijani's presidency is impossible. The first criticisms began after the dismissal of Ali Rabiei. While previously ministers of Mr. Larijani considered him their defender, this time some representatives spoke of the Speaker's role in the impeachment of the Minister of Labor in Iran. For instance, Hosni Jouriabi, a representative from Rasht, stated that Larijani "held the impeachment session in a way that even the commission meeting had not been held. The reason was that Larijani wanted Rabiei to be impeached." Ali Rabiei also wrote that he had not been invited to participate in the commission before the impeachment session, contrary to the usual procedure. Some also linked the appointment of Mohammad Shariatmadari to the Ministry of Welfare with Larijani's candidacy in this election and "funding his campaign expenses." Larijani's candidacy has also been promoted by some reformist figures close to him, including Mohammad Atrianfar. He stated in an interview: "If reformist friends reach a consensus, we all have a duty to support Mr. Larijani, but it would be better to ask the question this way: Do reformists reach a consensus about him? Yes, it is possible, but it is too early to make a definitive statement, and we should wait; perhaps we can also bring independent figures into the electoral arena. If we had Hashemi Rafsanjani in 2013, would we have gone towards Rouhani? No." Conversely, some analysts argue that although reformists accepted Hassan Rouhani's presidency, due to this failed experience, their acceptance of Ali Larijani's presidency is impossible. Sadegh Zibakalam, a political analyst, reacted to Atrianfar's remarks by saying that "introducing Mr. Larijani as a presidential candidate by reformists means destroying the remaining reputation of reformists and questioning all actions and, in fact, destroying their credibility." Some reformists like Elias Hazrati have also spoken about the candidacies of Eshaq Jahangiri and Mohammad Reza Aref for the upcoming presidential elections. Speculation about Larijani's presence in the 2021 presidential elections comes at a time when typically figures whose names have been mentioned for the presidency for a long time have been unsuccessful. Additionally, it has not been previously recorded that a defeated candidate in one election wins in the next. Ali Larijani, in the 2005 presidential elections, despite being introduced as a candidate by the Coordination Council of Conservatives, ranked sixth among seven candidates, receiving only 1.7 million votes, about six percent of the votes. He had chosen the slogans "Government of Hope" and "Fresh Air" for himself in the 2005 elections. However, now the government and parliament formed under the slogan of "Hope" are under pressure from some of their supporters who feel their hopes have been dashed. If reformists do not introduce Larijani as their candidate, he has no other social base. On the other hand, in the chaotic atmosphere following the U.S. exit from the JCPOA, the disappointment of sections of society with conservatives and reformists, which manifested in the slogan "Reformist, Conservative / The story is over," and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's insistence on continuing the current path of leading the country, the presidency of Ali Larijani or any individual close to Hassan Rouhani requires a "fresh air" that has yet to be seen in Iranian society.