Iran is once again witnessing a widespread wave of popular protests. These protests, which began in early December with strikes by shopkeepers and merchants in Tehran and then spread to several major cities, quickly expanded. Deep economic dissatisfaction, severe inflation, and the collapse of the rial's value have brought protesters to the streets. The slogans quickly evolved from issues of livelihood and economy to political chants against the government and its leader.
These protests, which have so far resulted in dozens of deaths, have raised the fundamental question of when popular protests lead to a fundamental change in the power structure or leadership of the government. Why are some movements suppressed while others can topple rulers?
Perhaps the answer can be found in a historical perspective on protests over the past few decades in various countries, examining experiences that have led to changes in political systems, providing a general picture of some factors and conditions that influence the fate of protest movements. Although many researchers and historians argue that the path and outcome of protests vary from country to country and from one period to another, and no single, specific model can be applied.
Over the past half-century, the world has witnessed uprisings and protests that have overthrown or forced out established regimes or their leaders without direct foreign intervention or classic coups.
Research based on the "Data on Violent and Nonviolent Campaigns and Their Outcomes" project shows that nonviolent civil movements have not only been more successful but have also achieved their goals more quickly. In one of these studies, an analysis of over 300 major protest campaigns from 1900 to 2006 shows that about 53% of nonviolent campaigns (with defined characteristics in this research) were successful, while this figure for violent campaigns was 26%.
This advantage is attributed to the ability to mobilize large numbers of people, gain domestic and international legitimacy, and exert political pressure. Social solidarity, divisions within security forces, effective organization, and the use of appropriate political and economic opportunities have been identified as the main factors for the success of public protests.
One of the most notable examples of these changes in the past half-century was the Iranian Revolution of 1979, which ended the monarchy and established the Islamic Republic. However, beyond that, it left long-term impacts outside Iran's borders, in the Middle East, and even beyond; inspiring Islamic movements and creating new geopolitical tensions.
The Iranian Revolution demonstrated that a "popular movement" can change the power structure, but the sustainability of these changes depends on more complex factors such as institution-building and managing internal and external pressures. Analysts of the recent protests and unrest in recent years suggest that they indicate the failure of the ruling system in Iran to establish such stability.
This article reviews the most significant successful movements and civil protests over the past half-century, attempting to provide clearer frameworks for better understanding these campaigns.
The fall of communism in Eastern Europe; a chain reaction of changes at the end of the Cold War.
This revolutionary wave between 1989 and 1992 overthrew the communist governments of several Eastern European countries one after another. One of the main features of these developments was their domino effect; thus, success in one country ignited protests in neighboring countries.
The ideological weakness of communism, severe economic crises, Mikhail Gorbachev's reforms in the Soviet Union, and popular pressures led to these changes often being peaceful and relatively quick. These revolutions demonstrated that a "successful" movement can shake an entire political bloc.
Labor protests and widespread strikes in Gdansk shipyards and other cities against shortages of goods, inflation, and political repression, led by Lech Wałęsa, resulted in the "Round Table" negotiations and "semi-free" elections in 1989. This non-violent uprising ended the communist regime and brought Wałęsa to the presidency.
Student and popular protests in Prague against the communist government, economic shortages, and repression of free speech began with hundreds of thousands in the streets and organized nationwide strikes. This peaceful movement led to the resignation of the Czechoslovak communist government and the election of Václav Havel as president in less than a month.
East Germany - The fall of the Berlin Wall (1989)
Widespread protests in cities like Leipzig against shortages of goods, travel restrictions, and political repression, along with the mass flight of citizens to the West, paralyzed the East German communist government. On November 9, 1989, the Berlin Wall fell, paving the way for the reunification of Germany in 1990.
The Romanian Revolution was the bloodiest uprising in the Eastern bloc, initially sparked by the expulsion of a priest in Timișoara. However, it quickly spread as people rose against poverty and the severe repression of Nicolae Ceaușescu's government. Unlike other countries, this revolution was accompanied by armed conflict with the army - which joined the revolutionaries - and the secret police. Ceaușescu, shortly after the unrest began, traveled to Tehran at the invitation of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the then-president of Iran, and returned to Romania on December 20. Five days later, on Christmas 1989, he was tried and immediately executed along with his wife.
Protests in Sofia, the capital of Bulgaria, and other cities against Todor Zhivkov, the General Secretary of the Communist Party and head of the People's Republic of Bulgaria, due to the economic crisis, food shortages, and repression of dissent, forced him to resign after 35 years in power and marked the end of the communist regime in Bulgaria.
Albania - Democratic Revolution (1990-1992)
The change of government in Albania was a reaction to decades of absolute and dictatorial isolation left by Enver Hoxha's regime. Before his death in 1985, he had led the communist system in Albania for over four decades. This movement also began with student protests and labor strikes against poverty, severe shortages of goods, and political repression. The toppling of Hoxha's statue in Tirana, the capital, symbolized the collapse of the "last bastion of communism" in Europe.
The events surrounding the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe were more the result of a combination of common factors in different areas than a single model. Chronic economic weakness, erosion of ideological legitimacy, social pressure, and changing Soviet approaches severely limited the operational space of governments. Despite the different paths - from low-tension transitions to violent collapses - the common point of all these experiences was the inability of communist structures to adapt to societal demands and new international conditions.
Color Revolutions; People Against "Electoral Fraud"
These revolutions mainly began after the announcement of disputed election results and strengthened the unity of protesters through the use of color symbols (such as orange, rose, or tulip). Their main feature is focusing on exposing electoral fraud through media, NGOs, students, and youth. These uprisings, which have often been peaceful or involved limited violence, have had relatively high success in transferring power and are usually accompanied by international support - which critics view as foreign incitement - but their main force is popular mobilization.
Serbia - Bulldozer Revolution (2000)
After the presidential election in September 2000 in Serbia, opponents of Slobodan Milošević's government protested against electoral fraud. Protests quickly spread, and students and opponents took to the streets with the bulldozer symbol (to break police barriers). After several days of peaceful demonstrations, Milošević was forced to resign, marking the end of his regime after decades of war and sanctions.
Following the parliamentary elections in November 2003 in Georgia, which opponents believed were accompanied by widespread and organized fraud, a wave of peaceful protests emerged in Tbilisi, the capital. Tens of thousands took to the streets with rose branches, and through strikes and civil disobedience, they forced Eduard Shevardnadze to resign after 11 years in power. This event, known as the "Rose Revolution," brought Mikheil Saakashvili to power.
The Orange Revolution in Ukraine in 2004 arose in response to widespread allegations of electoral fraud and engineering in favor of Viktor Yanukovych, the Russia-backed candidate. Hundreds of thousands of protesters with orange symbols occupied Independence Square in Kyiv and surrounding streets. This civil pressure and reports from international observers led to the annulment of the results by the Supreme Court and a re-election that resulted in Viktor Yushchenko's victory.
Kyrgyzstan - Tulip Revolution (2005)
The Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan in 2005 was an uprising against allegations of electoral fraud in parliamentary elections and decades of family corruption under Askar Akayev. This movement began in the south and peaked with the occupation of government buildings in Bishkek. Protesters, chanting against poverty and nepotism, ended Akayev's 15-year rule and forced him to flee to Russia.
Ukraine - Euromaidan Revolution (2013-2014)
Protests began in November 2013 after Viktor Yanukovych's government - which returned to power after the failure of the Orange Revolution - decided to refrain from signing an association agreement with the European Union. These gatherings, which initially started in protest against a shift in foreign policy, gradually transformed into widespread opposition to corruption, authoritarianism, and state repression. After months of protesters occupying Independence Square and over 100 deaths, Yanukovych fled the country in February 2014, and Ukraine pivoted towards the West.
Peaceful protests in Armenia in the spring of 2018 - more than a decade after the main wave of color revolutions - began when Serzh Sargsyan, after two presidential terms, sought to maintain power by transitioning to the prime minister's position based on constitutional reforms. Thousands led by Nikol Pashinyan took to the streets, and after several weeks of marches, civil disobedience, and strikes, Sargsyan resigned, and Pashinyan became prime minister. He named these developments Armenia's "Velvet Revolution."
These revolutions, relying on innovative organizing methods, including extensive use of mobile phones, texting, and the internet in the early stages of social network expansion, strengthened popular mobilization and became a model for subsequent movements. However, their experiences showed that a change in power does not necessarily lead to the establishment of sustainable democracy. In many of these cases, internal pressures, interference from foreign actors, weak political institutions, and a return to authoritarianism undermined a significant part of the achievements of these movements.