The Future of Leadership in the Islamic Republic After Ayatollah Khamenei

Ayatollah Khamenei was born on July 15, 1939. He will soon turn 76 and enter his 77th year. The potential onset of illness at such an age is natural, especially considering the 26 years of leadership, 8 years of presidency, and other political responsibilities that have placed significant mental and physical pressure on him. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was seriously injured in an assassination attempt on June 6, 1981, affecting his chest, shoulder, and right arm. This assassination likely left lasting effects on his body and spirit. Since his selection as the successor to Ayatollah Khomeini by the Assembly of Experts on June 14, 1989, rumors about his health have circulated. Some claimed he was severely depressed, while others suggested he would die soon. On April 10, 1991, about two years after assuming leadership, he was hospitalized and underwent gallbladder surgery. Before the surgery, he openly discussed his medical history in a radio and television interview, stating that he would undergo surgery in the coming hours and would be hospitalized for two days. On April 15, he met with doctors, nurses, and hospital staff and was discharged a few days later. During his hospital stay, all system officials and some cultural figures visited him, and news of these visits was published daily. The second time he underwent surgery was on September 8, 2014, in a public hospital for prostate surgery, which was also transparently reported. In both surgical cases, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei portrayed a highly publicized image. Now that he is older, rumors have increased. It is said he has advanced prostate cancer. Even if this claim is true, cancer growth is slow at an older age, and Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini also survived for many years. Throughout his leadership, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not abandoned sports and mountaineering, indicating he has taken significant care of his physical health and claims to have achieved spiritual and mystical perfection through worship and meditation. Part of the rumors about his illness relates to external enmity. On January 3, 2007, widespread rumors circulated on websites that the Supreme Leader of Iran had passed away. Michael Ledeen also confirmed this news. Mohammad Javad Zarif, then Iran's representative at the United Nations, denied these rumors in conversations with news agencies during those days. Ayatollah Khamenei responded to these rumors on February 8, 2007, during a meeting with commanders and personnel of the Air Force, stating: "The enemies of the Islamic system create various rumors about my death and illness to perhaps weaken the spirit of the Iranian nation for a few days, but they do not realize that they are not facing an individual in Iran, but a nation." Conservative media in Iran have been constantly discussing the death of the King, Foreign Minister, and Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia for several years. Recently, Al Arabiya - the official news agency of Saudi Arabia - claimed that Khamenei was hospitalized and in poor health. The Jerusalem Post also fueled this rumor. A few days later, on March 8 and March 12, Khamenei delivered two speeches broadcasted on television. On March 21, 2015, on the occasion of the first day of the Iranian New Year, he spoke for 70 minutes in Mashhad. The issue of succession, whether Ayatollah Khamenei is ill or not, is very important. According to Articles 107 and 111 of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic, the selection and dismissal of the leader is the responsibility of the Assembly of Experts. According to Article 109, the conditions and qualities of the leader are as follows: 1 - Necessary scientific competence for issuing fatwas in various jurisprudential matters. 2 - Justice and piety necessary for leading the Islamic community. 3 - Correct political and social insight, prudence, courage, management, and sufficient power for leadership. In the case of multiple candidates meeting these conditions, the person with stronger jurisprudential and political insight takes precedence. Thus, in addition to jurisprudential expertise, management and power are also two important conditions for leadership. Given these conditions, none of the religious authorities can become the Supreme Leader, as they lack any managerial experience. None of the jurists without managerial experience can achieve leadership either. Their only chance is Ayatollah Javadi Amoli, who supported Akbar Nateq Nouri and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in the presidential elections of 1997 and 2005, both of whom lost. He dismissed Ahmadinejad's claims about connections with the Mahdi as lies and resigned from the Friday Prayer leadership in Qom in December 2009, stating that he could no longer fulfill his duties. Under these circumstances, he has no chance either. The most important figure for replacing Ayatollah Khamenei is Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani (born 1934). However, Ayatollah Khamenei has completely sidelined him. The first decade of the revolution was a decade of superiority for Akbar Hashemi over Ali Khamenei, and they met several times a week, but now they see each other once a month for the work of the Expediency Discernment Council. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and conservatives will never allow Hashemi, even if he survives after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to become the next Supreme Leader. The first possible step is that less than a year remains of the current Assembly of Experts' term, and the elections for the Assembly of Experts will be held on March 26 next year, coinciding with the parliamentary elections. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's first action will be to eliminate individuals through the Guardian Council. There are two tricks for this action: a) Mr. Khamenei has stated that supporting protests after the 2009 presidential election - the Green Movement - is a red line for the system, and none of the supporters and participants at any level of the system can hold any responsibility. The Guardian Council has explicitly stated that it will disqualify such individuals. For example, if Ali Younesi - Rouhani's assistant on minority affairs - runs, his disqualification will be very simple. If Ayatollah Mousavi Khoeiniha, who became the Attorney General by the order of Ayatollah Khomeini and was a member of the first Assembly of Experts, runs, he may be disqualified on the charge of being a "grey man" of sedition. b) The Guardian Council will test candidates who are not considered "mujtahid" and will then reject or approve their jurisprudential expertise. They will certainly disqualify rivals in the exam and will say that they are not mujtahids. If Ayatollah Khamenei can form a completely homogeneous Assembly of Experts next year using these tricks and other means, the process of appointing his desired successor will be easily resolved. One of Ayatollah Khamenei's plans will be to bring younger individuals into the Assembly of Experts who lack two characteristics: first) a history of activism before the revolution and second) proximity to Ayatollah Khomeini. Naturally, such individuals will be completely obedient to him. Sadegh Larijani - the current head of the judiciary - Ibrahim Raisi (born 1960) - the Attorney General - and Ahmad Khatami (born 1960) - a member of the Society of Teachers of Qom Seminary and temporary Friday Prayer Imam of Tehran - are examples of such individuals whom Khamenei has appointed to the highest government positions during his leadership. All three are current members of the Assembly of Experts. Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei (born 1956), Mostafa Pourmohammadi (born 1959) - both of whom have played direct roles in the crackdowns of the past three decades - and Heydar Mofidi (born 1957) - Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Minister of Intelligence - also fall into this category and are likely to enter the next Assembly of Experts. The advanced age of many members of the Assembly of Experts also forces Khamenei to adopt a youth strategy. Look at some of them: Abolghasem Khazali, 90 years old; Mohammad Imami Kashani, 84 years old; Abbas Vaez Tabasi, 80 years old; Mohiuddin Haeri Shirazi, 79 years old; Mohsen Mojtahed Shabestari, 79 years old. Therefore, next year's elections are very important. Hashemi Rafsanjani and others are also paying special attention to these elections. Their efforts are focused on trying to get as many forces as possible past the iron wall of the Guardian Council and into the Assembly. Extreme conservatives, including Ayatollah Jannati, have repeatedly stated that Hashemi is seeking to achieve a majority in the future Assembly of Experts to not only pave the way for his own presidency but also to limit leadership power through oversight. Ayatollah Khamenei has put significant pressure on members of the Assembly of Experts to not elect Hashemi Rafsanjani as the head of the Assembly. Nevertheless, Hashemi lost the competition with 24 votes against 47 votes for Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi. In other words, 24 members voted for Hashemi Rafsanjani despite Khamenei's wishes. If it weren't for Khamenei's pressure, the vote count would have been different. In 2010, Khamenei made every effort to remove Hashemi from the presidency of the Assembly of Experts. For this reason, he contacted each member of the Experts to not vote for Hashemi and pressured the ailing Ayatollah Morteza Mahdavi Kani to become a candidate for the presidency of the Experts. When Mahdavi Kani became a candidate, Hashemi Rafsanjani withdrew, and Mahdavi was elected president. The members of the Experts visited Khamenei the next day - that is, on March 10, 2011. Khamenei told them that given Mr. Hashemi's history of reason and responsibility, he "expected" him to act accordingly and that Mahdavi Kani's election was a "proper and rightful choice." This time, after the election of Ayatollah Yazdi as the president of the Experts and Hashemi's defeat, he told them that Yazdi's election "shows a proper and appropriate choice." Thus, he clearly expresses his positions. Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani stated on March 10, 2015, that the Assembly of Experts has only one sensitive moment, which is the election of the leader. He added, "For that sensitive moment, it is not necessary for me to be the president; it is enough for me to be a member of the Experts. A person in the Experts can speak and give his opinion, and if I want, I will be influential." With his statements, Akbar Hashemi increasingly distances himself. Thus, although he has lost power in the Islamic Republic, he has strengthened his social base, and if he continues his criticisms, the simplest and least costly way for Khamenei is to disqualify him through the Guardian Council - as in the presidential election of June 14, 2013 - so that he will not be influential in that "sensitive moment." Probably, based on this evidence, he wrote in his New Year's message that the people's vote must be respected and that the people's vote is the measure, adding: "Whether I am here or not, I am sure that the future of our children and the future of this land and this revolution will be filled with moderation, and the extremism and puritanism will become increasingly isolated." Individuals Who Cannot Succeed Some of the most extreme conservatives endorsed by Khamenei, due to their old age and illness, cannot succeed him. For instance, Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani - the former head of the Experts - passed away at the age of 83. Notable figures include: Ahmad Jannati (born 1926) 88 years old, Mohammad Yazdi (born 1931) 83 years old, Mohammadi Kermani (born 1931) 83 years old, and Mesbah Yazdi (born 1934) 80 years old. Possible Successors to Khamenei Among the individuals present in the leadership cadre of the Islamic Republic, some have a better chance of succeeding Khamenei: First) Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi: It is said in political circles in Iran that conservatives are seeking to make Ayatollah Shahroudi his successor after Khamenei's death. Shahroudi, born in 1948 in Najaf - one of the holy cities of Iraq - lived the first 31 years of his life in Iraq and entered Iran in April 1979. He led the "Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution in Iraq" during the first decade of the Iranian revolution and the Iraq-Iran war, frequently giving interviews as an Iraqi and head of that organization to Iranian and non-Iranian media. Ayatollah Khamenei appointed him as the head of the judiciary on August 14, 1999. Reformist representatives in the sixth parliament published his birth certificate, stating he was born in Najaf, Iraq, and a non-Iranian cannot be the head of one of the three branches of Iran. Under pressure from Ayatollah Khamenei, this issue was silenced, and he was appointed for another five years as head of the judiciary. On March 23, 2011, Ayatollah Khamenei appointed Shahroudi as the head of a new body called the "High Council for Resolving Disputes and Regulating Relations between the Three Branches of Government." In addition to the aforementioned positions, Shahroudi is now a member and vice president of the Assembly of Experts, a member and vice president of the Expediency Discernment Council, a member of the Society of Teachers of Qom Seminary, and one of the jurists of the Guardian Council. He has declared his religious authority and is preparing for succession to Ayatollah Khamenei. However, his non-Iranian status is one factor that could create problems for him. Another factor is the financial corruption that the head of the Legal and Judicial Commission of the sixth parliament has alluded to. The rumors about the economic activities of his children were so numerous that he had to officially deny them on January 23, 2012. However, the appointment of Mohammad Sharif Malekzadeh, a close associate of Ahmadinejad, as Shahroudi's executive advisor also stirred a lot of controversy. To the extent that Sadegh Larijani also said that this corruption suspect, who has received leniency from the system, why has he received "mushroom-like" appointments from both Shahroudi and Ahmadinejad simultaneously? According to Article 115 of the Constitution, the president must be "of Iranian origin," but Article 109 of the Constitution concerning the "conditions and qualities of the leader" lacks the condition of "Iranian origin." Second) Sadegh Ardeshir Larijani: He is the son of Ayatollah Haj Mirza Hashem Amoli - a religious authority from Najaf - and was born in 1960 in Najaf, Iraq. He studied jurisprudence and philosophy in the Qom seminary and is familiar with Western philosophy. He has translated books on contemporary ethics and religion and ethics from English to Persian. Ayatollah Khamenei appointed him as one of the jurists of the Guardian Council on April 14, 2001. Given that he was 41 years old at that time, this was considered a completely unusual practice. Khamenei appointed him as the head of the judiciary on August 15, 2009. On August 14, 2014, he was again appointed as the head of the judiciary. His potential for succession is significant due to his close ties with Khamenei and his established position within the system.