The Future of Moscow-Tehran Relations in the Perspective of President Pezeshkian

Russian officials state that determining Iran's foreign policy priorities is the responsibility of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, not the President, and believe that relations between Moscow and Tehran will continue to expand. However, Russian experts believe that if Tehran seeks more engagement with the West, it may have to reassess its relations with Moscow. Key factors that have transformed Moscow-Tehran relations, especially in the past two years, include alignment in anti-Western sentiment, cooperation to circumvent sanctions, and Iran's military support for Russia during the war against Ukraine. Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, expressed hope in a congratulatory message to Masoud Pezeshkian on July 6 that his presidency would lead to the development of constructive cooperation for the benefit of both nations and strengthen regional security and stability. Three years ago, Putin had congratulated Ebrahim Raisi even before the official election results were announced. While three years ago, Russian media welcomed Ebrahim Raisi's election as the 'best option' and predicted that enhancing relations with Russia would be a priority for the thirteenth government in Iran, the prevailing opinion now is that relations with Moscow will remain important for Tehran, but reviving relations with the West may take precedence. According to Izvestia, 'If the new government in Iran takes steps to revive relations with the West, it cannot move towards both the US and Europe and towards Russia, which has its relations with the West at the lowest historical level.' Ebrahim Raisi met with Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin in mid-December 2023. According to an analysis by Vedomosti, 'The West may ask Tehran to cease cooperation with Moscow, especially regarding the supply of Iranian weapons to Russia during the war against Ukraine, but Iran will likely seek a balance and not put all its eggs in one basket.' Alexander Mariasov, a former Russian ambassador to Iran, expressed confidence in an interview with RIA Novosti that 'the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic is not willing to accept Western demands to curb the nuclear program, respect human rights, or refrain from strengthening proxy forces in the Middle East, nor will he allow the Iranian government to do so.' Therefore, this Russian expert believes that 'the new Iranian government will continue to develop relations with its long-standing friends, primarily China and Russia.' Since the late 1980s, the Islamic Republic has turned towards the Soviet Union, the first country to recognize Iran, to strengthen its position against the US, despite insisting on a 'neither East nor West' approach. However, relations between Russia and Iran have not been without problems; Iran's efforts to create a logistics network in the Caucasus and Central Asia and enhance its regional position have caused dissatisfaction in the Kremlin. Conversely, the prolonged completion of the Bushehr nuclear power plant and the delivery of S-300 missile defense systems are recorded in Iranian memory as Russia's broken promises. Even amid unprecedented cooperation to support Bashar al-Assad in Syria, disagreements persisted; one only needs to recall Moscow's blindness to Israeli attacks against Iranian forces in Syria or the prohibition of Russian fighter jets from using Iranian military bases. However, the onset of Russia's war against Ukraine, which received explicit support from the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, and Tehran's assistance to Moscow in circumventing Western sanctions—especially the supply of suicide drones and other military equipment needed by the Russian army in Ukraine—has led the Kremlin to view Iran, for the first time, as a potential partner and ally. This shift in the Russian government's perspective, alongside the Raisi administration's efforts to elevate relations with Moscow, has completely transformed the two countries' relations. Some Russian experts have expressed concern that the comprehensive cooperation agreement between Russia and Iran may fall victim to recent changes in Iran's domestic policy. Recently, conflicting reports about this document have emerged; some Russian officials have stated they are waiting to receive the final version from Iran and that 'the Iranian side still needs to go through some necessary steps.' At the same time, some have emphasized that this document is ready for signing. According to the Iranian ambassador to Russia, if the Iranian president had not died in a plane crash, this agreement would likely have been signed by now. The first comprehensive treaty between Russia and Iran was signed in 2000 and could be renewed indefinitely every five years. However, at its 20th anniversary, Hassan Rouhani's government requested an update to this document; subsequently, the Raisi administration declared strategic relations with China and Russia as its international priorities. Following the signing of a long-term cooperation document with China, the drafting of a similar document with Russia began, but its coordination has taken much longer than initially expected. Many experts believe that the signing of this document will not eliminate multiple obstacles in Russia-Iran cooperation, just as the signing of the comprehensive cooperation agreement with China has not yet led to a fundamental transformation in Tehran-Beijing relations.