The Gamble of Iran's Attack on Pakistan; Kamran Bokhari: The Aim Was to Send a Message to Washington

Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran announced on Monday that their ambassadors would return to their posts by the end of this week. This latest sign of de-escalation comes nearly a week after Iran attacked alleged terrorist targets inside Pakistan, prompting Islamabad to respond with counterattacks against alleged terrorist hideouts across the border. At least 12 civilians were killed in these attacks, 10 in Iran and 2 in Pakistan. Alireza Marhamati, the deputy governor of Sistan and Baluchestan province, claimed that 'Pakistani' individuals were killed in Pakistan's attack on Iran. Amid unprecedented tensions, Islamabad recalled its ambassador from Tehran last Wednesday and told the Iranian ambassador, who was visiting his country, not to return. Islamabad also suspended all high-level visits between the two countries. A press statement from the foreign ministries of both countries on Monday stated that Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, the Iranian foreign minister, will visit Pakistan on January 29 (February 9) at the invitation of his Pakistani counterpart Jalil Abbas Jilani. Senior diplomats from both countries agreed on Friday during a phone call to de-escalate and restore full diplomatic relations. Analysts at Voice of America say that while repairing the strained relations between the two countries is necessary and welcomed, Iran's illegal attack on Pakistan may have opened a 'Pandora's box' in the region. Iran has stated that it targeted the hideouts of the Sunni separatist group 'Jaish al-Adl' on Pakistani soil. Additionally, see: Other names of the group Jundallah, including 'Jaish al-Adl', have been added to the U.S. list of terrorist organizations. Anti-government insurgents targeting Pakistan and Iran have been active along the 900-kilometer border for years, often carrying out deadly attacks against security forces. The terrorist threat in the region has also expanded with the targeting of Shia Muslims in both countries by the Sunni extremist terrorist group 'Islamic State' or ISIS. This group claimed responsibility for two explosions at a ceremony near the grave of Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The explosions in the city of Kerman in southeastern Iran left dozens dead. While Pakistan acknowledges the presence of ISIS in its territory, the group has a larger and more organized structure in Afghanistan. Kamran Bokhari, a security expert based in Washington, told Voice of America that Iran's attacks are not necessarily a response to rising terrorism but are aimed at sending a message to Washington in the context of the bloody war between Israel and Hamas. According to Bokhari, a senior director of the Eurasia security and welfare section at Newsline Center, 'They [the existence of militant hideouts in Pakistan] provided Iran with an excuse to do something different, which is essentially to telegraph to the United States that, look, we know you are talking about a direct confrontation with us. But if you do that, we have the capability to further escalate this war.' Bokhari believes Tehran chose Pakistan because it is a U.S. ally but is mired in economic, political, and security crises, making it less likely to enter into a broad confrontation. Pakistan's counterattack was the first time Iran faced a direct attack since the end of the Iran-Iraq War. While the Biden administration condemned Iran's actions, Bokhari thinks that those in Washington who favor direct confrontation with Tehran may say, 'We have never attacked inside Iran. Now that the Pakistanis have done this, this is a precedent.' Syed Mohammad Ali, a security expert based in Islamabad, told Voice of America that while Pakistan and Iran were able to quickly de-escalate, any other country intending to attack Iran should not expect a similar outcome. Ali stated that if Pakistan's attack 'even gives ideas to some other countries, in my opinion, they should consider Iran's potential response options based on their bilateral history and their geostrategic convergence or divergence.' While Tehran and Islamabad strive to normalize relations, some are concerned that sectarian groups may be exploited as pressure tools. Pakistan has a history of sectarian violence, with armed Sunni and Shia groups clashing with Saudi financial backing in the 1990s. Targeted sectarian killings still occur. Pakistani officials claimed on Sunday that they had arrested a 'terrorist trained by a foreign country.' Officials stated that he was supported by a 'neighboring country' and linked him to the Zainabiyoun Brigade, a militia group supported by Iran. Ayesha Siddiqa, a military affairs expert and senior fellow at King's College London, said, 'Pakistan is both cautious not to name Iran and to talk about factors that may be linked to Iran.' Siddiqa stated that Pakistan and Iran have no choice but to continue de-escalation to avoid potential sectarian conflicts. On Monday, the media wing of the Pakistan Armed Forces announced that the army had killed seven 'terrorists' in operations near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in Balochistan. The statement did not specify which group the killed militants belonged to. So far, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, has not commented on Pakistan's attack on Iran. Ebrahim Raisi, the Islamic Republic's president, visited Firuzkuh near Tehran hours after the attack. Reactions to the release of a 'fake' image: agents of the Islamic Republic have neither the art of fighting nor Photoshop. The UK travel advisory to its citizens: the possibility of 'further missile and drone attacks' in Sistan and Baluchestan exists. The Iraqi foreign minister discussed the Islamic Republic's attacks with the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Pakistan: We do not intend to escalate differences with Iran; discussions between the foreign ministers of the two countries.