The Government of Behdar-Medicalian Proposes a "200%" Increase in Iran's Military Budget

The government of Masoud Behdar-Medicalian has proposed a "200%" increase in Iran's military budget in its first budget bill since taking office. Fatemeh Mohajerani, the government spokesperson, stated on Tuesday, November 8, that the "doubling of the budget is aimed at strengthening the country's defense capabilities." The spokesperson did not mention the total amount allocated for the military budget for the year 1404 in the Iranian calendar. The military budget included in the budget bill presented to the parliament by various governments in Iran is the officially announced amount allocated to the armed forces and the Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Support, excluding secret budget items. The announced military budget is divided among the army, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Basij, and various affiliated organizations, with assessments indicating that a significant portion of the military budget is allocated to the IRGC due to its dominant position and multiple branches, such as the Quds Force. The military budget for the year 1403 was officially announced to be around 470 trillion tomans, which accounted for one-sixth of the total budget for that year. However, the parliament later approved a request from President Ebrahim Raisi to allocate an additional 132 trillion tomans of crude oil to the armed forces to assist their budget through sales. Iran appears to be the only government in the world that officially allows its armed forces to play a role in selling national resources and directly own a portion of them. The initial amount of approximately 470 trillion tomans for the armed forces in the current year's budget was divided as follows: 132 trillion tomans for the social security of the armed forces (insurance and retirement), 125 trillion tomans for the IRGC, about 67 trillion tomans for the army, over 87 trillion tomans for law enforcement forces, and just over 48 trillion tomans for the Ministry of Defense. At least "half of Iran's oil revenues" are spent on the armed forces. The Tehran government's intention to double Iran's military budget comes amid escalating tensions between the Islamic Republic and Israel, marked by two waves of mutual missile attacks. The future of this crisis remains uncertain, given the wide range of statements from officials in Tehran and Jerusalem against each other in recent days, with claims of "readiness" for "escalating reciprocal attacks, harder and less predictable," creating a darker outlook for the coming year in Iran and the region. On November 5, Israel, in response to a missile attack from Iran on September 30, which was the second extensive missile attack directly from Iranian territory against Israel in the history of the two countries, conducted an air operation called "Days of Response" with over a hundred advanced fighter jets, targeting "completely military" objectives in various locations in Iran. Iran stated that the Israeli operation caused "limited damage" to military centers in three provinces. Both sides have refrained from detailing this attack and the damages incurred, but international news agencies have identified damage to sites in Parchin, Khajir, and other locations in Iran based on satellite images. After this operation, both sides continued to emphasize that they have more military plans and options available should further actions arise from the opposing government. In the absence of financial transparency and the presence of multiple military institutions in Iran, various international financial institutions, such as the SIPRI Institute in Sweden for "Peace Research" or the International Monetary Fund in Washington, have always sought to approximate the true figure for Iran's military budget. These global institutions have never succeeded in providing a definitive report in this regard. For example, SIPRI estimated that Iran's military budget in 2023 was 10.3 billion dollars. According to analyses by Radio Farda's data mining group, the military budget for the year 1403, based on an exchange rate of 28,500 tomans, was equivalent to 25.3 billion dollars, indicating a 21% increase compared to the previous year. The data mining group also assessed that 47% of the country's oil export resources are to be directly allocated to the armed forces, similar to the current year. This amount is equivalent to 561 trillion tomans, while the government's share of these resources is only 43% or 509 trillion tomans. Besides the oil resources directly allocated to the armed forces for sale, the National Development Fund has always been considered a readily available source for the government to meet urgent needs to avoid falling into severe economic and military crises. The Raisi government, during its three years in office and the Behdar-Medicalian government in the few months it has been in power, has repeatedly emphasized receiving funds from the National Development Fund based on the leader's agreement and expressed gratitude for the "grace" of Ali Khamenei. The Behdar-Medicalian government stated that it inherited a relatively empty treasury from its slain predecessor and still lacks funds to pay wheat farmers and meet the demands of the country's nurses, addressing some needs by obtaining funds from the National Development Fund. In the dire economic and living conditions of the Iranian people this solar year, marked by continued capital flight from Iran, persistent inflation, and the collapse of the stock market, evidence suggests that the Islamic Republic's government has not deviated from using secret budgets for its security operations abroad, especially in supporting its proxy groups militarily and financially.