The Horn of Africa is Becoming 'Drier'

Researchers say that as the Earth warms, the Horn of Africa will also become drier. According to Reuters, previous theories predicted that with rising temperatures, the Horn of Africa would experience more rainfall. Recent research shows that the East African region, including Somalia, Djibouti, and Ethiopia, has been drying unusually fast over the past 100 years. This research was conducted by examining sediments from the Gulf of Aden. Jessica Tierney, the lead author of the report and a professor at the University of Arizona, stated that the research team is confident that this dryness is directly related to increased greenhouse gas emissions and will continue to worsen as the climate warms: "If the region dries out, which we believe it will, food security and agricultural models will be completely transformed." Peter Domokos, another author of the report and a professor at Columbia University, also noted that "many charitable groups are expecting a greener and wetter future for the Horn of Africa, but new findings indicate that the opposite is happening." Residents of the Horn of Africa have struggled with political instability, violence, recurring droughts, and hunger in recent decades. These conditions have displaced many people from their homes and fueled piracy. "Many charitable groups are expecting a greener and wetter future for the Horn of Africa, but new findings indicate that the opposite is happening." In 2001, scientists managed to sample ocean floor sediments in the area despite the risk of pirate attacks. By using isotopes obtained from plant waxes in samples buried one meter deep in ocean sediments, they were able to compare the rate of drying in the region over the past 2000 years. The drier the region, the more heavy hydrogen isotopes the plant waxes will contain. Scientists say that new findings indicate that the amount of heavy hydrogen in sediments has increased over the past century and after the wet period of the Little Ice Age (1450-1850). Tierney stated that "paleoclimatic records over the past 2000 years show that whenever the Earth has been warmer, the Horn of Africa has also been drier, and whenever the Earth has been cooler, the Horn of Africa has seen wetter days." Previous climate models predicted that the Horn of Africa would see increased moisture due to higher rainfall during the short rainy season from September to November. However, this new research published in 'Science Advances' indicates that as rainfall decreases during the long rainy season from March to May, the effects of increased rainfall during the short rainy season will be negated, posing a greater challenge for agriculture in the region. Tierney believes that new findings could significantly help in creating a more accurate picture of the Earth's long-term climate conditions. According to her, further research on rainfall changes in both rainy seasons in the Horn of Africa and the relationship between drought and greenhouse gas emissions is necessary.