The House Arrest Reaches 2000 Days

Two thousand nights and days have passed since the house arrest of the leaders of the Green Movement. There is no difference between 2000 and 1999 except for another 24 hours of hardship and 1440 more minutes for those under pressure and in confinement. The arrival of the house arrest of Mousavi, Karroubi, and Rahnavard at day 2000 is, of course, another reason to reflect on some points and questions related to the house arrest of the leaders of the Green Movement. Why has the house arrest stretched to 2000 days? The house arrest of Mousavi, Karroubi, and Rahnavard has reached day 2000 following their last call (February 14, 2011) because the outcome of the forces supporting and opposing the house arrest has had such a consequence. The result of the challenge and struggle between the two fronts is the continuation of imprisonment in line with the desires of the repressive and authoritarian apparatus. The pressure and demands of the Greens and active reformists in society, alongside the moderates and pragmatic conservatives present in the political power structure, as well as the demands of independent international institutions and protests from some foreign governments, have still not been able to overcome the determination and project of the central power. "Politics," where it connects with the concept of "power," manifests such realities — however bitter they may be. Ayatollah Khamenei can confidently be considered the most influential person regarding the house arrest of the leaders of the Green Movement. While he is in contact with the security forces ruling over the IRGC, he remains the final decision-maker. In his latest explicit position regarding the house arrest of the leaders of the Green Movement, a few weeks ago he stated, "My positions regarding the sedition of 2009 are completely clear, and I am sensitive about this issue; the criterion is the lack of support for those who were the leaders of the sedition or exploited it and have not yet declared their disavowal." The leader of the Islamic Republic is openly — and still — angry about Mousavi and Karroubi standing against his judgment in the 2009 elections. The two protesting candidates did not submit to the opinion of the Guardian Jurist; an unprecedented event in the Islamic Republic. The first person of the regime has not only taken a vindictive approach towards the leaders of the Green Movement but is also fearful of the political-social consequences of lifting the house arrest due to his awareness of his lack of social backing and absence of democratic legitimacy. Ironically, Khamenei has tried to diminish the political-social impact of Mousavi and Karroubi through their house arrest; yet paradoxically, he continues to keep them as the most important leaders of the democracy-seeking movement in Iran, recognized and noteworthy. Do the imprisoned have no role in the continuation of their imprisonment? Undoubtedly, one reason for the house arrest stretching to 2000 days is the steadfastness of the leaders of the Green Movement and their emphasis on their previous positions. Admitting mistakes and asking for repentance is one thing; it is enough for Mousavi, Karroubi, and Rahnavard to declare that they will remain silent if the house arrest is lifted. However, they have not done so thus far, and consequently, the house arrest has also stretched. Although the leaders of the Green Movement participated in the non-violent reformist action in the elections of February 2016 to demonstrate their belief in reformist action, they have not retreated from their fundamental protest. A significant letter from Mehdi Karroubi to the President in May is an important testimony to this claim. Karroubi, while criticizing "self-centeredness, ambition, and love for power" in the political authority, reiterated his previous positions and addressed Rouhani, stating: "I neither ask you to lift the house arrest nor do I consider this matter to be in your hands; however, I ask you, based on the duty that the Constitution and the people have placed upon you, to demand from the oppressive regime to hold my public trial, according to Article 168 of the Constitution, even with the composition desired by the power holders, so that, with God's help and together with my lawyers, I can present the indictment, evidence of the electoral fraud of 2005, the engineering of the 2009 presidential election, and what happened to the children of this country in legal and illegal detention centers to the public." Has Rouhani pursued lifting the house arrest? The house arrest of the leaders of the Green Movement has reached its 2000th day while Rouhani has also entered the last year of his presidency. The government spokesman in spring 2014 announced the "efforts" of the executive branch to lift the house arrest. He also emphasized in autumn 2015 that the government would take "effective necessary actions" in this regard. However, in February of last year, he acknowledged that "we have made efforts to the best of our ability and in some cases even more than that, but ultimately we are not the final decision-makers in this matter." This report may have been the final blow to the expectations that the supporters of the Green Movement had from the 2013 election campaign. It can be said with certainty that for the Purple government, lifting the house arrest of the leaders of the Green Movement has not been a priority. Rouhani focused on the JCPOA, deepening relations with the West, and improving the critical economy. It can be claimed that Rouhani has not pursued lifting the house arrest so that the basis of his priorities is not overshadowed by the freedom of the leaders of the Green Movement and to prevent society from potentially facing some political challenges. The emphasis on lifting the house arrest remains a topic that can be used for electoral propaganda by Rouhani, especially since it seems unlikely that other candidates in the 2017 elections will mention it at all. In July 2009, Mir Hossein Mousavi stated, "I am not willing to abandon my stance in the shadow of the Green Tree for the sake of personal interests and fear of threats, to defend the rights of the people of Iran, which today has been watered by the unjustly spilled blood of the youth of this country, even for a moment." In autumn 2013, Mousavi's daughters reported that he rejected the regime's demand for repentance, stating: "They know me, and they know that when I reach a conclusion, white is white; they cannot force me under any pressure to say that it is black." With such positions from Mousavi, and similar views expressed by his wife Rahnavard and Karroubi, the continuation of the house arrest is presumed; especially since autocracy, despotism, and repression in Iran (up to the extent of mass executions of opponents) continue; the dangerous conditions and security crisis in the region are ongoing; the leader of the Islamic Republic is aware of his lack of democratic backing; the economic crisis and recession and the hardships of livelihood have affected the priorities of the cultural middle class and even a range of civil society activists; and there is no tangible and coherent demand force for lifting the house arrest that is active and visible in the scene. All this, while it means the house arrest will continue until further notice, does not mean that it will be determined and finalized. "Turning points" in history suddenly arrive, and in today's Iranian society, which is characterized by a movement for change and resistance against repression and despotism, hopes for those demanding the lifting of the house arrest are not few. This statement may reflect the other side of Zahra Rahnavard's new assessment; she, in a statement that includes steadfastness and hope for the future, announced from within her house arrest: "Two thousand days have passed since the house arrest, but if two thousand years pass, I have no wish other than the pride of the country and freedom and justice for the people."