The Houthis in Yemen

The Importance of Yemen and the Emergence of the Houthis - The Houthis are a group of Yemeni rebels who have been in revolt against the regime of Abdullah Saleh since 2004, when Yemen was under his rule, opposing his regime's ties to the United States. Unlike the majority Sunni population of Yemen, the Houthis are connected to the Zaydi branch of Shia Islam and are said to receive political and military support from the Islamic Republic of Iran. For the United States, Yemen is at the center of the fight against Al-Qaeda jihadists and has received significant attention in recent years. Evidence supporting this claim includes the fact that one of the terrorists who hid explosives in his shoes was trained in Yemen, and another bomb that was hidden in a printer cartridge was sent from Yemen to the U.S. via mail. Additionally, Anwar al-Awlaki, a senior Al-Qaeda member of Yemeni descent born in the U.S. who was targeted by a U.S. drone strike in 2011, had connections with many jihadists in Yemen. Yemen serves as a haven and hideout for Al-Qaeda, and some regional observers believe that Al-Qaeda's branch in Yemen is rapidly evolving and may engage in a series of extensive local attacks. The origins of the Houthis as a rebel group date back to the 1990s. The Houthis, also known as 'Ansar Allah,' were once known in some sources as a group advocating for peace and tolerance of opposing views. However, they quickly transformed into a militia group and experienced internal divisions following their formation. With one of the factions radicalizing and calling for a return to Shia Islamic values and the dominance of Shia standards, the internal situation in Yemen gradually and severely changed. At that time, demonstrations by Houthi supporters in Yemeni mosques were seen by Ali Abdullah Saleh as a challenge to his government, leading to the arrest of some group members at his orders, and ultimately, the leader of the group, Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi, was asked to prevent demonstrations by the group's followers in Yemen's mosques to maintain the tranquility of worshippers. The emergence of Al-Qaeda's Yemen branch - Following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, Hussein Badreddin sought to organize opposition to the occupation through mobilizing and inciting the people. By raising public anger against this occupation, al-Houthi was killed in 2004 during a clash with Abdullah Saleh's forces sent to arrest him in the Saada province (located in northwestern Yemen, near the Saudi border). Supporters of Hussein Badreddin primarily engaged in internal armed operations in the Saada region, which continued until 2010. In response to these actions, Saudi Arabia conducted a limited war against the Houthis in 2009, mainly in border areas with Yemen. Eventually, in 2010, a ceasefire was declared between the parties, and the war seemingly ended. In 2012, coinciding with the Arab Spring movements in other Middle Eastern countries, Yemen's governance was peacefully transferred from Ali Abdullah Saleh to then Vice President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, with the guidance of other countries, including Saudi Arabia, and Western support. However, this peaceful transfer led to an increase in the power of the Houthis and their greater participation in political movements, which conversely strengthened Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Houthi supporters hoped to end governmental corruption and restore stability to Yemen, but instead, instability and military and sectarian clashes increased. In 2014, the Shia Houthi rebels organized anew and took control of Sana'a, the capital of Yemen, promising fundamental changes in Yemen's political landscape. The occupation of Sana'a faced hostile reactions from Al-Qaeda, leading to daily confrontations between the Houthis and Al-Qaeda. In one such clash, at least 40 people were killed in a single day. On the other hand, the Houthis hold the government responsible for the deaths of hundreds and the displacement of about 80,000 innocent Yemenis. A Country in Decline - Yemen is one of the poorest countries in the Middle East, and the government's ability to address and resolve social and economic issues is diminishing daily, to the extent that according to statistics published by the Peace Foundation at the end of 2014, Yemen was considered the eighth most fragile and vulnerable country in the world. Interestingly, until early last summer, the demands of the Houthis were still within the framework of optimal governance and system reform. The Houthis sought equality before the law and equal access to power. For instance, the group's leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, demanded the resumption of fuel subsidies that had been halted a month prior. He gave the government a few days' deadline and threatened to take further actions if the subsidies were not resumed. Currently, Yemen ranks second after Pakistan in receiving cash assistance from the United States, amounting to about $300 million per year. The Leader of the Houthis - Abdul-Malik al-Houthi is 33 years old and is said to receive support from Iran. Two of his brothers were killed in the 2004 conflicts by Yemeni army forces, and he has led the Houthi movement, also known as Ansar Allah, since 2009. Iran's official position regarding the Houthi movement is not entirely clear. At least until 2009, the newly formed Houthi leader implicitly requested that Iran not support Abdullah Saleh's government and pay attention to the 'oppression' of the Houthis. Some Iranian government-affiliated sources believe that Yemen's geostrategic situation and the position of the Zaydis in that country do not allow Iran to establish relations with them. However, it is known that geographical connection is not a necessary condition for supporting a group; for example, there is no geographical connection between Iran and Hamas in Palestine, yet public support exists. The United States supports President Mansur Hadi, and Yemen is considered one of America's allies in the fight against terrorism. Meanwhile, the Houthis are dissatisfied with Mansur Hadi's policies and strongly criticize the fact that Hadi's government allows U.S. drones to bomb Al-Qaeda hideouts in Yemen. Interestingly, the Houthis themselves are not immune from Al-Qaeda attacks. Yemen is one of Al-Qaeda's major bases in the region, and it is said that at least a thousand active Al-Qaeda members from eleven Arab and non-Arab countries are present there. Since the summer of 2014, the tone and actions of the rebels have changed. Abdul-Malik al-Houthi has labeled the Yemeni government a puppet of the West and the U.S., demanding political participation for the Houthis in Yemen's parliament and government. Following last summer's protests, Mansur Hadi invited the Houthis to dialogue and form a national unity government. Since then, the Yemeni president appointed two Houthis as his advisors, but one of the advisors resigned, stating that his proposals and advice had not been implemented. President Mansur Hadi believed that problems could be resolved through prudence and that the path he had chosen would lead to national reconciliation. At the same time, he was concerned about foreign intervention. Yemen has repeatedly accused Iran of supporting the Shia Houthis. Deterioration of the Situation - Recent events continue the rise of the Houthis and their confrontation with Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula on one side and the official Yemeni government on the other. Following the takeover of Sana'a and the Houthis' advance towards southern Yemen, potentially dangerous developments have occurred. Recent insecurities led to the abduction of Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak, the head of the presidential staff and the national dialogue committee. Following that, the situation escalated to the point of besieging the residence of President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. Such conditions are the most suitable time for terrorist operations, and if major terrorist actions had occurred, they could have had regrettable consequences. The UN Security Council, aware of the sensitivity and critical nature of developments in Yemen, immediately convened and called for an immediate cessation of hostilities. Subsequently, according to news reports, the president reached an agreement with the rebels, and it is said that after this agreement, the rebels returned control of the president's residence to its guards. However, this short-term understanding eventually led to Mansur Hadi succumbing to Houthi pressure and submitting his resignation, resulting in the fall of the Yemeni government. The simultaneous resignation of President Mansur Hadi and Prime Minister Khaled Bahah signifies the victory of the Houthis in Yemen and their control over significant portions of Yemeni territory, which they have long held under control. With Mansur Hadi's resignation, chaos returned to the streets, and the rebels took control of various city points, chanting 'Death to America' and 'Death to Israel.' These chants did not go unanswered, as another group of Yemenis gathered at universities and protested against the Houthis. This incident itself indicates the depth of the divisions and the impending future conflicts. Will Yemen Fragment? - It is worth remembering that until 1990, North Yemen was separate from South Yemen. At that time, Mikhail Gorbachev, the leader of the Soviet Union, decided to withdraw support for Yemen, similar to some Eastern European countries. Almost simultaneously, oil was discovered in both Yemens. The discovery of oil sustained the existence of the two Yemens, and while East and West Germany united with international fanfare and joy, the unification of North and South Yemen occurred quietly. Currently, one of the possibilities that may arise again is the fragmentation of Yemen, which is no longer clear even based on the former North and South map, as the areas controlled by various groups have changed. However, the fragmentation of Yemen would undoubtedly be an unfortunate phenomenon for the region. A few hours after the resignation of the Yemeni president, his major supporter in the neighborhood, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, passed away. With the loss of two allies in a short span and in a vulnerable region, the Yemen puzzle has become a complex knot that seems difficult to untangle under current conditions. The resignation of the president and prime minister of Yemen expands the scope of the Houthis' expectations and demands, and given that the capital is under their control, the possibility of controlling the entire country and, if unsuccessful, the possibility of Yemen's fragmentation exists. If the entire country falls under the control of the Shia Houthis, Iran's influence in this part of the Middle East will increase, disrupting the balance of power in the region. On the one hand, Saudi Arabia cannot tolerate such influence on its borders, and on the other hand, Al-Qaeda considers Iran's influence contrary to its objectives and will take severe actions to eliminate both Iran's influence and the Houthis as Iran's regional agents. In such circumstances, it is natural that it could lead to mass killings and bloodshed. If part of Yemen controlled by the Houthis fragments, there is a possibility that another part could be controlled by Al-Qaeda in Yemen. Especially since since the occupation of parts of Iraq and Syria by the group known as the Islamic Caliphate, Al-Qaeda has also sought to give its existence a territorial dimension. The fragmentation of Yemen creates an appropriate ground for Al-Qaeda to establish a government similar to the Taliban in Afghanistan in other parts of Yemen. The immediate result of this fragmentation would be a war between the two Yemens, and such a development would certainly disrupt the strategic configuration of the region, creating new threats for the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and even Iran. With the new king of Saudi Arabia, at least for a while, the situation may spiral out of control, and it is even possible that due to the health condition of King Salman bin Abdulaziz, another replacement may be on the horizon, which would itself prolong the turmoil. On the other hand, with the continued disputes between the Houthis and the government, part of Yemen's limited capacity will be consumed in disputes with the Shia Houthis, neglecting the control of Al-Qaeda. In such conditions, the possibility of foreign militias entering Yemen and strengthening Al-Qaeda on one side and empowering the Houthis through regional powers could ignite the flames of civil war, the end of which cannot be predicted. This development, in turn, would transform Yemen into another failed and dysfunctional state like Somalia, adding another unsolvable problem to regional and global security.