The Importance of This Round of the Assembly of Experts Elections

On March 7 of this year, alongside the parliamentary elections, the elections for the Assembly of Experts will also be held. The fifth round of this assembly is believed by many to be one of the most important electoral periods in the history of the Assembly of Experts. This assembly, according to law, has the authority to appoint and dismiss the highest seat of power in Iran, which Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, described as the 'most important pillar of the system.' Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the leader of Iran, also recently referred to the Assembly of Experts as an important assembly that, according to him, 'must choose a leader who can stand against the onslaught of enemies.' 'The Assembly of Experts is supposed to choose a leader. Is this a joke? The day when the current leader is no longer in the world or there is no leader, they must choose a leader. Who will they choose? Will they choose someone who stands against the onslaught of enemies, trusts in God, shows courage, and continues the path of the Imam?' A brief review of the history of the Assembly of Experts, which began its first term in 1983, highlights the appointment of Hossein Ali Montazeri as the deputy leader in 1985 as one of the most important decisions of this assembly. The deputy who never reached the position of leadership in Iran was under house arrest for six years and eventually passed away at the age of 87. Ahmad Montazeri, the son of Ayatollah Montazeri, recounts the events of that period: 'When the Assembly of Experts elected him, the majority of the nation had made such a choice and they also raised it in their slogans and gatherings. The Assembly of Experts only confirmed the people's message. In 1989, Ayatollah Montazeri did not resign. Various events occurred, and a group that wanted future leadership in their hands, which was somewhat unsuccessful, changed Imam Khomeini's opinion, and Ayatollah Khomeini dismissed Ayatollah Montazeri. The next day, on April 7, 1989, Ayatollah Montazeri wrote a letter stating that he had never sought the presidency and does not seek it, and Imam Khomeini accepted this, which the newspapers interpreted as a resignation.' The appointment of Ali Khamenei as the leader of Iran in 1989 was the second key decision of the Assembly of Experts at a time when the leader of Iran had passed away. However, for several months now, discussions about determining the leadership position in Iran after Ali Khamenei have been circulating, including discussions about appointing an individual or council for leadership in Iran. The formation of a council for leadership in Iran has long been opposed by many figures of the Islamic Republic, and it was recently raised again by Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the head of the Expediency Discernment Council. The option of a council leadership was removed from Article 107 during the constitutional revision in 1989, but the temporary leadership council still exists in Article 111 of the Iranian Constitution. This article, which Mohsen Kadivar, a theology and jurisprudence researcher and professor at Duke University in North Carolina, explains: 'When the leader dies, resigns, or is dismissed, the Assembly of Experts is obliged to determine and introduce a new leader as soon as possible. Until the new leader is introduced, a temporary council composed of the President, the head of the judiciary, and one of the jurists of the Guardian Council temporarily assumes the duties of leadership. This is a temporary council and has all the powers of leadership. Therefore, Hashemi Rafsanjani's remarks are legal. However, how likely it is to happen, meaning that the next leader will not be chosen in a three or four-hour meeting like in 1989, remains to be seen based on future conditions.' On the other hand, the recent statements of some Iranian officials have heated up the atmosphere for this round of the Assembly of Experts elections. From Ahmad Jannati, the Secretary of the Guardian Council, who questioned the knowledge and jurisprudence of some of the candidates registered for the Assembly of Experts: 'For example, in the Assembly of Experts, all those who registered, seven or eight hundred people, do they all consider themselves jurists? Some of them cannot correctly read an Arabic phrase if you give it to them.' To Ali Khamenei, the leader of Iran, who warned against the entry of elements he called 'infiltrators' into this assembly: 'If we assume that an infiltrator enters the Islamic Consultative Assembly or the Assembly of Experts or infiltrates other pillars of the system, it would erode the foundations from within like a termite and cause it to collapse.' This assembly is expected to be in power until 2024, and if Ali Khamenei is alive, he will be 85 years old. Mohsen Kadivar states in this regard: 'This period is more important. For two reasons. One is that the age of leadership in this period is between 77 and 85 years. The second point is that the leader had surgery some time ago, and rumors about his illness are widely circulated; hypothetically, if this is true, given this age, it can be said that this round of the Assembly of Experts could be decisive regarding future leadership.' The issue of the current leader's age, along with unspecified news about his potential illness, is believed by some analysts to have a significant impact on the political alignments of this election period. This issue has reportedly led to the alignment of figures such as Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani on one side, and figures like Ahmad Jannati, the Secretary of the Guardian Council, and Mohammad Yazdi, the current head of the Assembly of Experts, on the other side. Maziar Mahdavi Azad, a political analyst in Germany, states: 'All evidence suggests that Hashemi Rafsanjani has undertaken the largest historical mobilization since 1997 to change the future composition of the Assembly of Experts. However, on the opposing side of Hashemi, a significant uproar has occurred, and severe disagreements have arisen. This alignment essentially formed a pivot that stands against the two Ahmad and two Yazdi, namely Ahmad Jannati and Ahmad Khatami, Mesbah Yazdi and Mohammad Yazdi. All statements from the extreme right and their warnings about the 1994 sedition and the greater sedition indicate unprecedented reactions to the discussion of a council leadership in the future, showing that the issue goes beyond a simple election. In my opinion, this Assembly of Experts and the current elections are the most decisive elections in the history of the Islamic Republic.' The specific political conditions of Iran, from the nuclear dispute and the JCPOA to the Syrian crisis and regional tensions, further amplify the significance of this round of the Assembly of Experts elections. Because, according to some analysts, the words and decisions of the leader of Iran are the final word in Iran's policies and positions, especially in the international arena. Mohsen Kadivar states in this regard: 'Before the revolution, decisions were made by one person, the Shah; after the revolution, decisions are also made by one person, the leader; if there is a parliament, it is the National Assembly or the Islamic Assembly, if there is the Assembly of Experts, if the president is elected by the people, these must be able to have complete independence within the scope defined by the constitution. However, if it is assumed that, for example, the president's decision remains pending until the leader approves it, then apparently this manner of conduct requires an executive deputy, not a president, requires a judicial deputy, not the head of the judiciary, requires a consultative deputy, not the National or Islamic Assembly; unfortunately, Mr. Khamenei is intervening in all matters, both minor and major, legally and sometimes illegally, more than ever, and in a way that the Islamic Consultative Assembly or the Assembly of Experts is being arranged so that they practically have neither oversight nor independence, and the country is governed by one person with absolute power.' The fifth round of the Assembly of Experts elections is set to take place on March 7 of this year; an assembly that may have the responsibility of deciding who will hold the highest political position in Iran. While Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has even urged opponents of the Islamic Republic to participate in these elections, some international organizations, including Human Rights Watch, state: 'The disqualification of several candidates has undermined the holding of a free and fair election in Iran.'