The Islamic Republic and the Light and Shadow of Britain's Exit

More than a week after the Brexit referendum and the fragile majority of the British people agreeing to leave the European Union, speculation about its implications for the Islamic Republic can be better assessed. Although the official position of the Islamic Republic, as announced by the Foreign Ministry, indicated neutrality and respect for the referendum's outcome, monitoring reactions leaves no room to deny the happiness of various factions and decision-makers within the power structure. A positive outlook on Britain's exit was not only observed in conservative media but was also explicitly welcomed by Hamid Abutalebi, an advisor to Hassan Rouhani, who considered it a unique opportunity for Iran. But is this assessment correct? A clear and precise answer to this question is not possible under current conditions. One can only analyze its positive and negative aspects. It is natural that the consequences of Britain's exit from the European Union are still unclear, surrounded by uncertainty regarding Europe's future and its relations with Britain. What is clear is that contrary to the prevailing mindset among the officials of the Islamic Republic and perhaps Iranian politicians, a crisis does not necessarily mean an unavoidable end but can also be an opportunity for growth. Britain's exit from the European Union is a blow to the union and raises doubts about its survival, but one should not be trapped by exaggerations; the factors reinforcing the European Union remain strong and have the capability to address threats through reforms. Some experts even believe that the exit of a country that has not been fully integrated with the European Union thus far presents an opportunity for the growth of this union. The negative events that occurred for the British economy the day after the referendum, if they persist and are not addressed, will then become a deterrent factor against similar actions by other EU members. The weakening of the union paradigm and the intertwining of political systems in larger collectives, along with efforts to maximize collective interests, creates a conducive environment for island-like movements, separatism, isolationism in the world, and extreme and raw nationalism. Those celebrating Britain's exit in the Iranian government overlook the fact that such approaches could, under certain conditions, encourage threats against Iran's territorial integrity and strengthen the motivations of separatists in Iran's border provinces. However, the main argument of the aforementioned supporters relies on the weakening of the European Union and creating challenges for coordinated actions, as well as the possibility of exploiting existing gaps for governments like the Islamic Republic, which align their foreign policy by confronting the West and not submitting to the international order and global legal structure. In fact, there is a perception that with Britain's exit, other countries will also move towards separation, and the European Union will be unable to make a collective decision to impose sanctions against target countries. However, it seems there is a kind of haste and naivety in this assessment. Britain has generally had one of the most challenging positions against the Islamic Republic among Western countries since the revolution. However, during the nuclear confrontation, France took a stricter stance. Therefore, Britain's liberation from the EU's obligations does not necessarily mean an expansion of relations with Iran. Britain's alignment with the United States is a far more significant factor, and the outlook for resolving past disputes must also be clear for a substantial change in Iran-Britain relations to occur, which currently does not exist. The slow pace of restoring relations during Rouhani's administration attests to this claim. The European Union is also unlikely to change its position towards the Islamic Republic in the foreseeable future. If the situation returns to pre-JCPOA conditions, the union will move towards sanctions and punitive measures. Although some EU members, such as Spain, Italy, and Austria, have a greater willingness to improve relations with Iran, their overarching interests do not allow them to deviate significantly from the coordinated positions of Europe. On the other hand, the group of Western countries, especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union, operates within a common civilizational framework and tends to adopt a unified approach in major policies. The points raised indicate that the outcome of the British referendum does not have a significant capacity for a strategic change in relations between Europe and the Islamic Republic. At the same time, it should be noted that such a perspective is influenced by a hostile foreign policy approach, which does not differentiate between the so-called hardliners and moderates in its strategic dimension. In a model that seeks a good and constructive relationship with the West within the framework of mutual interests, there is no room for expressing joy similar to Hamid Abutalebi's reaction. However, the economic consequences of this event have not only created problems for Europe and the world but also negatively impact Iran's vulnerable economy, which is caught in a chronic structural crisis. Although oil prices have not changed significantly, the likelihood of oil prices returning to previous price channels and exceeding sixty dollars seems lower than before. Britain's exit reinforces the phenomenon of recession and economic stagnation in the world, which in turn exacerbates the recession in Iran's economy. The extent of the threat of continued economic stagnation highlights the problems of reliance on oil revenues for Iran, and ignoring this warning by the government makes it more challenging to treat Iran's ailing economy and especially to implement fundamental reforms. Fluctuations in financial markets have also reminded the Islamic Republic that being distanced from national markets is an indicator of underdevelopment. The uncertain conditions and lack of clarity created by Britain's exit from the European Union have also relatively reduced the ability of European banks to trade and Western economic investment, which poses challenges for Rouhani's government and fulfilling its promises. Overall, it seems that from the perspective of national interests and a comprehensive and forward-looking view, Britain's separation and, on a broader level, the weakening and fragmentation of the European Union is not beneficial for Iran. Even for the Islamic Republic, within the framework of a negative view towards the West, this event does not carry the desired positive consequences, and it seems they are making a miscalculation regarding their welcome of it.