The Likelihood and Consequences of the Collapse of the Iranian Government: A Conference in Israel

Yuval Steinitz, a senior Israeli minister, states that currently, three fundamental factors determine the future and fate of the Islamic Republic of Iran: economic pressure, military decisiveness, and the decision made by the North Korean leader regarding negotiations with the United States. This member of the ruling Likud party presented this topic at a conference focused on Iran at an Israeli think tank. The Jerusalem Center for Public and Political Affairs, chaired by Dr. Dori Gold, former director-general of the Israeli Foreign Ministry, held a conference on Wednesday, July 10, addressing the question of whether the Islamic Republic of Iran is heading towards collapse and what the implications of such a scenario would be for the region and Israel. The conference began with a clip of Donald Trump's remarks announcing the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA, followed by scenes of intensified public protests in Iran recently, where Iranians call on the leaders of the Tehran government to take action to improve the situation of the Iranian people. Yuval Steinitz, the main speaker at the meeting, referred to the heightened economic pressures against Iran in recent times, noting that dozens of small and large international companies have preferred to leave Iran and cooperate with the U.S. economy. According to Steinitz, the decision for example, for airline companies to cut flights to Iran does not require pressure on Western governments, as these companies consider their economic interests. He emphasized that the goal includes, as stated by Brian Hook, a senior U.S. State Department official, to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero and to bring Iran to a condition where no foreign airline would carry passengers to or from Iran. This Israeli minister, who has been responsible for the 'Iran file' for years in the Strategic Ministry, also added that the economic pressure in the coming months will be an unprecedented round of sanctions against Iran, and according to him, the results of the new economic pressure will become clear within a year. Steinitz added that while we opposed the JCPOA and considered it bad and insufficient, we must acknowledge our appreciation for Barack Obama, who established severe economic pressures on Iran that had no precedent before. However, he stated that compared to the sanctions during Obama's era, new crushing pressures will soon be imposed on Iran's economy. This minister of the ruling party in Israel added that with the intensification of pressures and the collapse of Iran's economic situation, the leaders in Tehran may consider returning to the negotiating table, but there is also the possibility that they will adopt a more defiant stance. Yuval Steinitz stated that economic pressure must be accompanied by military decisiveness; a matter that was not taken seriously during Barack Obama's era, but during Donald Trump's time, Iran understands that no one is joking. He said that if Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz and ignites the region, this could lead to a serious military confrontation. The Israeli minister stated that potential military maneuvers and posturing by Iran or Iran's pursuit of a nuclear bomb could be met with a U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, and the U.S. has the capability to destroy any nuclear site, regardless of its location and irrespective of Iran's air defenses. He said the Islamic Republic of Iran must understand that the U.S. has a strong resolve in confronting Iran and therefore must change its approach. However, according to Yuval Steinitz, Iran's situation largely depends on the fate of negotiations between North Korea and the U.S.; he added that if Donald Trump's efforts for denuclearization of Pyongyang are successful in the coming months, internal pressure in Iran will increase, but if North Korea ultimately does not change, Iran's defiance will also increase, as they will tell themselves that they are no less than North Korea in terms of negotiating with the U.S. Steinitz also reminded that Israel was behind some of the pressures in 2015 on negotiating powers before reaching the JCPOA, aiming to set stricter conditions. He stated that some of our demands were not progressing with the American negotiators, and I called Laurent Fabius, the then-French Foreign Minister, to present the demands, which he raised at a critical moment in the negotiations, and after a while, Tehran had to accept them. At the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs conference, Dr. Dori Gold presented statistics on Iran's annual budget over the years to show that the Islamic Republic allocates a significant portion of its oil and gas revenues to military affairs and regional activities; because, according to him, Tehran has shown that 'instead of bread for its people, it prefers weapons,' but 'the people of Iran also understand this, and that is why they have risen up,' and in this context, intensifying pressures 'is important.' According to Gold, the Obama administration was under the impression that through the JCPOA and engagement with Tehran, it could lead the Iranian government to change its approach, but Tehran's leaders instead strengthened their foothold in the region. Dori Gold also stated that Iran is seeking to Shiite parts of the region and is even determined to convert the Sunni-majority eastern Turkey to Shiism or, behind the scenes, Iran's proposal to enhance Iranian tourism in Jordan under the guise of bringing Shiites to lesser-known shrines, is aimed at strengthening Shiism in this part of the Middle East. He recalled that during the long period of close cooperation with Sudan, while transferring arms caravans from Sudan for Hamas, Iran harbored ambitions to strengthen its Shiite influence in the region. According to this senior former Israeli official, even when Morocco resumed relations with Iran after a long break, the Islamic Republic did not refrain from its thoughts of spreading Shiism in Morocco and Western Sahara, to the extent that Morocco cut ties with Tehran this spring regarding Iran's cooperation with the Polisario Front, which seeks independence for the Western Sahara region in this country. Retired General Yossi Kuperwasser, a senior former military and political official in Israel, also criticized the European Union for its policy regarding Iran at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs conference, stating that Europeans are still in a state of 'denial,' but they will also have to withdraw their foot from Iran's economy. Along with several other speakers at this conference, there was also an Iranian-born guest via Skype from Britain; Javad Khadem, a member of the cabinet of Shapur Bakhtiar, the last Prime Minister of Iran on the eve of the Islamic Revolution of February 1979; he stated that smart Israelis should find other ways, apart from strategies that are interpreted as intensifying pressure on the Iranian middle class. He expressed that most people in Iran are not anti-Israeli, and proposals made by the Israeli Prime Minister regarding water to Iranians are good, but some Iranians also think that Israel encourages the U.S. to intensify pressure on Iran; an action that ultimately makes life harder for the Iranian middle class. He repeatedly criticized the support of some Trump supporters for the People's Mujahedin Organization of Iran, stating that when Iranians see figures like Rudy Giuliani standing alongside the leaders of the Mujahedin, they become displeased; a reference to Mr. Giuliani's presence at this organization's recent annual conference in France. According to Khadem, 'the world only talks about changing the Iranian government but not about the day after that.'