The Likelihood of Energy Price Increases Strengthens; Gasoline Price Hike is Close Yet Far

Media emphasis on the scenario denying a gasoline price increase next year has given way to whispers of a strengthening likelihood of energy and gasoline price hikes at the top of the list of energy carriers, suggesting that fundamental changes in this sector should be anticipated. The ILNA news agency has approached the former CEO of the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company, Abbas Kazemi, who stated, 'Currently, I do not agree with a tiered price increase.' This former manager emphasized that the only effect of a gasoline price increase is to raise inflation, and the government consumes the revenue from it in current expenditures. This issue is highlighted by most experts, who believe that if the government had invested the revenues from economic reforms at certain times, today Iran's economy would be in a different condition. However, this is merely the opinion of experts, which has only been heard as 'an opinion' and not given much importance in various governments. It seems that the government of Ebrahim Raisi will also pay no attention to them, and today, as one member of parliament stated, 'The government has received the green light for a gasoline price increase from the parliament,' it will seek revenue and solve current problems through increasing energy carrier prices more than ever. Jala Mahmoudzadeh stated yesterday to ILNA that 'The parliament has given a green light for increasing energy carrier prices, which is a danger that the government may suddenly increase gasoline or other energy carriers.' Mahmoudzadeh reported the parliament's green light for the government in the 1403 budget, while the Tasnim news agency also wrote on Friday, December 8, that 'According to the seventh development plan bill, from the second year of this plan, that is, in 1404, subsidized diesel will be distributed solely based on mileage and online waybills, and any excess will be subject to consumption taxes in an incremental - tiered manner.' The legal obligation and authorization in the 'seventh development plan' and the 1403 budget, alongside officials' statements, indicate a significant event in the gasoline sector. In this context, Ahmad Vahidi, the Minister of Interior, stated on Wednesday, December 6, 'One liter of our gasoline is cheaper than one liter of water.' Vahidi emphasized that 'the cheap price of gasoline inherently increases gasoline consumption.' Regarding officials and some parliament members' references to the necessity of economic surgery, several experts have stated that any manipulation of gasoline prices will lead to increased economic pressures and disrupt political and social relations in Iran. The increase in gasoline prices during Hassan Rouhani's presidency in November 2019 led to widespread protests in Iran. In response to these widespread protests, the Islamic Republic resorted to suppressing the demonstrators. In this regard, Reuters reported on December 23, 2019, that approximately 1,500 people were killed in the protests and cited three sources close to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, stating that Khamenei had instructed government and security officials to 'do whatever is necessary' to stop the protests.