The Majority Vote of American Jews for Democrats and Its Consequences for Israel

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, long before the Trump administration came to power in the U.S., launched a wide-ranging campaign in America and the world to achieve his set goals against Iran, largely losing hope in the Obama administration. Netanyahu's harshest criticisms were directed at the U.S. government at the time for its nuclear negotiations with Iran; amidst the open displeasure of the supporters of that administration, he went to Washington in the spring of 2015 at the invitation of Republican congressional leaders and delivered a speech. Obama's supporters viewed his speech as a blow to the Washington government from within, but Netanyahu was not deterred. After the U.S. and other powers reached a nuclear agreement with Iran, Israel continued its severe criticisms of the U.S., and Washington, by agreeing to provide a massive military aid package of $38 billion to Israel, effectively sought to placate Israel to emphasize that Israel's security needs were at the top of its priorities; however, the Israeli government's criticisms of the Obama administration did not cease until the last day of that president's term. Three months before Obama left the White House, with the victory of Republican Donald Trump in the November 2016 elections and Trump's warm positions towards Israel and his admiration for the Israeli political leader, a bright prospect for Jerusalem-Washington relations appeared on the horizon. Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, moved the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to that city, and shortly thereafter withdrew the U.S. from the JCPOA, imposing the toughest sanctions in history against a country on the Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel's 40-year-old adversary, just one day before the recent midterm elections. All of this brought deep satisfaction and pleasure to Israel; and in line with this satisfaction in Israel, it was expected that American Jews would also cast their votes in favor of Trump and his Republican government. However, the results of the recent U.S. midterm elections proved, this time correctly and based on previous predictions, that American Jews voted for the Democratic Party more than ever in recent times. Only in 2006, during George W. Bush's second term, did American Jews vote in favor of Democrats in midterm elections more than this week; 12 years ago, 87% of American Jews supported Democratic candidates for the House and Senate and gubernatorial positions. A poll conducted on October 17 of this year by the American Jewish electoral institute stated that 68% of American Jews are Democrats, but this time 74% of them will vote for Democrats; however, in practice, on the Tuesday that just passed, over 79% of American Jews chose Democrats for both houses of Congress and gubernatorial and state legislative positions. This is while 75% of evangelical Christian Americans supporting Israel chose Republican candidates overall. According to the Israeli newspaper Globes, the dissatisfaction and 'negative view' of American Jews towards Trump's presidency became the driving force for more American Jews voting in favor of Democrats this time. However, AIPAC, the pro-Israel lobby in the U.S., expressed satisfaction with the election results, stating that in an era of extreme polarization, the vast majority of candidates from both parties support Israel's security and efforts to achieve peace with its neighbors. AIPAC added: 'American voters brought 90 new members to the House and Senate; these are individuals whose views passionately support strengthening U.S.-Israel relations.' According to Globes, part of AIPAC's 'satisfaction' stems from the defeat of Leslie Cockburn, the Democratic candidate in a district in Virginia by the Republican candidate, because this 66-year-old filmmaker and investigative journalist was one of the authors of an 'anti-Israel' book in 1991 that criticized U.S.-Israel cooperation and the 'exaggerated influence of Israel in Washington', and AIPAC does not forget Cockburn's actions. Globes also added that another reason for AIPAC's deep satisfaction is the reelection of Senator Robert Menendez from New Jersey; he is one of Israel's most loyal friends in Congress, who was tried on bribery charges in 2015 but was not convicted due to a lack of jury consensus, and both the Democratic Party and AIPAC were concerned that he might not be reelected, but New Jersey voters 'were willing to return this beloved legislator to the Senate with their eyes closed.' According to Globes, 'In fact, all the Democratic leadership that has entered the House of Representatives are staunch supporters of Israel; including Ms. Nancy Pelosi, who is likely to become Speaker of the House again, and Eliot Engel, who is set to be the Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Both are experienced and well-known Jewish politicians and strong supporters of Israel. However, this newspaper noted that AIPAC will certainly miss Peter Roskam, a member of the House of Representatives who was an active and innovative advocate for many laws to increase U.S. security aid to Israel; he lost to his Democratic opponent. According to Globes, it is reasonable that AIPAC would not be pleased with the election of Rashida Tlaib, the first Palestinian-American citizen and a Democrat from Michigan to the House of Representatives; Ms. Tlaib had previously criticized U.S. aid to Israel. However, the liberal left Jewish group in America, known as J Street, which also considers itself pro-Israel but also supports peace between Israel and Arabs, expressed satisfaction with the midterm election results; according to J Street's statement, of the 163 candidates supported by this group, 122 won; this group believes that half of the Democratic senators and House members elected this week support the 'two-state solution' meaning the necessity of establishing a state for Palestinians alongside Israel. According to Globes, the percentage of Jewish Democratic supporters in this election aligns with the statistics from a poll conducted a few days before the election at the request of J Street, which stated that 74% of American Jews have a 'negative view' of Donald Trump, and only 18% described their view of him as 'positive.' Maariv, another Israeli newspaper, also reported that J Street's poll indicated that the majority of American Jews believe that Mr. Trump bears at least some relative responsibility for the Pittsburgh incident as they consider the current state of America a factor in the rise of anti-Semitic behaviors in their country. The midterm elections took place 11 days after a far-right racist and anti-Semitic extremist attacked the 'Tree of Life' synagogue in Pittsburgh, leaving 11 dead, marking the largest anti-Semitic attack on a Jewish location in U.S. history; Mr. Trump, along with his wife and daughter, who converted to Judaism, went to Pittsburgh to console the survivors, but a group of Jews in the city joined the protesters opposing the president's visit. 78% of 1,100 participants in J Street's poll responded to various questions stating that anti-Semitism is on the rise in America; 79% said this situation has intensified since the current administration took office; 79% also said they feel that not only has anti-Semitism increased but also racism in general has intensified; 80% considered the recent rise in anti-immigrant sentiment a cause for concern, and 81% said they are more worried about anti-Semitism now than in the past. A poll last month by the American Jewish electoral institute stated that only 6% think they would vote for Donald Trump in the 2020 elections if he is still a presidential candidate; the other issues raised in that poll were strongly reflected in this week's midterm elections; however, it is still too early to assess whether their 6% support for Trump will materialize in two years. The leftist Jewish group in America also indicated that they are 'worried' about the path Netanyahu has taken Israel down. This opinion comes at a time when Netanyahu remains strongly supported among centrist and right-wing Jews and nearly all Democrats in America, as well as in Israel, and all evidence shows that the satisfaction of Israeli Jews with his governance is very high, to the extent that in the outlook for any upcoming elections, not only will he become prime minister for the fifth time, but his party, Likud, will be strengthened. American Jewish right and centrist groups supporting Israel may present differing polls and realities compared to the polls and positions of the American Jewish left group; however, one fact is no longer a poll; 79% of them did not vote in a poll but in the actual elections in favor of Democrats. Young American Jews, especially first-time voters, have become more Democratic than ever during this period; something that, according to some experts on Israel-U.S. relations, could cause some concern for a right-wing government in Israel; however, Israel emphasizes that support for this country in Congress is 'bipartisan' and that any government that comes to power in America, beyond any of the parties, has supported this 'most important ally in the Middle East.'