The Opposition's Realignment Against Assad and the Consequences of His Fall for Iran's 'Axis of Resistance'

On Monday, several global media outlets examined the realignment of forces opposing Bashar al-Assad following the fall of his regime in Syria, as well as the implications of the destruction of this so-called 'Axis of Resistance' for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Reuters, in an analytical report, recalled the destruction of 'Iran's sphere of influence in the Middle East' after Assad's fall, adding that Israel, the United States, and Arab powers must now grapple with the dangers posed by instability and extremism in the mosaic of forces seeking to overthrow Assad's dictatorship. According to the report, the main opposition group to Bashar al-Assad is 'Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham,' led by Abu Muhammad al-Julani and the former al-Qaeda branch in Syria, which has been classified as a terrorist organization by the United States and the United Nations. Reuters cited three diplomats and three analysts who noted that Westerners and Arabs are concerned that the coalition led by 'Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham' may establish an Islamist government or a weak government unwilling to prevent the resurgence of extremist forces. The Syrian Democratic Forces, led by the Kurds, are the second major opposition group to Assad, controlling about 40% of Syrian territory, including the strategic border crossing with Iraq, as well as a significant portion of the country's oil and gas resources. The rise of the Kurds as America's main ally in the fight against ISIS in Syria has raised concerns for its northern neighbor, Turkey. Turkey has supported a coalition of Sunni groups known as the 'Free Syrian Army' over the past years, taking control of several predominantly Kurdish areas in Syria, including Afrin, Tal Abyad, and Ras al-Ain, from the Syrian Democratic Forces. Recently, the 'Free Syrian Army,' in collaboration with Turkey, has expelled the Kurds from Tal Rifaat near Aleppo and is currently focusing on controlling the city of Manbij in northern Syria. The Assad regime was one of the main links in what the Iranian government calls the 'Axis of Resistance' in the Middle East, and its fall has significantly weakened the Islamic Republic's regional influence. An analytical report by AFP referred to the 'unimaginable' images from just a week ago of the opposition entering the Islamic Republic's embassy in Damascus, addressing the destruction of this 'key link in the Axis of Resistance' and adding that the Iranian government is attempting to align itself with the new reality in Syria. France 24 also noted the release of images of the opposition in the Islamic Republic's embassy in Damascus and torn images of Ruhollah Khomeini, Ali Khamenei, Qassem Soleimani, and Hassan Nasrallah, calling it a 'turning point.' According to France 24, 'Iranian diplomats' and senior officers of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards hastily left Syria the night before the opposition entered the embassy, indicating the Islamic Republic's inability to maintain Assad's regime against the rapid advance of the opposition. Following the opposition's entry into Damascus, the tone of Iranian officials towards them changed, with Abbas Araqchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister, calling for the Assad government and 'legitimate opposition groups' to enter negotiations, whereas the Iranian government had previously labeled all opposition groups as 'terrorists.' The Iranian Foreign Ministry went further on Sunday, calling for the strengthening of Tehran-Damascus relations based on a 'foresighted' approach. France 24's report referenced a statement by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just two days after the October 7, 2023 terrorist attack, in which he said, 'We will change the Middle East.' Following that terrorist attack, Israel began its extensive assault on Gaza, killing thousands of Hamas members and many military commanders and senior officials of this Iran-backed group. Hezbollah, the main proxy arm of the Iranian government, which unilaterally began attacks on northern Israel a day after the October 7 terrorist attack, lost many of its leaders and commanders in Israeli retaliatory strikes and failed to play its previous role in Syria. Now, with Bashar al-Assad's fall, the route for sending weapons through Syria to Hezbollah has been cut off, and the group's power is expected to diminish even further. Although analysts, Western political officials, and many Syrian citizens state that the power vacuum resulting from Assad's fall and the significant fragmentation among his opposition forces have shrouded the country's future in uncertainty, few deny that the Islamic Republic of Iran has been the main loser in the events of the past two weeks in Syria.