The Political Campaign between Turkey and Russia and Its Consequences

The incident of the downing of a Russian Sukhoi 24 fighter jet by Turkish F-16s in Syrian territory has set a new course for Turkey's sixty-fourth government, a situation that has yet to reach a logical resolution. Although NATO fully supported Turkey in the early days, as the crisis intensified, Russia imposed economic sanctions against Turkey, canceled charter flights, banned tourism to Turkey, halted the import of fruits, vegetables, and food from Turkey, and proposed a review of bilateral contracts, limiting the activities of Turkish contractors in Russia. This has prompted some countries related to both Russia and Turkey to pursue mediation. Despite the political and economic repercussions for both Turkey and Russia, the onset of winter and Turkey's hope for financial backing from trade with Russia suggest that the profound impact of canceled trade agreements with Russia could be seen in the short and medium term on Turkey's growing economy. With the severance of economic ties between the two countries, Turkey stands to lose $6 billion in exports and has earned approximately $5 billion from 3.3 million Russian tourists in just the past ten months, according to the Turkish Hoteliers Union. The escalating political disputes between Russia and Turkey extend beyond these issues and could adversely affect regional security and peace. Consequently, U.S. President Barack Obama, during the climate change conference in Paris, urged both parties to reduce political tensions and seek a logical solution to the crisis. While Putin has maintained his position, viewing Erdogan as a supporter of ISIS and considering the downing of the Russian plane as a stab in the back, Erdogan has claimed a lack of sufficient information regarding the nature of the downed aircraft, stating that had they known it was a Russian plane, matters might not have escalated to this extent. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has also intervened, attempting to resolve the crisis through phone calls with his counterparts. On December 2, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry announced in Brussels that Erdogan had committed to closing all transit routes along the Turkey-Syria border, with 98 kilometers of unprotected and uncontrolled border soon to be blocked. Despite Erdogan's requests for a meeting with Putin in Paris not materializing, Lavrov, during his visit to Cyprus, indicated he would likely respond positively to an invitation from Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu for a meeting during the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe summit in Belgrade. Just as hopes were rising for a reduction in the politically charged atmosphere between the two countries, the Russian Defense Ministry held a briefing for the media, where Anatoly Antonov, Russia's Deputy Defense Minister, revealed through satellite images the movements of oil smuggling by ISIS towards Turkey and its unloading at an oil refinery in Batman, Turkey. He explicitly stated that Erdogan's family members are involved in the oil smuggling trade from Iraq and Syria, and that bombing 11 refineries and 32 oil production and loading centers has halved ISIS's revenue. Hours later, Turkish newspapers Sabah, Hurriyet, and Milliyet reported on the reaction of the Turkish President. According to published reports, Erdogan expressed regret over Russia's disproportionate disclosures and stated that if such behavior continues, Turkey would also take reciprocal measures. Previously, Vladimir Putin had declared Turkey as the largest financial supporter of ISIS and other terrorists in Syria. In response to this claim made in Paris, Erdogan stated that he would resign if such allegations were proven. Following the developments on December 2, 2015, it appears that Russia has no intention of reducing tensions with Turkey. Recent statements from Vladimir Putin indicate that a complete resolution of the existing tensions between Russia and Turkey is unlikely. His attitude towards Chechen separatists, the situation in Ukraine, and his recent intensified attacks on ISIS in Syria, including missile strikes and strategic bombers, suggest that Russia will not leave Turkey's actions unanswered. Some Turkish analysts believe that the current situation stems from the Turkish government's failure to correctly interpret foreign policy regarding Syria. Professor Hasan Unal, a strategic issues expert familiar with Eastern European matters from Atilim University in Turkey, believes that Turkey has become very passive on the political chessboard controlled by global powers, and all political forecasts by Turkish officials have rendered Turkey a very ineffective piece in this balance. It is noteworthy that in dealing with Syrian issues, Turkey has not only distanced itself from important neighbors like Russia and Iran, which could have led to strategic political connections but has also faced ideological conflicts with the United States. Today, Turkey is neither able to deter Russia from supporting Bashar al-Assad nor can it prevent the U.S. from arming Syrian Kurds. Meanwhile, the United States has consistently refused Turkey's requests for a buffer zone or no-fly zone, and the European community has facilitated the influx of Syrian migrants, effectively turning Turkey into an open-air prison for them. With rising tensions between Russia and Turkey, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu announced that they would bring their complaint to the United Nations Security Council, asserting that they shot down the Russian fighter jet in support of the Turkmen in the Bayirbucak region of Syria, aiming to clarify their motives to the international community. However, it should be noted that in Turkey's complaint to the Security Council, Russia could use its veto power to nullify any decision. Therefore, it seems that Russia, aware of its position, has entered into conflict with Turkey in a hostile manner. Understanding Russia's objectives in this conflict is not particularly difficult. Following the agreement reached in the Vienna 3 negotiations, Russia believes that the international community desires to eliminate the roots of terrorism in Syria while maintaining Syria's territorial integrity, aiming to achieve a transitional government change within the next 18 months. Consequently, Russia seeks to have areas leading to Latakia and north of the city, extending to the Turkish border, fall under the control of Syrian government forces. In other words, vast areas of western Syrian territory up to the Mediterranean coast should be under the control of the Syrian central government. On the other hand, Russia, along with the United States, has repeatedly conducted military operations against ISIS forces within 98 kilometers of the Turkey-Syria border. However, Turkish military forces are not present in this area; rather, operations are carried out by Turkish-backed forces, specifically Syrian Turkmen. It seems that Turkey finds itself in a situation where it has no common ground for necessary coordination with the political-military positions of Russia and the United States regarding Syria. While Ankara is engaged with issues concerning Turkmen, Kurds, Bashar al-Assad, and Syrian refugees, it now faces the challenge of severing economic, commercial, and military ties with Syria following the downing of the Russian fighter jet. Turkey's only escape from this crisis lies in aligning with the current conditions proposed by the United States and reducing existing tensions, as well as cooperating based on the Vienna 3 negotiation statements. Otherwise, resorting to military forces or NATO support and the resulting excitement could increase political pressures both domestically and internationally on Turkey. It could be summarized in one sentence that Turkey has steered its political ship into a course due to Syria that, if not addressed promptly, will find it difficult to escape the tempests ahead.