The Rampart of Sanctions, Market Principles, and Endogenous Transformation

Ali Dadpay, an economist and university professor, in an analysis written for the newspaper Jahan San'at, summarizes the year 1393 (2014 in the Gregorian calendar). According to Mr. Dadpay, "In the year that is coming to an end, everyone realized that administrative corruption is more widespread than they thought." This university professor further emphasized that "the fight against administrative corruption is not a government mission but a public responsibility." In describing other characteristics of the year 93, he noted that "the process of establishing communication and expanding the economic-political interests of the country is a multidimensional and complex process." This economist stated, "For the first time, many people understood that sanctions were imposed under the pretext of the nuclear program, but in reality, they are the result of the motivations and interests of several countries, and it is a reality that many advocates of sanctions have been and are from friendly and neighboring countries who have used the rampart of sanctions to economically restrain Iran to change the regional atmosphere in favor of their economies." He pointed out that the surpassing number of tourists traveling to Iran over Iranians traveling abroad for the first time in recent years is one of the most important features of the year 93, stating, "We all saw that even in the face of sanctions, economic activity can be increased if we adhere to market principles and emphasize the strengths of our economy." In conclusion, this university professor emphasized that despite the sanctions, the volume of Iran's trade exchanges has increased, stating, "In the realm of economics, transformation begins from oneself and from within the country." According to Ali Dadpay, in the year 94 (2015), "Adhering to economic logic will not be a goal but a universal and accepted principle." *** Hamid Zamanzadeh, an economist and faculty member of the Monetary and Banking Research Institute, in a note he wrote for the newspaper Donya-e-Eqtesad, referred to the economic growth rate of Iran in the first nine months of this year, emphasizing that "Thus, the new government has succeeded in the first step to guide the Iranian economy towards recovery after enduring two years of severe economic recession and recording negative growth figures." This research institute professor further analyzed the factors of Iran's economic growth in 93, stating that "Among the four main economic sectors, the main burden of growth this year has been on the shoulders of the oil and industry sectors." According to Hamid Zamanzadeh, in the shadow of the Geneva agreement, the oil sector and the industrial sector, with the leading role of the automotive industry, have been the locomotive of economic growth. This economist emphasized that he expects Iran's economic growth at the end of 93 to remain a positive figure of around 3 percent. However, while raising the scenario of failed negotiations and intensified sanctions, he predicted that "economic growth in the shadow of further restrictions on foreign trade and the re-emergence of currency instability will take a downward path." Yet, the renewed extension of negotiations under the condition of maintaining the current sanctions regime, for this Monetary and Banking Research Institute professor, means the continuation of slow growth and the Iranian economy. Another scenario that Hamid Zamanzadeh envisions is the success of negotiations and reaching a nuclear agreement, which would be accompanied by the lifting of sanctions and could provide significant momentum for rapidly increasing the growth rate and moving towards economic prosperity.