The Record of an Incomplete Presidency: 34 Months of Ibrahim Raisi

Ibrahim Raisi's name has been intertwined with the case of the execution of thousands of political and ideological prisoners in the summer of 1988 throughout his political life, even when he formed a government in August 2021 as President; however, with his death, another record remains from his three years of managing the country. This record is described by government supporters as positive and even brilliant, while opponents of the Islamic Republic characterize it as another period of further regression for Iran. The data analysis group of Radio Farda has examined the indicators and official statistics to look at Raisi's 34-month presidential record, which is based on facts: from the acceleration of executions in Iran alongside the unprecedented violent suppression of public protests to the collapse of the national currency, the deepening housing crisis, and efforts to strengthen the power of religious seminaries, especially in education in Iran. 1- Inflation and Currency Price One of Ibrahim Raisi's most important electoral promises was to control inflation and stabilize currency prices. The latest official reports from the Statistical Center of Iran indicate that since August 2021, the price index of goods and services has increased by about 2.5 times. In other words, the cumulative inflation rate during Raisi's presidency of two years and nine months has been over 140 percent. The cumulative inflation rate is equal to the product of the annual inflation rate over the past 25 years. In the past 34 months, the price of the dollar in the free market of Tehran has also increased by 2.5 times. At the time of Raisi's government formation in August 2021, the average price of the dollar was less than 26,000 tomans. With Raisi's death in a helicopter crash on May 20 of this year, his unfinished presidential file closed while the average price of each US dollar in May exceeded 61,000 tomans. The data analysis group of Radio Farda had previously examined the performance of Raisi's government until the end of last year. 2- Executions Since the beginning of Ibrahim Raisi's government, the number of executions and other human rights violations, including the suppression and killing of protesters in small and large cities, has intensified again. Human rights statistics indicate that at least 1,808 people were executed in Iran from the formation of his government until his death; in other words, an average of more than 12 death sentences were executed each week. This is while in a 15-year period before he became president, the average recorded was less than 10 executions per week. Additionally, during Raisi's presidency, the most unprecedented protests in contemporary Iranian history were violently suppressed by the Islamic Republic's forces. 3- Financing of Religious Students and Seminaries Raisi's presidency provided a favorable opportunity for religious seminaries to gain more financial resources and potential influence, such as the sixfold increase in the number of students and religious propagators in education. In the past 34 months, his government did not limit itself to the 'Amin Plan' for expanding cooperation between seminaries and executive institutions but also implemented other plans, resulting in a significant increase in the budget for seminaries. According to Radio Farda's research, the total budget for four direct lines for seminaries in 2021 was just over 5 trillion tomans. However, the budget for these four lines in the 2024 budget bill increased to over 15 trillion tomans (three times), while during this period, the general budget resources only doubled. The budget recipients for the seminaries include the Center for Services of Religious Seminaries, the Supreme Council of Religious Seminaries, the Council of Women's Religious Seminaries, and the Council of Religious Seminaries of Khorasan. Under the 'Amin Plan', at least 25,000 students have been enabled to work in schools in Iran, while before Raisi's government, the number of students and clerics working in schools was about 4,000. The data analysis group of Radio Farda had previously examined various aspects of financing this institution. 4- Employment The unemployment rate during Ibrahim Raisi's presidency remained in single digits for a long period. His government officials repeatedly highlighted 'job creation' as a significant achievement in the past three years. However, the reality is that the decrease in the unemployment rate is not a result of business growth but rather a consequence of reduced participation and individuals exiting the labor market and economic activity. According to official statistics, the employed population in 2023 was about 24 million and 490 thousand people. This figure is only 217 thousand more than the employed population in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, while during this period, more than three million people were added to the active population (working-age population). 5- Housing Crisis Building one million housing units annually was one of Ibrahim Raisi's central slogans in the 2021 presidential election; a promise aimed at solving the housing crisis that remained unfulfilled until his death. Instead, the dimensions of this crisis in Iran have expanded. There is no report on the number of housing units constructed during his presidency. However, in examining housing prices over the past two and a half years, not only is there no sign of improvement, but access to housing has turned into an unprecedented crisis in the country. The latest official report on the housing market developments in Tehran dates back to January 2024, which, according to the Statistical Center of Iran, indicates that the average price of one square meter of residential units in Tehran has exceeded 80 million tomans. Meanwhile, the average price of one square meter of residential units in the summer of 2021, at the beginning of Raisi's presidency, was about 33 million tomans. In other words, by 30 months after the formation of Raisi's government, the average housing price increased by about 2.5 times. The upward trend in housing prices has continued while, at best, the average increase in wages and household income is estimated to be about two times. The data analysis group of Radio Farda had previously examined various aspects of the deepening housing crisis in recent years, especially in the capital. 6- Oil Production A 30 percent increase in oil production may be considered the most significant achievement of the incomplete 34-month term of Ibrahim Raisi's government. He became President of Iran when, according to OPEC reports based on secondary sources, Iran's crude oil production volume was less than 2.5 million barrels per day due to U.S. sanctions. However, Raisi's government managed to encourage the Chinese to buy Iranian oil by offering significant discounts in the informal market, and before his presidency was concluded with his death, Iran's daily oil production reached nearly 3.3 million barrels. The data analysis group of Radio Farda had previously calculated that Raisi's government provided about 15 million dollars daily in discounts to Chinese refineries to sell Iranian oil, which is facing U.S. sanctions. 7- Economic Growth Iran's population increased by about 10 percent during the 2010s, but economic growth remained around zero from the beginning to the end of that decade; in other words, the country's economy stagnated, and the Iranian people became poorer. However, during Ibrahim Raisi's government, the country witnessed relative stability in economic growth rates. According to calculations by the Statistical Center of Iran, for the first time in 13 years, the country's economic growth has been above four percent for three consecutive years, and the economic growth curve has reached a relatively stable condition. Many experts, however, assess Iran's economic growth in the past three years as more a result of rising oil prices and production and a relative recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic than tangible economic prosperity. During the 2010s, the imposition of international sanctions against Tehran, the formation of the nuclear agreement (JCPOA), and the renewed intensification of sanctions following the U.S. withdrawal from that agreement in 2019 contributed to economic fluctuations and instability in the country. 8- Population Decline One of Ibrahim Raisi's government's priorities was pursuing a policy known as 'population youthfulness.' He and his government officials attempted to encourage people to have children using financial resources and employing propaganda such as the slogan 'support for families,' while on the other hand, by implementing strict regulations such as criminalizing abortion and restricting birth control methods, they pressured women to have children. According to previous research by Radio Farda, in 2023 alone, at least 50 trillion tomans of government financial resources were allocated to population increase policies. However, this extensive investment did not change the trend of population decline by the time of Raisi's death. Official statistics from Iran's Civil Registration Organization indicate that despite the government's incentive plans for family formation and childbirth, as well as the restrictions imposed on birth control, marriage and childbirth rates have decreased in the past 34 months, while divorce and mortality rates have increased.