The Republic of Disqualifications

In the last hours of Friday, December 25, as the doors of the registration centers for candidates for the Parliament and the Assembly of Experts were closing, the file of "qualification reviews" was opened again, placing the second round of electoral competitions in the hands of the Guardian Council members. After the increase in the number of candidates for the tenth Parliament and the fifth Assembly of Experts reached a record high since the 1979 Revolution, some members of the Guardian Council and political figures from the conservative camp raised their voices in protest, deeming it an ambiguous action and a "conspiracy of the seditionists." They claim that the rival faction has registered extensively to put the Guardian Council in a bind, and if faced with widespread disqualifications of their own forces, they will resort to creating a narrative against the members of this council and the system. However, reformists and some moderate conservatives reject such reasoning, viewing the broad participation in the two buildings of Baharestan and the Parliament as a sign of increasing public hope and a move towards more enthusiastic elections. Despite this interpretation, the likelihood of widespread disqualifications is a common point among political currents. Especially since in the past week, many Friday prayer leaders and conservatives have explicitly and harshly urged the Guardian Council to show no leniency towards those they label as "seditionists and supporters of enemy infiltration," as well as individuals who, according to them, have not clarified their position with the seditionists. Meanwhile, 12 jurists and clerics of the Guardian Council also share this view, as reported by Tasnim News Agency, with the spokesperson of the Guardian Council, Naghdatollah Ebrahimi, emphasizing that the "words and actions" of candidates that represent support for sedition and similar titles, which have been raised as red lines by the system and leadership, will be the criteria for their qualification review by the Guardian Council. In contrast, the Supreme Council for Reformist Electoral Policy, in its first statement, has requested that the responsible bodies for conducting elections only review the qualifications of candidates for the two upcoming elections based on legal documents. This is a demand that reformists and a number of jurists have had in all elections for over two decades, since the Guardian Council's interpretation of Article 99 of the Constitution, which has led to the "supervisory" role of the Guardian Council being interpreted as "discretionary"; however, none of the protests or legal amendments have yielded results so far. In fact, discretionary oversight was implemented after the death of Ayatollah Khomeini and on the eve of the fourth parliamentary elections. The result was the elimination of about one-third of the candidates for the fourth Parliament, and this process has continued to repeat itself. A look at the statistics of disqualifications in nine parliamentary elections after the revolution, as reported by Iran's news network, reveals the impact of the council's performance on the political arrangement of parliamentary seats. Now, in the tenth Parliament and the fifth Assembly of Experts elections, reformists and a group of moderate conservatives again feel the blade of disqualifications at their throats. For reformists, who after two periods of restrictions, elimination, and confrontations during Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's presidency and the events of the 2009 elections, see these two elections as an opportunity for a return to power. The results of the qualification reviews are expected to be announced in February, and reformists are waiting to finalize their electoral list after that time. On the other hand, conservatives face other problems. Although the Guardian Council's discretionary oversight is not a concern for them, internal divisions and the fragmentation of this faction pose a greater danger. While reformists are trying to return to power, conservatives seek to maintain their position; however, it seems their efforts to achieve a coalition and prevent the multiplicity of candidates and diversity of electoral lists have not yet succeeded. This faction held its first nationwide meeting last Thursday under the title "Insight and Renewing the Covenant with the Leadership" in the conference hall of Tehran's Mosalla; however, from the very beginning, the absence of prominent figures such as Ali Akbar Nategh Nouri, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, Ali Akbar Velayati, Ali Larijani, Saeed Jalili, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, and Mohsen Rezai was noticeable. Additionally, according to reports, Reza Taqvi, the deputy of the Combatant Clergy Association, stated that Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi, head of the Imam Khomeini Institute, was on his way to the hospital and Ayatollah Yazdi, secretary-general of the Society of Teachers, was not in good health to attend. On the other hand, around the hall, supporters of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, his cabinet, members of the newly established Yekta party, and members of the Veterans' Society were seated. Individuals such as Sadegh Mahsouli, Morteza Aghatehrani, Mehrdad Bazrpash, and Zahra Teyyebzadeh from the Steadfast Front, and Hossein Fadaei, Lotfollah Forouzandeh, Elias Naderan, and Parviz Sorouri from the Veterans' Society. Alireza Zakani from the Path of Revolution Society, Hamid Reza Hajibabaei, Seyyed Mahdi Hashemi, Seyyed Mohammad Hosseini, Mohammad Abbasi, Masoud Zaribafan, Gholamreza Khajehsorouri, Mohammad Ali Ramin, and Sadegh Khalilian from the Yekta Front, and Hossein Allahkaram from the Ansar Hezbollah. The situation was such that the speeches at this conference largely turned into warnings. As Gholamali Haddad Adel, the spokesperson for the conservative coalition, addressed his peers, saying, "If anyone breaks this unity, they will have to pay the price in this world and the hereafter." Mohammad Ali Mohammadi Kermani, the secretary-general of the Combatant Clergy Association, also warned: "Let there be no arrogance and share-seeking among conservatives. We must have a state of mind that if the product of the decision of the conservative coalition council results in the selection of better individuals and no one from my type is on the list of selected candidates, I should not be the slightest bit upset." However, it seems that these words have no impact on the political behavior of the leaders of this faction. First of all, Ali Larijani and members of the Followers of the Velayat faction separated their path from the conservative coalition. Also, last Thursday, on the same day that the conservatives' conference was held, Hossein Ghorbanzadeh, the secretary-general of the Islamic Progress and Justice Front and a companion of Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the mayor of Tehran, along with several members of this front, visited Seyyed Hassan Khomeini in Jamaran. This meeting shocked the right-wing camp. Following that, news was published that Mohammad Reza Bahonar threatened that if Hamid Rasai, Mehdi Koochakzadeh, and Mahmoud Nabavian were included in the final list, he would exit the coalition, but this news, like many others these days, was denied by the public relations of the Engineers' Society. However, Ali Akbar Nategh Nouri himself denied his support for the conservatives. His office issued a statement indicating that the head of the inspection office of Ayatollah Khamenei was making every effort for maximum participation of the people, as well as the presence and competition of various political groups that believe in the system and the guardianship of the jurist, but he has not supported or cooperated with any specific political group. His statement was in response to Gholamali Haddad Adel's remarks, the spokesperson for the conservative coalition, who in his press conference last week stated: "Mr. Nategh is with the conservatives and will provide the necessary assistance." Based on such an atmosphere, Gholamali Jafarzadeh Imanabadi, a conservative member of Parliament and one of the members of the Followers of Velayat faction, stated in an interview with the newspaper "Vaghaye Ettefaghieh" that "the conservative coalition has failed; conservatives have so far proven that due to their specific spirit, they cannot gather under one umbrella."