The Revolutionary Guard is Eyeing the Selection of the Future Leader in the Elections

According to Reuters, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is quietly supporting a hardline candidate in this year's presidential election to maintain its dominant security role and extensive economic interests, as it has its sights set on a larger goal: the succession of the current leader of the Islamic Republic. The news agency writes in an analysis that Hassan Rouhani, who won the 2013 election with promises of social freedoms and reducing Iran's international isolation, has the highest chance of victory again this year. However, the IRGC and the Basij have begun their efforts to support his main rival, hardliner Ebrahim Raisi. Media affiliated with the IRGC have criticized Rouhani's performance, and experts say the organization will likely use all its resources to mobilize support for Raisi and bring them to polling stations. Hardliners in the Iranian government are concerned that Rouhani's second term could diminish the IRGC's control over the country's security and economy. Regardless of who wins the presidential election, the IRGC's larger goal is to control and influence the process of selecting the leader of the regime, whose power and authority far exceed that of the elected president. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has been the leader of the Islamic Republic since 1989, is now 77 years old. Some experts suggest that Raisi's candidacy in the presidential election is a test for someone being prepared for succession. According to the Islamic Republic's constitution, the leader's successor is elected by the Assembly of Experts, whose members were elected last year for an eight-year term. Rouhani himself is a member of this assembly and among those who received the most votes, with his allies winning nearly all the seats in the assembly in Tehran. However, many assembly members are not clearly affiliated with either the hardline or reformist factions, meaning that the faction that wins the presidential election could gain an advantage in garnering support for its candidate for the leadership position. The IRGC has long identified its preferred candidate. In mid-March, the organization arrested several administrators of a reformist social media network on Telegram. From the perspective of reformists and critics, this action by the IRGC is a blatant interference in electoral activities and against forces that the IRGC sees as its rivals. According to human rights organizations, Ebrahim Raisi was a member of the committee responsible for mass executions in the summer of 1988 and has established close relationships with senior IRGC commanders during his time in the judiciary. Reuters adds that although efforts are made to keep Ayatollah Khamenei's personal views from becoming too public, it seems that the leader of the Islamic Republic supports both Raisi's candidacy for the presidency and the possibility of him succeeding as the leader. According to his official biography published on his website, Raisi studied in Ayatollah Khamenei's jurisprudence classes for 14 years. In 2015, Khamenei appointed him as the custodian of the Astan Quds Razavi, a religious foundation with multi-billion dollar income and economic activities. After his appointment, a delegation of senior IRGC commanders, including the commander of the force, the commander of the Basij, and Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force, visited Raisi in Mashhad. One of the main reasons the IRGC wants to have its preferred candidate in the presidential election and the leadership succession is the internal security of the country. The IRGC was the main force in suppressing widespread protests following the 2009 election, during which, according to human rights groups, dozens were killed and hundreds arrested. The second reason is the vast economic interests of the IRGC and its affiliated institutions, which cover various sectors from oil and petrochemicals to mining and construction, estimated to be worth billions of dollars.