The Strategy of 'Looking to the East' by Ayatollah Khamenei Under Critique

Ayatollah Khamenei has always been a critic of the West, especially the United States. However, for several years now, he has become an advocate of Easternism. Regarding this approach, I have previously discussed it in articles such as 'Iran and Russia, and Khamenei's Dual Policy', 'How Khamenei Created the Bipolarity of Pro-Russian and Pro-Western Factions?', 'Khamenei and the Definitive Ruling on Iran and Islam and the Anti-Shiism of the U.S. Government', and 'Putinism: Khamenei's Model and Conservatives Who Consider Russia Their Ally'. Nevertheless, discussing this important strategy is of great significance. One can always look at an issue or a point of contention from a different perspective. On February 18, 2018, Ayatollah Khamenei reiterated: 'In foreign policy, the preference for the East over the West, the preference for neighbors over distant countries, and the preference for nations and countries that have commonalities with us over others is one of our current priorities.' Justifying the change in approach from the slogan 'Neither East nor West, Islamic Republic' to 'No West, Easternism' requires justification. Some of Khamenei's followers have attempted to rationalize this approach. Consider the following two cases: First - Ali Akbar Velayati, senior advisor to the Leader on international affairs, in a lengthy interview with the Tasnim news agency on September 16, 2018, sought to theorize Khamenei's strategy of looking to the East and respond to critics. He stated: a - The idealistic slogan 'Neither East nor West' was against liberal democracy and communism. The Soviet Union and communism have been destroyed, and Putin's Russia is not only not communist, but he also goes to church on holy days with bishops. b - The leadership has stated that while not denying the West, we must have a strategic look to the East (Russia, China, India, Japan, Pakistan, etc.) because 'the whole world is looking to the East now.' c - While the West, led by the U.S., has sanctioned Iran, no rational person would put the country in a deadlock. First: Selling oil is vital for Iran, and China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil. China 'buys about $40 billion worth of oil from us annually.' Second: China, Russia, and India have stated they will buy oil from Iran even under American sanctions. Third: These countries, which have made significant technological advancements and will lead in the future, have no problem transferring technology to Iran. Russia sold Iran the 'S-300'. 'We have no problem obtaining our advanced defense needs from Russia. Currently, nuclear power generation in Bushehr is being carried out by the Russians.' Fourth: Russia and China veto anti-Iranian resolutions in the UN Security Council. China in the economy and Russia in defense industries can meet Iran's needs. Velayati's claims contain at least two blatant lies; firstly, the Chinese government has never purchased $40 billion worth of oil from Iran in any year. The highest year is much lower. Secondly, Russia and China voted for all UN Security Council resolutions against Iran. If they hadn't, they wouldn't have been passed to be later revoked after the nuclear agreement with a new resolution. Second - Major General Seyed Yahya Safavi, senior assistant and advisor to Ayatollah Khamenei, also stated on October 15, 2018, regarding this matter: 'In terms of foreign policy, our focus must be on the East.' Because, a - The conflicts and geostrategic rivalries of the U.S. with Russia and the geoeconomic competitions and conflicts with China and the European Union, or some countries like North Korea, present an opportunity for the Islamic Republic of Iran to unite against U.S. unilateralism. Therefore, we must develop our economic and political relations with Asian powers such as Russia, India, and China and take practical steps for permanent presence in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. b - Developing defensive and economic diplomacy with 15 neighboring countries creates many opportunities for the Islamic Republic. Signing non-aggression pacts with neighboring countries such as Pakistan and Iraq and connecting communication routes through Pakistan, Iraq to the Mediterranean and even Central Asia, alongside economic revenues for the country, can also be very helpful in security matters; if we connect the Khorramshahr railway to Basra, it means we have connected Central Asia to the Mediterranean by rail. c - To transform Iran into the first power in the Middle East, we must utilize Iran's superior geopolitical and geostrategic position in the region to achieve the goals of the 1404 outlook, even with a 10-year delay. Justifying the Eastern look with scientific progress Ayatollah Khamenei, in a meeting on October 17, 2018, with more than two thousand 'young elites and top scientific talents', stated that only through scientific advancement can we reduce the danger from our civilizational enemies. Thus, 'scientific communication with countries that are on the path of leapfrog growth, [i.e.,] Asian countries, must primarily be directed towards the East; looking towards the West and Europe and such does not yield anything for us except for delays, troubles, and begging.' We must look towards the East; there are countries that can help us, we can face them as equals, we can help them, and they can help us, and we can have scientific exchanges with them. Khamenei's new justification is as follows: a - Some Eastern countries have had and are having leapfrog growth. b - Pursuing the West is fruitless. c - Relations with Eastern countries are based on equal standing. d - Scientific relations with the East are a type of exchange, not begging and asking for favors. Does Iran have anything other than raw materials - especially oil - to offer to advanced Eastern countries that have had and are having leapfrog growth? Ayatollah Khamenei answers positively. He speaks of Iran's scientific advancements. He said that Iran's population has been about one percent of the world's population. Therefore, at least one percent of the world's scientific production should belong to Iran. However, Iran's scientific production, which was 0.1 percent of the world when the revolution occurred in 1979, has now increased to 1.9 to 2 percent. Regarding scientific production, several centers rank countries. The growth of Iranian publications in scientific journals has also been reflected in Haaretz on May 2, 2018. According to the Scopus website, Iran ranks first in the Middle East in terms of the total number of scientific articles published in reputable scientific journals. Iran ranks 17th globally. In biochemistry, genetics, and molecular biology, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel rank first to fourth, respectively. In chemical engineering, Iran is first, and Israel is fifth. In chemistry and computer engineering, Turkey is first, Iran is second, and Israel is fourth. In economics, in 2016, Iran was sixteenth, and Israel thirty-second. According to another source, the global ranking is as follows: 1- USA. 2- China. 3- UK. 4- Germany. 5- Japan. 6- France. 7- Canada. 8- Italy. 9- India. 10- Spain. 11- Australia. 12- South Korea. 13- Russia. 14- New Zealand. 15- Brazil. 16- Switzerland. 17- Taiwan. 18- Sweden. 19- Netherlands. 20- Turkey. 21- Belgium. 22- Iran. 23- Denmark. 24- Austria. 25- Israel. According to the same institute's research, the ranking of Middle Eastern countries is as follows: 1- Turkey. 2- Iran. 3- Israel. 4- Egypt. 5- Saudi Arabia. 6- UAE. 7- Jordan. 8- Lebanon. 9- Kuwait. 10- Qatar. 11- Iraq. 12- Oman. 13- Syria. 14- Palestine. 15- Bahrain. 16- Yemen. The ranking of countries by Nature is as follows: 1- USA. 2- China. 3- Germany. 4- UK. 5- Japan. 6- France. 7- Canada. 8- Switzerland. 9- South Korea. 10- Australia. 11- Spain. 12- Italy. 13- India. 14- Netherlands. 15- Singapore. 16- Sweden. 17- Israel. 18- Russia. 19- Taiwan. 20- Denmark. 21- Austria. 22- Belgium. 23- Brazil. 24- Poland. 25- Finland. 26- Czech Republic. 27- Norway. 28- Portugal. 29- New Zealand. 30- Saudi Arabia. 31- Ireland. 32- Iran. 33- Chile. 34- Argentina. 35- Mexico. In all rankings, the USA is first and China second. Japan, South Korea, India, and Russia also have good standings. Here, several issues arise: a - The significant population differences among countries: a country with 10 million, 80 million, 300 million, and over a billion differ from each other. b - The high percentage of publications in specialized journals alone is not indicative; the citation rate of these articles gives a new ranking to countries. Considering this variable, although Iran's situation remains good, its ranking declines. c - More than half of scientific production in the USA comes from immigrants. Fareed Zakaria wrote in 2008: 'America's leadership in innovation is significantly a product of immigration. Foreign students and immigrants constitute 50 percent of the country's scientific researchers, who in 2006 were able to obtain 40 percent of PhDs in science and engineering and 65 percent of PhDs in computer science. In 2011, foreign students will obtain more than 50 percent of PhDs in any field in America. In the sciences, this figure will be close to 75 percent. Half of the founders of startups based in Silicon Valley are either immigrants or first-generation Americans. America's achievements in the new wave of productivity, its leadership in nanotechnology, biotechnology, and its ability to invent the future all rely on the country's immigration policies. If America can retain the talent it trains, innovations will occur here, and if these talents return to their countries, their innovations will accompany them.' (Fareed Zakaria, The Post-American World, translated by Ahmad Azizi, Hermes, pp. 206-205). The reality has surpassed Zakaria's predictions. According to a report by the National Foundation for Policy, most master's and doctoral graduates in science and engineering are foreign students. That is, 81 percent of electrical and oil engineering graduates, 79 percent of computer science graduates, and 63 percent of economics graduates are foreign students. America has the best universities in the world. This factor and other facilities have been very effective in attracting brains from other countries. If we look at the Nobel Prize and theories in experimental natural sciences and humanities, the high share of the Western world is undeniable. The relationship with leapfrog economic growth Ayatollah Khamenei emphasizes relations with Eastern/Asian countries that have had leapfrog economic growth. China is the best example of such countries. According to the World Bank, the annual average economic growth of China and Iran from 1979 to 2018 was 9.5 percent and 2 percent, respectively. According to the World Bank, the annual average foreign investment in China and Iran from 1979 to 2018 was $83 billion and $1 billion, respectively. According to the World Bank, Turkey's total foreign debt at the end of 2016 reached $405 billion and 656 million. Iran's total foreign debt at the end of 2016 was $5 billion and 378 million. China's total foreign debt at the end of 2016 was $1 trillion and 429 billion. Of course, China's foreign reserves are unparalleled. The total debt of the U.S. government is $21 trillion and 665 billion. About one and a half trillion dollars of U.S. foreign debt belongs to China. The non-democratic political system is a common feature of Iran and China. China's dictatorship is behind Iran in terms of distance from democracy, freedom, and human rights. No criticism or dissenting voice is heard from China, unlike Iran, where even all rulers harshly criticize each other day and night. China has sent one million Muslims, mainly from the Uyghur minority, to camps known as 're-education centers' to change their traditional Islamic beliefs to Chinese communist ideology through brainwashing. The genocide of Muslims in Myanmar is also considered an internal issue, and along with Russia, they prevent the condemnation of this country in the UN Security Council. On October 24, Russia and China even tried to prevent the UN Security Council from holding a session on the reading of the report of the fact-finding committee regarding the genocide of Muslims in Myanmar and crimes against humanity by the government of this country. However, the session was held, and the atrocities were recounted, although Russia and China did not allow anything against Myanmar to be passed. They have always been staunch supporters of the totalitarian communist regime in North Korea. Along with Russia, they refrained from condemning the murder of Khashoggi by the Saudis. So what variable or variables can justify the enormous economic differences between China and Iran? Foreign policy is a very important variable and plays a decisive role in this story. After Hassan Rouhani's second election, I addressed this fundamental issue in articles such as 'Rouhani Without an Agreement Will Not Be Able to Solve Economic Issues', 'Changing Foreign Policy is a Condition for Solving Economic Issues', and 'Regional JCPOA, Yes? No? The Costs of Compromise and Resistance'. However, Ayatollah Khamenei and his followers have no listening ears. Now that the focus is on 'looking to the East' and learning from the 'leapfrog growth' of the Chinese, it is better to hear this organizing principle from the voice of the Chinese leadership. Hassan Rouhani, in 2003 as Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and head of the nuclear file, had a private meeting with the Chinese Foreign Minister. The Chinese Foreign Minister told Rouhani: 'First, do not abandon the three European countries, because you will not easily find a replacement power. Do not pursue China and Russia, because in the agency and in the international arena, the effectiveness of Europe compared to China and Russia is not comparable. Do not rely on us and think that we can stand against the U.S. in the Security Council and use the veto. Second, I tell you frankly that the volume of our economic and trade relations with Europe and America is very high. The volume of our exports and imports amounts to a thousand billion dollars in total. Our trading partners are mainly the U.S., Japan, and Europe, and the share of other countries is not comparable to these three; therefore, if you expect us to stand against the U.S. and Europe, we cannot do this for at least another 20 years. We need a period of calm to reach our economic and technological goals.